The NT News looks at the predictions and tips for Round 4 of the NTFL
We’re into Round 4 of the NTFL and it is shaping up to be a tight one with close games across the board. We’ve looked at each match and predicted who will win and why.
Local AFL
Don't miss out on the headlines from Local AFL. Followed categories will be added to My News.
We’re into Round 4 of the NTFL and we’re expecting it to be a tight with close games across the board.
At Gardens Oval on Friday Waratah will be looking to please their home faithful in a testing match against a strong Palmerston Magpies.
Then on Saturday we have a massive encounter between old rivals Wanderers and St Mary’s who both have a point to prove.
In other games, Nightcliff will face a hapless Tiwi Bombers at Nightcliff Oval, and on Sunday a bolstered Buffaloes host Southern Districts at Cazalys Arena.
Find out who we’re tipping for Round 4 and why.
WATCH ROUND 4 LIVE AND EXCLUSIVE
Waratah v Palmerston Magpies
Waratah will be hoping to bounce back to winning ways in front of their home crowd, but it won’t be a walk in the park against a star-studded Palmerston.
The home side slumped to their first loss of the season when they made the trip out to Norbuilt Oval to face Southern Districts.
Usual ball-getters struggled to get their hands on the leather at Freds Pass with Eddie Morris getting the most of it with 19 touches.
But with some key returns and in the interest of celebrating captain Brodie Carroll’s 100th match in the red and white they will be hungry for the win.
Carroll will be looking for a taste of the action all night, while Jayden Magro and a returning Abe Ankers will also be danger-men.
However, they come against a Palmerston who have looked solid, excepting for Round 2 v PINT, so far this season.
The attention will be on Eddie Betts and his fellow AFL stars Neville Jetta and Travis Varcoe, who all played vital roles in Palmerston’s first win against Nightcliff since 2015.
But some of their best performers have been from their non-AFL contingent including Baxter Mensch who currently tops the league in disposals.
Nichols Medallist Eric Guthrie was as possessed as ever racking up the possessions, but also topping the clearances (six) and tackles (11).
He’s a man Tahs have to keep locked down or their night will become very difficult, but their eyes will have to be all over from Ashton Hams to Phil Wills.
Palmerston have the pressure game in their arsenal now and will make the match tough, but Tahs at home is a tough ask for anyone.
Our tip: Waratah by 15
Nightcliff Tigers v Tiwi Bombers
The Tigers, smarting after a six-point loss to Palmerston at Cazalys Arena, will be looking to reassert themselves as a benchmark side in Men’s Premier League.
Coming off a bye, Nightcliff were strangled by the Pies’ pressure, with 50 tackles to 26 for the game, while they simply didn’t get their hands on the ball enough: 280 touches to 215.
The likes of usually lethal leather-hunters Brodie Filo and Shaun Wilson were kept to below 20 touches.
However, the Tigers could welcome back some X Factor in 16-year-old Phoenix Joe Pool, a NT News Rising Star nomination from Round 1 after two brilliant goals against PINT.
And Nightcliff should get plenty of six-pointers out of South Adelaide recruit Sam Overall, who slotted four majors on debut against the Pies in Round 3.
The Bombers will be feeling a touch more confident after getting within four points of Buffaloes, albeit they were saved by Buffs’ inaccuracy, kicking 7.22.
Their cause will also suffer from their third suspension in as many weeks, with former Giant and Bulldog Sam Darley rubbed out for a week for striking, joining Dion Munkara and Tristan Singh-Lippo on the sidelines.
Hard to see the Bombers winning their first game – since February, 2020 – at Nightcliff Oval.
Our tip: Tigers by 36 points.
St Mary’s v Wanderers
St Mary’s and Wanderers will both be out to prove a point when they face off in Round 4.
There will be plenty of meaning in this clash with the traditional rivals both having suffered two losses each early in the season.
Reigning premiers St Mary’s gave PINT their first ever victory in the Men’s Premier League last week and will hoping to make up for it.
They bounced back keenly from their Round 1 loss to Waratah with an absolute demolition of Tiwi Bombers in Round 2.
That redemption did not continue against PINT and some may be starting to question the hunger of this St Mary’s side.
Jackson Calder, Nate Paredes and Dylan Landt are as good a group of players as any, but for all their individual efforts were unable to inject themselves into their Round 3 match.
Landt topped the disposals with 22, and will need some assistance from those around him to make a mark against Wanderers.
Eagles, on the other hand, have looked dependent on recently retired AFL player Steven Motlop, and fragile elsewhere.
For his part, Motlop has been stellar kicking eight goals from two games and topping the possession count in both.
