February
Tips for reading the polling on who will win the election
In terms of measuring how the primary vote stands for the major parties at the moment, the Resolve poll could be right, after all.
Victoria byelection results could be terminal for Albanese
If state Labor and the Greens can’t hold state seats such as Werribee and Prahran in Victoria, things are looking terminal for the Albanese government.
December 2024
It looks like Albo might need that beach house in 2025
There is a disconnect between the prime minister’s regime and its senior ministers, which is starting to trigger bad memories for me of the Whitlam government.
October 2024
Labor can take no comfort from Queensland election
ALP candidates won over many traditional Green voters on Saturday, but there is little sign of the party picking up federal seats in early 2025.
Queensland vote a pivotal moment for Greens
Unlike in the 2022 federal election, the Coalition is preferencing Labor ahead of the Greens for this weekend’s state election.
Labor’s chance of holding on to power was slim. Now it’s wafer thin
Anthony Albanese’s chances of holding an angry caucus together at the next election were already low, now they have withered to almost nothing.
September 2024
Both sides have a chance of forming minority government
My current estimates are that the Coalition will comfortably win more seats in the House of Representatives than Labor next year.
July 2024
The Muslim vote was a disaster for Starmer and could be for Albanese
An analysis of the 23 seats in the UK where Muslim Vote candidates opposed Labour, resulted in an unmitigated disaster for the party. Repeated here, it would be a wipeout for Labor in western Sydney.
March 2024
How migrants are changing the face of Australian politics
Aspirational migrants and their families will be the fastest growing demographic chunk of suburban Australia for at least the next two decades.
State polls position Albanese for a second term
Polling booths around the country show Labor’s support base is growing enough for another narrow federal win.
Dunkley exposes further shift away from major parties
With the core demographics exposed and projected nationally, the byelection points to a narrow majority for Labor in 2025.
February 2024
Working women swing to Labor – and to private schools
As soon as families can afford it, they have been switching to independent schools. No amount of public money is likely to reverse that soon.
December 2023
Odds for 2024 point to another close Labor win in 2025
A growing number of Australian voters are looking for genuine leadership in both major parties, but find them wanting.
October 2023
Dutton understands Labor voters better than Albanese
Coalition wins for the No vote from 2022 Labor two-party preferred voters were huge, and spread across what used to be safe ALP outer-suburban or provincial city seats.
Demographics explain how we voted on Saturday
The haves voted to share their wealth, the have-nots wanted someone to notice them, too.
Tracking the Voice decline starts with Albanese
Having made a hot mess of the referendum, Albanese is now offering to work with the opposition in the unlikely event the Yes case wins. It’s all a year too late.
September 2023
Albanese will have only himself to blame for losing the Voice
ALP campaign veterans are now trying to work out how the prime minister has diminished the Yes vote to its current desperate position.
July 2023
Dear Albo, here’s why Fadden shows your honeymoon is over
Young voters deserted Labor in the Fadden byelection and renters turned on the Greens. Tarting up the result as anything other than trouble for the Albanese government is a mistake.
May 2023
It’s less rosy than it looks for Labor
The next two years look a lot tougher than the first and, like Howard in 1998, Albanese would be well advised to take some substantial economic reforms to the next election.
March 2023
Albanese’s aspirational left piggybacks NSW Labor to close win
Meanwhile, the genuine battlers in our community are drifting off to the Coalition via right-wing fringe parties.