The NT News predicts who will win in Round 17 of the 2022-23 NTFL season
We’re into the penultimate round of the NTFL competition with finals bound sides gunning to make an impression. We’ve analysed each match and predicted who will win and why.
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We’re into the penultimate round of the NTFL competition with finals bound sides gunning to make an impression ahead of the knock outs.
Kicking off the action will be Palmerston hosting Tiwi Bombers at Cazalys Arena, with both sides hunting a win and some pride ahead of the end of the season.
Then, it’s the grand final rematch between Waratah and St Mary’s and both teams have a score to settle.
The other match include PINT’s last outing against Nightcliff at DXC Arena, and face-off between Darwin Buffaloes and Wanderers.
Palmerston Magpies vs Tiwi Bombers
After vastly disparate starts to the season, the Magpies and Bombers have walked similar paths from November onwards in Men’s Premier League this season.
Palmerston began 2022-23 in a blaze of glory with four wins and a draw from its first six starts, complemented by the recruitment of one of the greatest of all time, Gary Ablett Jr.
However, the Pies never recovered from having its Round 8 and 9 fixtures deemed forfeits for fly-in breaches, with their last legitimate win on November 5 against the Darwin Buffaloes.
With some of their best players departing (Tristan Waack, Sam Clohesy), the Pies have used the opportunity to blood some youngsters, like teenage debutants Jordan Clyne, Warrick Campbell and Brandon McConnell in Round 16 against the reigning premiers.
Meanwhile, the Bombers’ last win, and only one for 22-23, was against PINT in late October while forfeiting a match on its own terms: unable to field a competitive team against Waratah in Round 14.
These two sides should be desperate to finish their seasons with a win, both coming off massive losses in Round 16.
The Bombers were belted by 90 points while the Pies were kept to just 16 points in a 120-point smashing at TIO Stadium.
Buoyed by the re-appointment of coach Josh Heath, a game at home though could give Palmerston the edge but there’s no escaping this is Tiwi’s best chance of a win in a long time.
With Harley Bennell set to play VFL down south, and some older, more seasoned bodies, the Bombers are poised to send the former Sun, Docker and Demon off with Tiwi’s second win of the year.
Our tip: Tiwi Bombers by six points.
St Mary’s vs Waratah
St Mary’s and Waratah both have a score to settle when they clash in the Round 17 grand final rematch at TIO Stadium.
Last time these sides met, in Round 1, it was Waratah who got their revenge after losing the 2021-22 decider, beating St Mary’s by 101-points at Gardens Oval.
But Waratah won’t be satisfied until they claim a premiership, which they haven’t managed since 2000.
The Tahs come into this encounter fairly well rested having played as a collective just once in the past three weeks, that being a win in the Foundation Cup match against Wanderers.
Vice-captain Dylan Collis has been the form player in the side, picking up 275 disposals across 12 matches this season, and in recent weeks has made a move out of the backline and into the midfield and forward 50.
He will pair up with brother Will, featuring in his fifth match of the season, and the South Fremantle-bound Robbie Turnbull, forward of centre.
Elsewhere, Jayden Magro has been absolutely dominant in front of goal, booting 45 this season, with Darcy Hope a more than adequate second option with a return of 26 majors from 12 matches.
That brings us to one of the interesting subplots to emerge from this face-off with St Mary’s full forward Jackson Calder currently sitting on 41 goals.
With only two matches remaining, this is a crucial match for the Saint if he wants to defend his 2021-22 Dennis Dunn title.
The Green Machine absolutely demolished Palmerston in Round 16 with Dylan Landt the key contributor in the midfield, racking up 36 possessions and four goals.
It was a performance which should see him garner more votes for the Nichols Medal, while brother Jack Landt was also dynamite, booting six in just his second match of the season.
Saints are a much changed side to the one which got demolished early in the season and have options across the field, either in defence or attack.
This will be a close one and both sides are more than likely to meet again in just two weeks for the qualifying final clash, but overall match fitness might tip the game in the Saints’ favour.
Our tip: St Mary’s by eight points.
PINT vs Nightcliff Tigers
It’s the end of the line if the Greenants can’t overcome a resurgent Nightcliff who found their goal kicking boots in Round 16, producing their biggest score for the season (128).
PINT, two points adrift of fifth-placed Darwin Buffaloes and facing a bye in the final round, were disappointing against Southern Districts, offering up just 5.5 at Freds Pass in its most important game of 2022-23.
For a side which has remained competitive each week, it was also their biggest loss for the season, fortunate to go down by 34 points as the Crocs hogged the inside 50 count (50-34) and contested possessions (121-92), only to kick 9.15.