On paper this is a strong Muk Muks team with Brodie Newman, Braedon McLean, Dane McFarlane and Beau O’Connell all able to turn it on.
Ed Simpson and Darren Shillabeer up front add plenty of goal scoring potential to complement Motlop, they just have yet to fire.
In fairness, the Eagles were not out of either of their matches against Buffaloes or Districts, they just ran out of gas in the final term.
They’re not far from turning performances into results and when they do they have the capacity to be a force.
But Saints know they have to respond and understand how to win the matches which matter.
Our tip: St Mary’s by eight points.
Darwin Buffaloes v Southern Districts
Southern Districts will venture away from Freds Pass for the first time in the 2022-23 Men’s Premier League after a solid and a stellar win over Wanderers and Waratah respectively so far.
While the Crocs again look to be without former Hawk Dallas Willsmore, the Buffs’ cause – who were particularly inaccurate last round with 7.22 – has been bolstered by the addition of former Carlton and Brisbane player Mitch Robinson, who makes his debut for Buffs at Cazalys Arena.
Considering Robinson has voiced his desire to play a 15th season at the highest level, and was playing in an elimination final only last month, expect him to have an influence on Sunday.
The Buffs also welcomed back Tom Baulch last round who picked up 30 touches and two goals while key defender Bradley Stokes has been huge yet again down back: second in the league for intercept marks and defensive 50 rebounds – second only to PINT’s Ben Smyth.
Meanwhile, the Buffs will have their own matchup headaches with fellow former Lion, midfielder Cam Ellis-Yolmen was almost impossible to tackle last round at Norbuilt Oval, while picking up 24 possessions and going at 80 percent by foot.
Frazer Driscoll is also providing solid rebound from defensive 50 for the Crocs as they ran Waratah ragged while the likes of forwards Luke Smith, Roy George and Matt Shannon have the ability to damage any team in the competition.
They have contributed 16 goals between them after just two games, giving coach Shannon Rusca plenty of options to kick a winning score.
With Buffs keen to improve its kicking game and the Crocs chasing three successive wins, this could be one of the games of the round.
Our tip: Southern Districts by 12 points
ROUND 3 PLAYER RATINGS AND KEY MATCH UPS
It was a Round 3 that brought surprise after surprise from a first ever win for the league’s newest side to a couple of underdog victories.
In the men’s competition it was Districts, Buffaloes, PINT and Palmerston who came out on top.
While in the women’s competition Waratah, Buffettes, Nightcliff and PINT came away with a victory.
WATCH ALL 2022-23 NTFL LIVESTREAMS HERE
DISTRICTS THE SIDE TO WATCH
Southern Districts coach Shannon Rusca was clearly a busy man over the offseason, and likely has a large phone bill to show for it.
The Crocs have started the season beautifully, 2-0 with the scalps of Wanderers and Waratah so far on their home deck, with a largely remodelled team.
And their best 22 is largely unrecognisable compared to last season’s 12-point elimination final loss to the Eagles.
On Saturday against Tahs, only nine remained from that defeat: Luke Smith, Dean Staunton, Michael Bowden, Beau Schwarze, Ethan Maney, Kaiya Jones, Frazer Driscoll, Brandon Rusca and Tom Boustead.
However, Districts have drafted in some absolute top shelf quality, with former Palmerston ruck Matt Dennis already ruling the air and Cam Ellis-Yolmen almost impossible to tackle in a 37-point defeat of Tahs at Freds Pass.
Crocs have also bolstered their forward line with the likes of Matt Shannon from Carlton’s VFL team, Roy George from Peel Thunder, Dallas Willsmore (Hawthorn) plus onballers Kaine Stevens (West Adelaide) and SANFL premiership player Kai Pudney (Woodville-West Torrens).
With the side still gelling, teams with top five aspirations will need to take a closer look at what is developing at Norbuilt Oval.
Districts vs Waratah votes:
3. Cam Ellis-Yolmen (Districts)
2. Matt Dennis (Districts)
1. Ronald Fejo Jr (Districts)
PINT MAKE THEIR DENT
PINT may have unearthed a handy sharpshooter for the 2022-23 season as the Greenants pulled off the biggest boilover of the season so far.
Coming off a Round 2 match where they only had 16 men able to run against Palmerston, the Men’s Premier League debutants beat reigning premier St Mary’s 13.5 (83) to 7.11 (53) at DXC Arena, as Victorian recruit Jett Trotter kicked three majors.
With the Saints holding a two-point lead at half time, the home team kicked 8.3 to 2.6 as St Mary’s lost their radar.
Long-term NT News reporter Grey Morris said it was one of the biggest upsets since the late 1980s, when a struggling Waratah knocked off league leaders St Mary’s by a point at Gardens Oval.
