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Kenneth Rogoff

Britain is not an emerging market – yet

While talk of an outright UK default is overblown, it is not unreasonable to anticipate a painful reckoning just short of that outcome.

Following British Prime Minister Liz Truss’ “mini-budget” – a mishmash of policies ranging from Reaganomics-style tax cuts for corporations and the wealthy to an old-style socialist cap on energy prices – commentators have reacted with increasingly florid hyperbole. Many now wonder whether the United Kingdom is coming to resemble less an advanced economy than a wayward emerging market.

True, financial markets have sent the pound spinning to its lowest level ever (against the US dollar), with no bottom in sight. The pound’s reserve-currency status, the last remaining vestige of Britain’s once-vaunted position at the center of the international monetary system, is being called into question. While talk of an outright UK default is overblown, it is not unreasonable to anticipate a painful reckoning just short of that outcome.

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Project Syndicate

Kenneth Rogoff is a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund and professor of economics and public policy at Harvard University.

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    Original URL: https://www.afr.com/world/europe/britain-is-not-an-emerging-market-yet-20220929-p5bly1