However, it returns to its home turf at Marrara where the Greenants are always a tough opponent, with a win over St Mary’s and brave in defeat to Waratah in the wet.
The Greenants will need to curb the influence of John Butcher and Sam Overall who contributed 13 goals between them as the Tigers produced a near season-high nine inside 50 marks in the wet in the second quarter against Buffs.
However, on a brighter note for PINT, if PlayHQ can be relied upon, Bailey Edwards, James Gow and Brodie Filo have not been named while Shaun Wilson is out for the rest of the season with a shattered collarbone.
Wilson has been a crucial piece for the Tigers despite their mid-season woes, second for the club for disposals, uncontested marks, handball receives and goals, and fourth for inside 50s, uncontested possessions and clearances.
Far from being a high scoring team, the Greenants will be keen to keep this one a relatively low scoring affair like the majority of Nightcliff’s five wins on the trot.
Our tip: Nightcliff by 24 points.
Wanderers vs Darwin Buffaloes
The Darwin Buffaloes could lock down their finals position if they manage to see off Wanderers in Round 17.
Buffaloes still fit fifth on the table and look likely to play finals in a couple of weeks’ time.
However, they have faltered when it comes to playing the big sides, having won only one match against a current top five side, downing Nightcliff in Round 8.
At the time, Buffs were one of the form sides in the comp, but in the eight rounds since that match their win-loss record sits at a disappointing 2-5.
Their most recent losses to sixth-placed PINT and in Round 16 to Nightcliff have put a dent in the Double Blues’ momentum.
It will be a trend coach Cam Stokes and his charges will be eager to overturn, not only to secure a finals position but to also make an impact if they qualify.
Jarrod Stokes has been far and away the side’s best player this season with 242 disposals and 13 goals from 12 games, and he should be complemented in the midfield by the possible return of former AFL player Mitch Robinson.
But to get their season back on track, the Buffs need their forwards, particularly Liam Holt-Fitz and Daniel Stafford, to nail their opportunities.
Meanwhile, goal kicking is a problem Wanderers have struggled with all season and the main reason they sit outside the five.
That seemed to change in Round 16 when they demolished the Tiwi Bombers with Steven Motlop kicking 12 goals, while Ed Simpson and Keelan Fejo also made an impression.
A lot of those chances came from the midfield, with Beau O’Connell and Thomas Boyes particularly influential.
It was something the Muk Muks have been looking for all season with defensive titans Mitchel Taylor and Brodie Newman largely carrying the side.
Wanderers are still an outside chance at making finals, but their destiny remains in the hands of others.
But the question is: can Wanderers do that against a better side than Tiwi? Or will Buffaloes be too composed to allow such dominance in the midfield?
Our tip: Buffaloes by 12 points
WHAT WE LEARNED FROM ROUND 16
The fight for finals is all but done with Round 16 proving decisive for a number of hopeful sides.
In the men’s competition Wanderers, Nightcliff, Districts and St Mary’s all grabbed a win.
While in the women’s competition Tiwi, PINT, Buffaloes and St Mary’s all claimed victory, with 12 goals from Kaitlyn Armstrong seeing the latter side home.
Wanderers grab some pride
Wanderers won back some pride in a performance finally reflecting the talent on their list.
Former AFL star Steven Motlop stole the show, kicking 12 goals against the Bombers for a Muk Muks side who have struggled to kick winning scores this season.
At Gardens Oval in Round 16, the Eagles had a new lease on life and were no longer playing under the pressure of fighting for finals.
The defence set the tone with Brodie Newman and Mitchel Taylor living up to their high standards they’ve maintained all season, especially when the Bombers fought back.
Key to their win, however, was the midfield of Beau O’Connell, Nathan Arbon and Thomas Boyes feeding their forwards the ball all afternoon.
Now, they were playing against bottom side Tiwi, but for a Wanderers side who had struggled in front of goal all year, the win was a step in the right direction.
Realistically, Aaron Motlop’s men will not make finals.
But if they keep the core of their squad together, manage to get a few more games out of the likes of Dane McFarlane, Keelan Fejo and Liam Patrick and with a bit more depth, they have the makings of a potential finals outfit.
Tyson Whyte is the latest product they’ve brought through and his Round 9 Rising Star nomination proved his credentials, but more young guns are needed.
Wanderers still have a role to play in this season with their match against Buffaloes a finals make-or-break for their opposition, while they could deny St Mary’s a double chance in Round 18.
Player ratings Tiwi vs Wanderers
3. Steven Motlop (Wanderers)
2. Beau O’Connell (Wanderers)
1. Brodie Newman (Wanderers)
PINT’s season hangs by a thread
The Greenants’ season hangs by a thread after a crushing loss to Districts at Freds Pass.
