Many of those who attended this year’s meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos were struck by the jubilant mood of the chief executives in attendance. It was hard to reconcile the optimism of these business leaders with the short-term and long-term economic uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine.

To be sure, there are grounds for cautious optimism, like China’s 180-degree turn on its draconian zero-COVID strategy. Soon, the country could see a huge wave of “revenge spending,” driven by pent-up demand from consumers who have spent much of the past three years in lockdown and now have the equivalent of trillions of dollars in savings to spend.