December 2024
- Opinion
- Federal election
It looks like Albo might need that beach house in 2025
There is a disconnect between the prime minister’s regime and its senior ministers, which is starting to trigger bad memories for me of the Whitlam government.
October 2024
- Opinion
- Federal election
Labor can take no comfort from Queensland election
ALP candidates won over many traditional Green voters on Saturday, but there is little sign of the party picking up federal seats in early 2025.
- Opinion
- Federal election
Queensland vote a pivotal moment for Greens
Unlike in the 2022 federal election, the Coalition is preferencing Labor ahead of the Greens for this weekend’s state election.
- Opinion
- Federal election
Labor’s chance of holding on to power was slim. Now it’s wafer thin
Anthony Albanese’s chances of holding an angry caucus together at the next election were already low, now they have withered to almost nothing.
September 2024
- Opinion
- Federal election
Both sides have a chance of forming minority government
My current estimates are that the Coalition will comfortably win more seats in the House of Representatives than Labor next year.
July 2024
- Analysis
- Israeli-Palestinian conflict
The Muslim vote was a disaster for Starmer and could be for Albanese
An analysis of the 23 seats in the UK where Muslim Vote candidates opposed Labour, resulted in an unmitigated disaster for the party. Repeated here, it would be a wipeout for Labor in western Sydney.
March 2024
How migrants are changing the face of Australian politics
Aspirational migrants and their families will be the fastest growing demographic chunk of suburban Australia for at least the next two decades.
- Opinion
- Hobart
State polls position Albanese for a second term
Polling booths around the country show Labor’s support base is growing enough for another narrow federal win.
- Opinion
- Byelection
Dunkley exposes further shift away from major parties
With the core demographics exposed and projected nationally, the byelection points to a narrow majority for Labor in 2025.
February 2024
- Opinion
- Private schools
Working women swing to Labor – and to private schools
As soon as families can afford it, they have been switching to independent schools. No amount of public money is likely to reverse that soon.
December 2023
- Opinion
- Political leadership
Odds for 2024 point to another close Labor win in 2025
A growing number of Australian voters are looking for genuine leadership in both major parties, but find them wanting.
- Updated
October 2023
- Opinion
- Voice to parliament
Dutton understands Labor voters better than Albanese
Coalition wins for the No vote from 2022 Labor two-party preferred voters were huge, and spread across what used to be safe ALP outer-suburban or provincial city seats.
- Opinion
- Voice to parliament
Demographics explain how we voted on Saturday
The haves voted to share their wealth, the have-nots wanted someone to notice them, too.
- Opinion
- Voice to parliament
Tracking the Voice decline starts with Albanese
Having made a hot mess of the referendum, Albanese is now offering to work with the opposition in the unlikely event the Yes case wins. It’s all a year too late.
September 2023
- Opinion
- Voice to parliament
Albanese will have only himself to blame for losing the Voice
ALP campaign veterans are now trying to work out how the prime minister has diminished the Yes vote to its current desperate position.
July 2023
- Analysis
- Political leadership
Dear Albo, here’s why Fadden shows your honeymoon is over
Young voters deserted Labor in the Fadden byelection and renters turned on the Greens. Tarting up the result as anything other than trouble for the Albanese government is a mistake.
May 2023
- Opinion
- Federal election
It’s less rosy than it looks for Labor
The next two years look a lot tougher than the first and, like Howard in 1998, Albanese would be well advised to take some substantial economic reforms to the next election.
March 2023
- Opinion
- NSW Election
Albanese’s aspirational left piggybacks NSW Labor to close win
Meanwhile, the genuine battlers in our community are drifting off to the Coalition via right-wing fringe parties.
- Analysis
- Federal election
The rise of the ‘aspirational left’ voter who is remaking politics
Australia’s aspirational migrant population has drastically altered the shape and direction of Australian politics.
December 2022
- Opinion
- Federal election
The stars have aligned for Albanese. But 2023 is another matter
The bookies have Labor being safely returned. But there are problems ahead next year in population, the economy, housing, energy, health and education.