January
Here are Europe’s three big fears in a Trumpian world
If it fails to adapt, the European Commission may end up looking like the Los Angeles fire department – scrambling after the damage has already been done.
Will Trump fire Jerome Powell?
When it comes to the US economy, the spotlight is on whom the president-elect might try to dismiss rather than whom he plans to appoint.
September 2024
Wall Street needs to wake up to this White House race
Financial markets are wrong to think that Congress will restrain Donald Trump or Kamala Harris. Both of them have troubling plans for the economy.
August 2024
Will Trump get the weaker greenback he wishes for to restore manufacturing?
Because there is some truth to the assertion that the US dollar is too strong, whoever the next president is could get lucky with the dollar.
July 2024
The world needs to prepare for a US-China trade war
Democrat and Republican policymakers believe Washington must impose huge restrictions on Chinese technologies, including electric cars and solar panels.
May 2024
Why inflation will be back, sooner than you think
Central banks cannot be as independent as we like to believe. And they would always rather avoid a recession than avoid inflation.
April 2024
Magic debt thinking collides with inflation and higher rates
Since the GFC, economists have suggested that using debt to finance government spending is a free lunch. But the tide has turned in the past two years.
March 2024
Why the dismal state of US politics is fuelling the AI boom
With political gridlock in Washington the norm, the sharemarket is betting that Nvidia is less likely to face anti-monopoly regulation.
February 2024
Davos was upbeat, but don’t count on a soft landing
China’s slowdown, lacklustre Europe and no US fiscal tightening in an election year means the risks to global growth are still on the downside.
January 2024
Every chance that 2024 is going to be rockier than 2023
The worst fears of a year ago did not happen. But the world economy is carrying too many stored-up problems for 2024 to be quiet.
November 2023
Emerging markets have ignored the ‘Buenos Aires consensus’
Serial debt-defaulting countries have stunned economists by thriving though prudent policies advocated by the IMF.
May 2023
US debt ceiling debate is really about power
The idea of both sides that debt is always free as long as it is used the ‘right’ way is stupefyingly naive.
April 2023
TikTok is the sound of the clock ticking on globalisation
Compromise does not seem to be possible between the Biden administration and a social media sensation that has America hooked.
February 2023
Why it is far too soon to be optimistic on the economy
A rebound in China or a shallow recession in Europe do not offset the uncertainty over the war in Ukraine.
January 2023
The coming financial contagion
A sustained wave of monetary tightening could expose unexpected vulnerabilities in the global financial system.
November 2022
Cryptocurrency will survive. But will there be any point to it?
Digital currencies will get over Sam Bankman-Fried. But it may be at the cost of the anonymity that makes them so useful to many of their most devoted users.
China’s diminishing returns under Xi
With the Chinese government even less inclined to adopt market-oriented reforms, a smooth landing from the real estate meltdown looks less likely than ever for China’s faltering economy.
October 2022
Britain is not an emerging market – yet
While talk of an outright UK default is overblown, it is not unreasonable to anticipate a painful reckoning just short of that outcome.
August 2022
The Ukraine war and China’s rise will determine the world chess champ
Ding Liren will receive enormous help from the Chinese tech community ahead of next year’s championship match. His Russian rival may not get similar support.
July 2022
Why energy prices will stay high even if global economy tanks
Energy prices will remain elevated and volatile until a robust carbon price is able to fast-track alternative green investments away from fossil fuels.