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Labor’s chance of holding on to power was slim. Now it’s wafer thin

Labor’s chance of holding on to power was slim. Now it’s wafer thin

Anthony Albanese’s chances of holding an angry caucus together at the next election were already low, now they have withered to almost nothing.

John BlackElection analyst

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A month ago, Anthony Albanese had a slim chance of remaining prime minister after the next election. Over the past week, this slim chance has disappeared.

Last month, the loss of primary votes from Labor since the election across the states in opinion poll averages and in by-elections, had Labor losing some 13 of its current 78 seats to the Coalition and the Coalition picking up these 13, plus one seat from a renegade Liberal MP, two seats from the Greens in Brisbane and one from the teals. This put the Coalition on 72 seats, leaving 65 for Labor. With 13 on the crossbench.

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John Black
John BlackElection analystJohn Black is a former Labor senator for Queensland. He is executive chairman of profiling company Australian Development Strategies, and of Education Geographics.

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Original URL: https://www.afr.com/politics/state-elections-will-be-key-for-labor-s-grip-on-power-20241016-p5kits