May
Why Sussan Ley should say no deal to the Nats
Unless the Liberal Party regains the support of professional women, it is difficult to see how it, with or without the National Party, can form government.
How a likely Coalition win turned into a Labor landslide
Anthony Albanese just grew in confidence as the campaign progressed – and more voters than just the party faithful responded.
How the Greens’ disastrous strategy will help Albo win
The party’s embrace of dubious housing policies, the corrupt CFMEU and “genocide” claims has alienated its base. John Black explains.
April
Albanese’s lucky streak is getting real
The prime minister is hoping his luck holds out until May 3. He’s probably only going to get one Peter Dutton in this life.
March
Albanese wins anti-Trump vibe, but Dutton in front seat by seat
According to the punters, a more conservative crossbench of 11, minus a couple of teals and Greens, would be willing to support a Coalition government.
The election will be about who the mob distrusts the least
Whichever of the two major party leaders winds up prime minister, they will have been elected grudgingly.
February
Tips for reading the polling on who will win the election
In terms of measuring how the primary vote stands for the major parties at the moment, the Resolve poll could be right, after all.
Victoria byelection results could be terminal for Albanese
If state Labor and the Greens can’t hold state seats such as Werribee and Prahran in Victoria, things are looking terminal for the Albanese government.
December 2024
It looks like Albo might need that beach house in 2025
There is a disconnect between the prime minister’s regime and its senior ministers, which is starting to trigger bad memories for me of the Whitlam government.
October 2024
Labor can take no comfort from Queensland election
ALP candidates won over many traditional Green voters on Saturday, but there is little sign of the party picking up federal seats in early 2025.
Queensland vote a pivotal moment for Greens
Unlike in the 2022 federal election, the Coalition is preferencing Labor ahead of the Greens for this weekend’s state election.
Labor’s chance of holding on to power was slim. Now it’s wafer thin
Anthony Albanese’s chances of holding an angry caucus together at the next election were already low, now they have withered to almost nothing.
September 2024
Both sides have a chance of forming minority government
My current estimates are that the Coalition will comfortably win more seats in the House of Representatives than Labor next year.
July 2024
The Muslim vote was a disaster for Starmer and could be for Albanese
An analysis of the 23 seats in the UK where Muslim Vote candidates opposed Labour, resulted in an unmitigated disaster for the party. Repeated here, it would be a wipeout for Labor in western Sydney.
March 2024
How migrants are changing the face of Australian politics
Aspirational migrants and their families will be the fastest growing demographic chunk of suburban Australia for at least the next two decades.
State polls position Albanese for a second term
Polling booths around the country show Labor’s support base is growing enough for another narrow federal win.
Dunkley exposes further shift away from major parties
With the core demographics exposed and projected nationally, the byelection points to a narrow majority for Labor in 2025.
February 2024
Working women swing to Labor – and to private schools
As soon as families can afford it, they have been switching to independent schools. No amount of public money is likely to reverse that soon.
December 2023
Odds for 2024 point to another close Labor win in 2025
A growing number of Australian voters are looking for genuine leadership in both major parties, but find them wanting.
October 2023
Dutton understands Labor voters better than Albanese
Coalition wins for the No vote from 2022 Labor two-party preferred voters were huge, and spread across what used to be safe ALP outer-suburban or provincial city seats.