If you’re a dedicated election watcher like me, don’t get too excited about any one opinion poll, including the Resolve Political Monitor poll in The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age this week, which had Labor heading for a big defeat.

I’m a fan of the Resolve Poll because I’ve found it measures the tangent to the opinion curve better than the other free polls available in the media. It also responds quickly to current events, and it’s got some pretty useful state breakdowns.