This Month
‘It’s the cost of living, stupid’: How Dutton squandered his lead
At the halfway mark of the election campaign, the opposition leader is playing catch-up on the cost of living and Donald Trump’s trade war chaos hasn’t helped.
Labor takes half-time lead as Dutton support drops
Labor has attracted a small swing in the past fortnight, putting it in the box seat to form minority government, according to a new Freshwater Strategy poll.
Explore the latest Freshwater Strategy Poll
Who is the preferred prime minister? What is driving people’s votes? Explore our AFR-Freshwater Strategy polling data.
March
PM reckons he’s got the wind at his back, just when it matters
Albanese is subscribing to the same strategy that got him across the line in 2022. Be ahead when it matters.
Labor closing gap on cost of living, leads race to form government
Anthony Albanese has his nose ahead of Peter Dutton in the race to form government on May 3.
Big swing to Libs in Victoria but struggling for traction in WA
Victoria has swung back strongly to the Coalition since the last election. Lesser so has NSW, while Western Australia has barely moved.
Appeal to aspiration to avert a minority government
A hung parliament would just exacerbate the populism, opportunism, and polarisation that are already destabilising the political system.
Dutton recommits to lower taxes, blames poll slump on smear campaign
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has assured his restive backbench he remains committed to tax cuts, but they have to be affordable and non-inflationary.
Dutton coming off the boil as election nears
Peter Dutton’s personal ratings and voter expectations of a Coalition victory have fallen sharply, suggesting Labor attacks on the opposition leader are working.
February
Minority government looms but who’ll lead it, and for how long?
Heaven forbid, but Australians could be forced back to the polls if Dutton and Albanese end up with 75 seats apiece after crossbench negotiations.
Coalition stretches poll lead to 52-48 but green shoots for Labor
The latest The Australian Financial Review/Freshwater Strategy poll reveals a significantly increased chance Peter Dutton can form a minority government.
January
Younger men gravitating towards Dutton
Male voters are more disposed towards Peter Dutton than are their female counterparts, especially among younger demographics.
Four charts reveal surprising views on Aussie businesses
Voters hate Coles and Woolworths? Think again. Amid a debate on the role of business in society, a new poll unearths some unexpected views on business.
Dutton catches Albanese as preferred PM as law and order worries grow
Amid a spate of antisemitic attacks, the latest The Australian Financial Review/Freshwater Strategy poll showed law and order overtaking climate change as a top-three voter issue.
December 2024
Dutton risks losing underdog status
The weight of expectation is shifting behind the opposition leader. Which can be a curse.
Dutton stronger, more decisive than Albanese: poll
Peter Dutton leads Anthony Albanese on 10 of the 12 leadership attributes tested in the latest AFR/Freshwater Strategy poll.
Voters bracing for minority government – and Dutton to lead: poll
The latest poll shows a Labor-led minority is the most likely outcome from the next election. But more voters believe Peter Dutton will be the next prime minister.
Dutton’s nuclear plan a $4trn hit to the economy: Chalmers
Last week’s long-awaited release of the nuclear policy costings has had no immediate impact on the popularity of the energy source.
November 2024
Net zero ambition to go backward under Trump: poll
A clear majority of respondents believe international efforts to stem climate change have been set back by Donald Trump’s restoration to the White House.
Labor’s plight is not unique but the solution remains elusive
As each month passes without noticeable improvement in the cost of living, it’s all starting to appear rather fraught for the government.