After building a measure of momentum in recent weeks, that Round 16 result appears to reveal the true story of PINT’s inaugural Men’s Premier League campaign.
A 34-point buffer was perhaps not a true reflection of the contest, too, as the Crocs kicked 9.15 in an effort resembling its wayward 4.15 against Palmerston in Round 9.
Curiously, it was the Greenants’ biggest loss for the season and perhaps the most soul-destroying.
Trailing the Double Blues by two points on the MPL ladder, PINT simply has to beat Nightcliff at Marrara in Round 17 with a bye to close out the home and away season.
It appears a loss and draw to Tiwi Bombers, and a four-point heartbreaker to Districts, earlier in the season, could come back to haunt them.
The Greenants have been brave and perennially competitive, but simply not produced enough consistency in the W column to challenge for the top five.
They have not gone on any great runs in 2022-23, with wins against Wanderers and Buffaloes recently the only time it has banked two in a row.
So now it will also need to rely on the Buffs dropping matches to Wanderers – who returned to form with Steven Motlop and Ed Simpson combining for 15 majors between them – and ladder leaders Crocs.
But there is a glimmer of hope for Shannon Motlop’s squad.
While Buffs were leading Districts by 26 points in Round 4 before an injury to Nick Weightman caused the game to be abandoned, they’re arguably in season-worst shape at the wrong time of the year.
Player ratings Districts vs PINT
3. Jack Sexton (Districts)
2. Luke Smith (Districts)
1. Kaine Stevens (Districts)
Nightcliff are the form side
Nightcliff returned to its potent best in Round 16, kicking its highest score of the season and hitting triple figures for the first time since late October against the Tiwi Bombers, winning by a commanding 70 points.
While the Tigers have maintained their reputation as one of the stingiest defences in Men’s Premier League, its ability to kick big scores had taken a hit by the loss of Kyle Emery and Liam Holt-Fitz and the unavailability of John Butcher and Trent Melville.
Over its four-match winning run, the Tigers have kicked an average score of 58.
However, at Nightcliff Oval on a damp Saturday evening, the Tigers caught alight once more with its highest-scoring quarter of the season: 7.6 in the second term.
And while interstate recruits Butcher and Sam Overall (South Adelaide) pulled down a raft of marks, it was the delivery which was just as impressive.
On a number of occasions Tiger midfielders hit either Butcher or Overall hard on the chest, with low, precise passes, as the duo slotted 13 goals between them.
The likes of Brodie Filo and Cam Ilett were particularly effective, as the Buffs defence was out-marked or exposed for a lack of size and height.
Winning the past five games in a row, Nightcliff will now face a PINT team fighting for its survival, needing nothing less than a win at DXC Arena; a ground where the Greenants have beaten St Mary’s and pushed Waratah this season.
Curbing the Tigers’ two-pronged attack will be the top of the agenda when team meetings are held this week.
PINT may also need to conjure a few multiple goalkickers to match the resurgent Tigers’ much improved outfit.
Player ratings Nightcliff vs Buffaloes
3. John Butcher (Nightcliff)
2. Brodie Filo (Nightcliff)
1. Sam Overall (Nightcliff)
Saints dominant in the rain
St Mary’s delivered a statement to the rest of the league when they limited the Palmerston Magpies to just 16 points.
The Saints had slipped against Nightcliff, conceding key goals late that ultimately lost them the match.
However, hell bent on a quick bounce back, the reigning premiers looked close to untouchable against the Magpies.
Despite their fight, Palmerston were unable to score more than two goals, reflecting a season which has fallen apart since their dual forfeits before the Christmas break.
It was a broadside from St Mary’s in the wet, reminiscent of their mauling of Waratah in last season’s Round 16.
As the rain fell, Palmerston were unable to apply their pressure game, and as a result, St Mary’s were able to run riot with goals coming from every angle.
A further positive was the return of Lucas Jellyman-Turner and Jack Landt, who were both in the team’s best and should play key roles in finals.
Landt in particular was explosive in front of goal in the third quarter, adding a second option beside Jackson Calder, who kicked four himself.
Most impressive, however, was Dylan Landt, who racked up possession after possession in the midfield, threatening the goals late.
For the Saints, this is where they need to be if they want back-to-back premierships - even if they will want to conjure a performance like this against a better defensive side.
A well-rested Waratah in Round 17 should bring that test.
Player Ratings St Mary’s vs Palmerston
3. Dylan Landt (Saints)
2. Jack Landt (Saints)
1. Lucas Jellyman-Turner (Saints)
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