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John Black

Odds for 2024 point to another close Labor win in 2025

A growing number of Australian voters are looking for genuine leadership in both major parties, but find them wanting.

It looks like 2024 will be a re-run of 2023 in many respects, albeit with some signs of cresting and then stabilising for population growth, prices and interest rates.

We are also likely to see some stabilisation in Labor’s political fortunes in Western Australia, following the mid-2023 retirement of the state’s popular premier Mark McGowan. Our modelling of the 2022 election voting showed the Mark McGowan government was worth a flat 6 per cent to that year’s federal Labor Party vote in WA.

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John Black is a former Labor senator for Queensland. He is executive chairman of profiling company Australian Development Strategies, and of Education Geographics.

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    Original URL: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/odds-for-2024-point-to-another-close-labor-win-in-2025-20231212-p5eqv2