The NT News predicts who will win in Round 13 of the 2022-23 NTFL season
The Christmas break is done and the NTFL is back which promises to be a massive round. We’ve analysed each match and predicted who will win and why.
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Footy’s back after a two-week break and Round 13 will throw up plenty of interesting NTFL contests.
At TIO Stadium, Darwin Buffaloes will be looking to claim its first Men’s Premier League top five scalp when it takes on third-placed St Mary’s.
Then, Waratah will try to put PINT in its place at Gardens Oval after a competitive five rounds from the Greenants.
Nightcliff will also be after two consecutive wins for the first time this season since late October when it plays Wanderers at TIO.
Then to close out the round, Southern Districts travels to Cazalys Arena to take on a Palmerston team that has named Eddie Betts in the starting side.
Darwin Buffaloes v St Mary’s
TIO Stadium – 4.30pm
Will the Saints’ twin towers loom large over this contest at TIO Stadium like last time?
Back in Round 9, Brandyn Grenfell and Chaney medallist Jackson Calder combined for 11 goals and just as many forward 50 marks as St Mary’s won by 28 points.
However, this week’s incessant rain might make things difficult for the big men.
In a similar vein, Saints midfield jets Dylan Landt and Nate Paredes ran rampant last time with 60 possessions (including 42 uncontested) between them while the former had an astonishing 13 inside 50s.
It was a reality check for the Buffaloes, keen to atone for last year’s disappointing sixth place.
Buffs need a major scalp to show they are the real deal against the competition’s best.
Darwin lost to both Waratah and St Mary’s in successive rounds recently, and have not yet beaten a team from the current top five in 2022-23.
The closest they have come was a Round 4 match against top-placed Southern Districts which was abandoned due to an injury to Nick Weightman, with Buffs leading by 26 points until that point.
Our tip: St Mary’s by 20 points.
Waratah v PINT
Gardens Oval – 6pm
A couple of major ins for Tahs whose collective ego will have been bruised somewhat after being easily beaten at home by emerging premiership contender, Southern Districts in Round 12.
Ryan Ayres and his brains trust have named Abe Ankers, who was perhaps the difference last time these two met at DXC Arena in the wet in Round 9, his last previous appearance in Men’s Premier League this season.
The Central Australian kicked two all-important goals as the Tahs withstood a Greenants assault after half time to win by 13 points.
Ankers collected 13 ground ball gets and five clearances to go with his dual clutch majors which came just when PINT looked like breaking the back of Waratah.
Will Collis has also been named for his third Men’s Premier League match of the season.
Meanwhile, PINT will be playing with real belief of a finals appearance in their debut season in Men’s Premier League.
After belting Palmerston, and getting with 13 and 14 points of Waratah and the reigning premier respectively over the past four rounds, will the Greenants play the closing rounds with more freedom and less expectation than other teams in contention?
In a similar vein, Geelong recruit Damian McMahon was effective last time they met with 18 touches and 11 marks (all uncontested) and went to the Christmas break in red-hot form.
He has led the possession tally for his club the last three rounds with an average of 30.
Our tip: Waratah by 18 points.
Nightcliff v Wanderers
TIO Stadium – 7pm
It’s getting to the pointy end of the season and few teams will be feeling the pinch more than the Tigers and Eagles.
To keep its head above water, the sixth-placed Nightcliff must now try to do what it hasn’t achieved in more than two months: win two games in a row, after beating Palmerston before the Christmas break.
It was the Tigers’ first win since late October as they stared down the very real chance of their first finals miss in a decade.
With Palmerston off the boil, Nightcliff have the chance to ward off another challenger for fifth place in the Eagles whose form has been patchy at best.
The Muk Muks got the better of Nightcliff last time they met in Round 9 as Braedon McLean collected 27 touches (at 81 per cent efficiency) and seven rebounds from defensive 50.
However, it is going to be a serious test for Chris Baksh’s men without its most effective player of the season, the unnamed Brodie Filo (plus Daniel Bowles missing yet again).
Filo is pretty much irreplaceable for Nightcliff, leading the club for disposals, uncontested and contested possessions, marks and uncontested marks, handball receives, ground ball gets and clearances.
Nightcliff’s inability to kick winning scores in 2022-23 has also taken another hit, with the majority of its top five goal kickers (Filo, Michael Mummery, John Butcher) reportedly MIA this round.
Our tip: Wanderers by 12 points.
Palmerston v Southern Districts
Cazalys Arena – 7pm
An opportunity for the Pies to bury a few mental scars after their last meeting with Southern Districts was declared a forfeit due to a fly-in breach.
It appears Palmerston’s key goal kicker Eddie Betts is back – who hasn’t played since that day at Norbuilt Oval in Round 9 – while Travis Varcoe is again named after telling this publication he was unlikely to add to his four MPL matches early in the season.
The Pies have only lost once with Betts in the side, and even then he slotted four against Waratah in Round 4.
However, Palmerston appear to be missing one of their key defensive pieces in Sam Clohesy for the second round in a row.
Clohesy was among his team’s best last time they met in Round 9 as the Crocs kicked 4.15 at Freds Pass.
The Crocs will be keen to maintain their excellent pre-Christmas form after dispatching Waratah and St Mary’s in successive weeks.
But the Saints showed Districts are certainly gettable and could have easily pinched the chocolates in that Round 11 clash, if not for a few Jackson Calder misses late in the game.
Our tip: Southern Districts by 30 points.
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