The NT News predicts who will win in Round 16 of the 2022-23 NTFL season
Round 16 of the NTFL has thrown up another thrilling group of matches, with many having a bearing on finals. The NT News has analysed each match and predicted who will win and why.
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The Men’s Premier League top five could very well be settled this weekend.
If Darwin Buffaloes knock off Nightcliff in Round 16, and PINT lose to Southern Districts, it would leave the Buffs in fourth position.
However, if Buffs win and PINT upsets the ladder leaders, it would set up a delicious Tigers v Greenants clash next weekend, with both locked on 28 points apiece.
However, with Nightcliff playing the battling Tiwi Bombers in the final round and the Greenants facing a bye, it looks like season over for Shannon Motlop’s men if they can’t get the chocolates at Norbuilt Oval.
Meanwhile, St Mary’s should get a pre-finals tune up against a flatlining Palmerston at TIO Stadium while Wanderers should get its win for the season against the Tiwi Bombers at Gardens Oval.
Tiwi Bombers vs Wanderers
Gardens Oval - 2pm
Tiwi and Wanderers have little left to play for but pride.
At the time of writing, the Bombers had yet to name their team, but expect them to top up for this encounter in an effort to pinch its second win of 2022-23.
Against Southern Districts in Round 15, they debuted former Western Bulldogs and West Coast forward Josh Carter (formerly Hill) who added some skill to the Bombers’ backline.
Harley Bennell and Sam Darley are also game changing threats across the ground, mixing well with the X-factor players Tiwi are known for, like Dion Munkara and Stanley Tipiloura.
There is also the chance former St Mary’s champion Shannon Rioli will make another appearance for Tiwi, adding further experience and leadership.
If the intention is to top up, then the bottom side will be a genuine threat to Wanderers, who are immediately above them on the table.
The Muk Muks’ shining light this season has been their defence, led by the elite efforts of Mitchell Taylor and Brodie Newman.
On paper, the Eagles have put out decent sides all season, but that’s not where games are won and an inability in front of goal has killed their season to some degree.
Steven Motlop, who has been named, and Beau O’Connell have managed spurts of good form - showing why they’re so highly rated.
Pacey wingman Marcus Totham is also back for just his second match since Round 7, as Wanderers look to grab at least one more win for the year.
It’s a match that very well could go their way, but the Bombers will make them work for it.
Our tip: Wanderers by 12 points.
Southern Districts vs PINT
Norbuilt Oval - 4pm
Needing to win every game and hope other teams stumble, this is the Greenants’ biggest test of the 2022-23 season so far.
And they look to be fielding a settled unit against a Districts side which were ordinary against Nightcliff and then beat up a Tiwi Bombers team that has an eye on the end of the season.
The Crocs were far from at full strength in those two fixtures, though, with heavy hitters Brodie Lake, Matt Shannon, Jack Mentha, Jake McQueen and Jye Bolton missing in Round 15.
PINT, though, are coming off arguably its most impressive win of the year against Darwin Buffaloes.
Alex Harvey and Damian McMahon were particularly influential, with 43 touches and 12 inside 50s between them, constantly driving the leather forward for their team.
The last time these two met in Round 8 the Crocs got the better of the contest by just four points with the Greenants having their chances to win. .
They left an impression, though, with Crocs captain Dean Staunton saying Shannon Motlop’s men were worthy of a finals berth.
PINT absolutely dominated the inside 50s (46-32) but couldn’t convert it into scoreboard pressure, while in the absence of Matt Dennis, Brock Carter and Andrew Jones monstered the ruck (48-17).
Norbuilt Oval has been close to a fortress this season for Districts, though, with wins over Wanderers, Waratah, Nightcliff and St Mary’s; only dropping a Round 9 clash to Palmerston after kicking 4.15, which was later deemed a forfeit.
A win or bust encounter, this is PINT’s chance to show it belongs among the top tier teams in Men’s Premier League.
Our tip: Districts by 18 points.
Nightcliff Tigers vs Darwin Buffaloes
Nightcliff Oval - 6.30pm
A season which showed clear improvement on 2021-22 before Christmas is in danger of falling over if the Buffs fail to show up against the Tigers.
Since a 14-point win over Nightcliff in Round 8 – it’s only victory against a team currently in the top five in 2022-23 - Darwin have gone 2-4 with last round’s loss to PINT a serious wakeup call if it wants to contest finals.
For the Buffs against the Tigers for the second time this season, a big inclusion appears to be Mitch Robinson who has only played one MPL match since the Christmas break.
Also lacking the services of Dom Brew, Robinson was badly missed last round, with PINT enjoying a lot more of the ball and getting the edge in clearances in Round 15.
Darwin will be looking to get more out of its forward line after dominating the forward entries county against PINT (49-37) but allowed PINT five more forward 50 marks.
However, the competition’s most stingiest defence has tightened further in recent rounds, with Nightcliff keeping the opposition to an average score of 46 during their run of four wins.
