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Kenneth Rogoff

Why inflation will be back, sooner than you think

Central banks cannot be as independent as we like to believe. And they would always rather avoid a recession than avoid inflation.

Listening to central bankers, one would think that the recent bout of high inflation was merely an excusable post-pandemic forecasting error made under extreme uncertainty.

But while this narrative now prevails in markets and the financial press, it presumes a level of central bank independence that is simply unrealistic in today’s volatile economic and political environment.

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Project Syndicate

Kenneth Rogoff is a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund and professor of economics and public policy at Harvard University.

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    Original URL: https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/why-inflation-will-be-back-sooner-than-you-think-20240521-p5jfb8