The Reserve Bank will have sufficient comfort that high inflation has been defeated and cut interest rates in the first half of 2025, but relief for borrowers may not arrive until after Australians go to the polls in the federal election.

Economists surveyed by The Australian Financial Review predict the RBA’s May 19-20 meeting will mark the start of a modest easing cycle, based on the median forecast of 36 respondents. While an election could be called at any time, the Albanese government appears likely to propose a date after the March 31-April 1 RBA meeting. It must be held by May 17.