Mark “Jacko” Jackson made a one-off appearance for Tahs, slotting five.
Meanwhile, Trotter, playing his second game for the Greenants for the season, has slotted 157 goals from 91 games for Euora in the Goulburn Valley League since the 2016 season.
PINT, who have the bye this weekend, will also be looking to regain forward Chris Nield - who kicked 82 goals from 20 games for Mooroopna in the Goulburn Valley Football League in 2022 - from a hand injury suffered in Round 2 before the Greenants travel to Wurrumiyanga to take on the Tiwi Bombers.
PINT vs St Mary’s votes:
3. Jett Trotter (PINT)
2. Kyle Irving-Winter (PINT)
1. Luke Oborn (St Mary’s)
QUEENANTS A SIDE TO WATCH
PINT has emerged as a serious challenger for the Women’s Premier League premiership, with two 100-point plus wins so far this season.
The Queenants have so far beaten last year’s grand finalists Nightcliff, Palmerston by 120 points and then St Mary’s by 107 on Saturday.
Casey Morris has been among the goals with eight majors from her three games so far, after slotting 23 majors in PINT’s 2020-21 premiership year.
Reni Hicks and Morris have been among the best each week and have helped set the tone for the side looking to repeat their 2020-21 glory.
And the Queenants will also welcome back former Adelaide Crow Jasmyn Hewett at the end of 2022, after her aviation firefighter studies are complete.
However, they have yet to face either the reigning premiers Darwin Buffettes and form side Waratah and will face a true test when they do.
PINT vs St Mary’s votes:
3. Reni Hicks
2. Casey Morris
1. Erin Hetherington
BUFFS KICKING WOES
Tiwi Bombers were within an inch of scoring their first Men’s Premier League win in almost 1000 days.
It would have been a massive result for a side that hasn’t tasted victory since February 15, 2020, but had they won it would have largely been the result of their opponent’s inaccuracies.
Buffaloes had 29 scoring shots against the Bombers, but were only able to kick through the middle on seven of those occasions.
Proven scorers such as Liam Holt-Fitz and Jayden Kickett kicked three behinds each without a goal between them.
But they were not the only ones unable to make a real impression on the scoreboard as everything from snaps to set shots went wayward for the Double Blues.
They will take solace in the fact they created so many opportunities, but against better sides than Tiwi, having so many wasted chances could spell doom.
Buffaloes will be looking to shore up their goal kicking, because next up is a red-hot Districts side looking to maintain their early unbeaten run.
And with the Crocs defence firing, Buffaloes will need to take every goal they can get.
Buffaloes vs Tiwi votes:
3. Bradley Stokes (Buffaloes)
2. Sam Darley (Tiwi)
1. Ryan Pendlebury (Buffaloes)
PALMERSTON’S PRESSURE GAME THE KEY
After three rounds it’s Palmerston who sit on top of the table after claiming one of its biggest scalps in recent years, Nightcliff.
Curiously, last time the Magpies beat Nightcliff was also in Round 3 at Cazalys Arena, way back in the 2015-16 season.
Geelong champion Mathew Stokes and former Essendon player Leroy Jetta featured in that game, and fittingly, Jetta’s distant cousin Neville Jetta played in the 2022-23 win.
On Saturday, it was Palmerston’s pressure game which won the contest, strangling Nightcliff.
In defence, Jetta and big recruit Ashton Hams were everywhere, catching the experienced Tigers out.
A telling stat was the fact that not a single Tiger got more than 16 disposals, with James Gow, Daniel Bowles and Brodie Filo topping the list.
However, Palmerston’s top possession getters saw much more of the ball with six players exceeding 16 touches, including Baxter Mensch who managed 31.
Tigers couldn’t withstand Palmerston’s pressure, and though the match was close, the second half tipped further and further in the Magpies’ favour.
Palmerston now have to guard their position in Round 4 and it will be a tough assignment against a strong Waratah side at home.
The Tahs will be looking to make someone pay after their Round 3 loss to Southern Districts and it will take all of the Magpies’ star power to hold them at bay.
Palmerston vs Nightcliff votes:
3. Baxter Mensch (Palmerston)
2. Eddie Betts (Palmerston)
1. Eric Guthrie (Palmerston)
Red Centre icon lauds return of interleague rivalry
A Central Australian footy icon will lead the CAFL against a visiting NTFL outfit to reignite an interleague rivalry after a 41 year hiatus. Read why he hopes it will become an annual event.
‘Very fortunate’: Rugby icon’s road to recovery after post-match heart attack
A Darwin rugby icon and former Fijian international suffered a heart attack post-match earlier this season, now he’s spoken on his recovery and the need for every club to have an AED machine.