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This is why some pollsters missed the Labor landslide

Michael Read

Pollsters who failed to predict Labor’s landslide victory on Saturday say they overcorrected for past survey errors and underestimated how many Labor supporters who voted No in the Voice referendum would stick with the Albanese government.

Labor was leading the Coalition by 54.87 per cent to 45.13 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, according to the Australian Electoral Commission, as at Sunday evening. With only 75 per cent of the vote counted, analysts stressed that it was too early to say anything definitive about the accuracy of opinion polls at the 2025 election.

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Michael Read is the Financial Review's economics correspondent, reporting from the federal press gallery at Parliament House. He was previously an economist at the Reserve Bank of Australia and at UBS. Connect with Michael on Twitter. Email Michael at michael.read@afr.com

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    Original URL: https://www.afr.com/politics/this-is-why-some-pollsters-missed-the-labor-landslide-20250504-p5lwet