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Economy

This Month

The Chanticleer podcast features James Thomson and Anthony Macdonald.

The cost of safe banks | Inside Macquarie conference | Labor’s big opportunity

This week, behind the scenes at an investment conference, the business sector’s election reaction and an answer to the question: are safe banks less dynamic?

Fear, loathing (and hope) as finance’s elite gather in LA

Private equity titans and dealmakers converging at the Milken Institute Global Conference this week were relentlessly optimistic in public, but the tone was different behind the scenes.

Finance Minister Katy Gallagher and Treasurer Jim Chalmers watch the PM speak on Wednesday.

Can Jim Chalmers fix Australia’s most urgent challenge?

The treasurer says getting productivity growing will be the signature challenge of Labor’s second term. Doing so will require a tangle of reforms that demand persistence and political will.

Is America about to nuke its own currency?

Although the dollar’s role as the world’s leading reserve currency plays a part, it is just one of many factors contributing to the US’ persistent trade deficits.

Investors confront continued uncertainty about America’s hitherto unrivalled reputation as a safe, stable and lucrative destination for capital under Trump.

Prudent investors are cautious about Trump’s America

The uncertainty created by Trump has made allocating capital to the US a more difficult proposition. Investors would be wise to calibrate their US positions.

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Jim Chalmers and Anthony Albanese.

Government debt to hit $1 trillion as soon as September

Economists are urging the re-elected Albanese government to prioritise getting the budget in order or else risk losing the nation’s AAA credit rating.

US President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

US-China talks seek to save face, and their economies

Tariff negotiations between the two superpowers this weekend offer the prospect of retreat from a full-on trade war. But will the market’s sense of relief prove premature?

The White House has repeatedly stated a preference for a weaker dollar, which could boost manufacturing exports by making them relatively less expensive.

The real cost of a weak US dollar is coming for everyone

If the United States wants to help manufacturing and export workers and also have a weak dollar, it should think hard about what policies can lift America and the rest of the world together.

Peter Dutton and his team have a lot to answer for after Saturday’s disastrous result.

Liberals were too left-wing on the economy

Peter Dutton’s team defied basic liberal economic principles and was punished. The natural policy for it should be to offer lighter income taxes than Labor.

University of NSW marketing school head Professor Maggie Chuoyan Dong: “It is ideal to have a transparent supply chain, but in reality, very few companies have that transparent supply chain.”

Third-party risks are no longer someone else’s fault

In this hyper-connected world it’s important to remember that ensuring the protection of data along the supply chain is essential.

Bold leadership is now crucial

Readers’ letters on the need for reform after the federal election, how to rebuild the Liberal Party and develop credible leadership.

After slamming the Coalition’s economic policy in a press conference, Jim Chalmers relaxed at The Paddo.

Is Labor ready to get real in its second term?

The first Albanese government was all about “tricks” – a shameless democracy-damaging series of porkies. Can it pick up its game with a commanding majority?

Albanese’s Labor today is the party of big government, public sector unions and universal entitlement programs such as the out-of-control NDIS, Medicare and childcare.

Australian prosperity will keep drifting lower

The source of the nation’s exceptionalism has fallen through the centre ground as neither triumphant Labor nor the devastated Liberals represent aspirational voters.

Treasurer Chalmers and Assistant Minister for Competition, Andrew Leigh have already started discussions on a productivity agenda, which includes more effective regulatory settings.

Government must get productivity right this time

Bold reform comes with a heavy price tag and is harder when economic circumstances also command big spending

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Bessent lays out Trump blueprint as big investors stick with US

The US Treasury secretary and former hedge fund manager speaking at the Milken Institute declared America was still the best place for investor capital.

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The companies that are winners and losers from Labor’s landslide victory

Winners include healthcare diagnostics, vehicle financiers, and developers. Mortgage insurers, fuel suppliers, and automotive firms may face challenges.

Albanese and Chalmers have the change to steer towards reform.

This is Labor’s chance for real reform. Business must make the case

Anthony Albanese and Jim Chalmers have the chance to tackle big-picture reform in a way that was unimaginable a few days ago. Business should lean into that.

The Chanticleer podcast features James Thomson and Anthony Macdonald.

Next PM’s to-do list | Woodside hits go | Minecraft powers Woolies turnaround

This week, what the election means for investors, a telling $27 billion investment, and the latest weapon in the supermarket wars: cheap cardboard toys.

Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor and Shadow Finance Minister Jane Hume .

Budget will get worse before it gets better under Coalition

A surprise new $3.6 billion tax on vaping and a massive $17 billion cut to the public service will not prevent a Coalition government posting bigger budget deficits.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers.

Chalmers didn’t know a key budget number. This is why it matters

Treasurer Jim Chalmers failed to recognise a $47 billion deficit figure in an oversight that economist Saul Eslake says exposes the government for glossing over so-called “off budget” spending.

April

Trump’s tariff war will have unintended consequences.

Meat price rises could be just one (of some) unintended tariff hits to Australia

Australian business leaders are scrambling to understand the second- and third-order impacts of Trump’s trade war. And they might not play out as expected. 

There could be an argument for a big rate cut based on taking pre-emptive action to manage risks from the trade war.

Is there a case for a jumbo-sized interest rate cut next month?

Given the cash rate is now 4.10 per cent, this suggests that the RBA board could deliver a 50 basis point cut in May and still leave policy mildly restrictive.

Bookmakers say the odds of Tony Abbott winning his seat are drifting out.

Voters are still fed up with major parties

Readers’ letters on the teal independents, Peter Dutton’s fears of bias at the ABC and Guardian Australia, defence policy and taxation on superannuation.

Jim Chalmers and Katy Gallagher say the government’s election promises will improve the budget by $1 billion over four years.

Labor’s missing $8b for housing makes a mockery of budget

More than 80 per cent of the $10 billion that the government committed to build 100,000 homes for first buyers was nowhere to be seen in its election costings.

Shoppers at a supermarket.

Inflation result opens door to post-election rate cut

The RBA’s preferred measure of underlying inflation has dipped below 3 per cent for the first time in three years, opening the door to a likely interest rate cut for the second time this year.

Original URL: https://www.afr.com/policy/economy