The NTFL clubs most likely to make the final five in the 2022-23 season
There’s just one month to go before finals in the NTFL Men’s Premier League, and there’s still a few places up for grabs. We look at the run home and predict who will finish where.
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The Men’s Premier League regular season is entering its final month and the last four rounds look set to throw up some interesting questions.
Will Southern Districts hold on to top place after an ordinary day against Nightcliff?
Can St Mary’s get revenge on a Waratah outfit which flogged them by 101 points in Round 1?
Have Nightcliff truly turned the corner?
Can PINT make the finals in their debut season?
Will the Buffaloes take a major scalp before the end of the home and away season?
And who will finish in the final five?
We take a closer look at which contests might influence the final five and how it is likely to look after Round 18.
Men’s Premier League – the run home to finals
SOUTHERN DISTRICTS
Last month: Tiwi Bombers (win), PINT (win), bye, Darwin Buffaloes (win).
The ladder leaders – holding a slender two-point lead from Waratah – have a relatively smooth ride into finals despite producing arguably their worst performance in Round 14 against Nightcliff.
Tiwi have little to play for besides pride, PINT face a difficult challenge to make the five with a bye still to come and Darwin Buffaloes have not taken a genuinely big scalp this year.
Predicted finish: First
WARATAH
Last month: Wanderers (win), bye, St Mary’s (win), Palmerston (win).
Apart from a delicious Round 17 rendezvous with the reigning premier, the Tahs should easily dispatch the Eagles and Magpies, with both enduring forgettable seasons.
But the big test comes against St Mary’s who Waratah flogged by 101 points in Round 1.
Plenty of water has gone under the bridge since then.
However, there is an argument that St Mary’s could still be a touch underdone when they face Tahs, with an interrupted run after Christmas following a bye and a break for the representative match.
The same can be said for Waratah though, who will have played two games since Christmas by their Round 17 showdown.
Predicted finish: Second
ST MARY’S
Last month: Nightcliff (win), Palmerston (win), Waratah (loss), Wanderers (win).
A testing few games against a resurgent Nightcliff and premiership contender Waratah, mixed in with two games you can pretty much take to the bank as wins: Magpies and Wanderers.
Six points clear of Buffaloes in fourth, it’s hard to see the Saints falling a rung on the ladder.
However, with the Saints playing just its second game since December 17, are St Mary’s vulnerable in Round 15?
In their defence, Waratah will have played just two games since the Christmas break when they face off in Round 17.
Predicted finish: Third
DARWIN BUFFALOES
Last month: PINT (win), Nightcliff (win), Wanderers (win), Southern Districts (loss)
The Buffs face a tricky run into finals with only the Eagles match you’d rate as an expected win.
However, with captain Jarrod Stokes back in hot form, and Mitch Robinson and Brad Stokes also enjoying strong seasons, the Buffs are poised to atone for a poor 2021-22 with the clash against Nightcliff in Round 16 the hardest one to pick.
Darwin have only beaten one team within the top five and that was a struggling Tiger outfit in the midst of a five-game losing streak.
Buffs begin their run to finals with a Round 15 date with PINT who they beat by 26 points in Round 7.
Predicted finish: Fourth
NIGHTCLIFF TIGERS
Last month: St Mary’s (loss), Buffaloes (loss), PINT (win), Tiwi Bombers (win).
The Tigers have recovered from an ordinary pre-Christmas season to win the past three in a row, taking their biggest scalp of the season in Districts in Round 14.
As good as Nightcliff was, you’re unlikely to see the Crocs that poor again.
That being said, there’s never been a better time to test your season-best form against another title contender in St Mary’s, who have played once since Round 12, the final fixture for 2022.
Nightcliff will have plenty of motivation to knock off the Saints, with poor kicking for goal (7.18) costing them victory the last time they met in Round 7.
Meanwhile, on current form, you can make a case for Nightcliff downing the Greenants and the Bombers to storm into finals with serious momentum.
But the consistency of Buffs, who have been parked in the top five all year, could give them the edge over Nightcliff who have lacked continuity with results for most of the season.
Predicted finish: Fifth
PALMERSTON MAGPIES
Last month: bye, St Mary’s (loss), Tiwi Bombers (win), Waratah (loss).
A season which promised so much after a big win against Southern Districts at Freds Pass in Round 9 quickly disintegrated, with points lost for fly-in breaches and missing key players like Tristen Waack and Sam Clohesy, not seen rounds 6 and 11 respectively.
Despite a pretty rough run home the Pies could jump a rung with a gettable game against Tiwi while PINT, two points above them, are no guarantee of winning any more games for 2022-23.
Predicted finish: Sixth
PINT
Last month: Buffaloes (loss), Districts (loss), Nightcliff (loss), bye.
For all their great strides in 2022-23, PINT could go from knocking on the top five to finishing as low as seventh, with three tough games to follow.
However, a win in Round 15 against Buffs could seriously kickstart a run to finals for the MPL debutants who perhaps are not playing with the weight of expectations like other clubs.
But Buffs have been in the top bracket for much of the season and beat the Greenants by 26 points in Round 7, Districts are rightfully on top and Nightcliff have found their mojo just before and after Christmas.
If they get there, they will have well and truly earned it.
Predicted finish: Seventh
WANDERERS
Last month: Waratah (loss), Tiwi (win), Buffaloes (loss), St Mary’s (loss)
At first glance the Wanderers’ list would have any side expecting a testing match-up, but it’s not been the year for the Muk Muks.
Despite all their issues, the Eagles’ chances of making the final five were probably still alive until Round 14, but a second loss to PINT was the end of their season.
Key to the Muk Muks’ issues is their lack of goals with the side having scored the least points this season with just 621 as of Round 14.
The run home doesn’t get any easier with three matches against sides currently in the top five, and a win against Tiwi isn’t going to help them climb very far.
Wanderers will now start to cast their eyes on what needs to be improved for the 2023-24 season.
Predicted finish: Eighth
TIWI BOMBERS
Last month: Districts (loss), Wanderers (loss), Palmerston (loss), Nightcliff (loss)
The Bombers will collect their third NTFL wooden spoon in a row come the end of the season, as other sides plan their finals assaults.
There have been highs and lows in season 2022-23 as the side went undefeated against PINT, broke a 922-day winless drought only to later forfeit against Waratah ahead of the Maurice Rioli Cup.
And while they will be after a positive close to their season, they face the toughest finish of all sides.
The Bombers have matches against top side Districts, Wanderers hoping for their first win in 2023, and both Palmerston and Nightcliff looking to bolster their percentage.
Predicted finish: Ninth
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