The Tigers are simply a revitalised team which has dispatched two contenders in Southern Districts and St Mary’s, and welcomes back champion Cam Illet while SANFL goal kicker Sam Overall has been also named.
However, Hamish Hartlett, who had 26 touches and a goal last round, is not listed.
The form team of the competition, it’s becoming nigh on impossible to tip against the Tigers.
Our tip: Nightcliff by 24 points.
St Mary’s vs Palmerston Magpies
TIO Stadium - 7pm
St Mary’s know a win against the Magpies is crucial to keeping their double chance hopes alive come finals time.
The Green Machine have been among the form sides for most of the season, and currently sit in third on the Men’s Premier League ladder.
But a tight loss against Nightcliff in Round 15 showed they can be sucked into an arm wrestle when their forwards, namely Jackson Calder, are restricted by defensive sides.
It’s an issue which Saints have faced all season when sides contain the Chaney medalist, dropping their early season matches to Southern Districts and PINT due to similar issues.
However, Brandyn Grenfell is also a potent option up forward, while Jack Landt returns from a week’s suspension to complement last year’s leading goal scorer in Calder.
Dylan Landt and Nate Paredes have enjoyed another big season in the midfield, with the former’s performances building week after week.
Fly-in star Lucas Jellyman-Turner also returns to the back six, which has been a potent area for Saints all season with Kieran Parnell and Matthew Green among the best.
It’s a stark contrast to Palmerston who since their early season highs have steadily dropped down the table, while losing key players along the way.
Tristan Waack, Sam Clohesy and Baxter Mensch were among the league’s best early in the season, but they haven’t been seen in 2023.
Cam Pedersen was their best against Buffs after the Christmas break, but he and the club’s leading goal kicker Eddie Betts are also missing on this occasion.
While there is still quality with Eric Guthrie and Ashton Hams named, and there’s plenty of young talent, this isn’t yet a proven squad.
Palmerston may show plenty of guts and pride, but this side is a shadow of their early season selves and will instead have their eyes firmly on building for next year.
Our tip: Saints by 46 points
WHAT WE LEARNED FROM NTFL ROUND 15
Another massive round of NTFL footy has come to a close, and each match had an impact on the potential make up of finals.
In the men’s competition Districts, PINT, Nightcliff and Waratah all triumphed, improving their chances of finals footy.
And in the women’s competition St Mary’s, Tiwi Bombers, PINT and Waratah claimed victory.
Districts display depth
Despite missing a number of key players, top of the table Southern Districts showed they had talent to spare against a hapless Tiwi Bombers.
Jake McQueen, Matt Shannon, Roy George, Matt Mazzini, Jye Bolton, Brodie Lake and Jack Mentha were all missing from the side in Round 15, and yet the Crocs didn’t miss a beat, kicking 106 points in less than three quarters.
Sam Dunstan kicked seven goals in a dominant display up forward where his height cast a long shadow over the Bombers’ defence.
Matt Dennis dominated in the ruck, and Luke Smith was everywhere in offence while Frazer Driscoll and Michael Bowden limited their foes to just two goals.
Granted, the match was against Tiwi, a side who have not played since December and for whom putting out a full side was perhaps victory enough.
But this wasn’t a limited side with Sam Darley returning after his prolonged suspension and Josh Carter (formally Hill) making his NTFL debut.
Crocs will take great solace in the fact they can now move into the latter stages of the season, and into finals, knowing they have plenty of consistent performers to return.
A loss to Nightcliff was perhaps the loss they had to have; a wake up call that the competition has evened up in recent weeks, with the Tigers and PINT having strong runs in 2023 so far.
Player Ratings Tiwi vs Districts
3. Sam Dunstan (Districts)
2. Luke Smith (Districts)
1. Matt Dennis (Districts)
PINT’s greatest win of the season
Craving the four points against Darwin Buffaloes in Round 15 to keep their finals hopes alive, PINT shook off a mid-game challenge to eventually win by three straight kicks.
It certainly didn’t come easy, with the Buffs clawing their way back into the contest on the back of Liam Holt-Fitz and Jarrod Stokes in particular.
After a stalemate through much of the third, PINT held its collective nerve and kicked away through the boot of captain Matt Ryan, whose three quick goals were massive in a low scoring affair.
Some might point to PINT’s first victory in Men’s Premier League as its best of the season – a confidence-building 31-point win over St Mary’s in Round 3 - but there was far more on the line at TIO Stadium.
And the Saints were far from the finished product in mid-October and had been trounced by Waratah two weeks prior by 101 points.
PINT appears to have grown in stature before our eyes, and wins over teams like the Buffs only adds further credibility to its finals aspirations.
And if a number of matches had gone its way – a draw to Tiwi, a four-point loss to Southern Districts – PINT would be comfortably nestled within the top five.
With a happy coach and a committed squad, it feels like the Greenants might be playing with a touch more freedom than other contenders, too.
In a competition which has evened out somewhat in recent rounds, PINT’s final two games against Southern Districts and Nightcliff are far from tall orders.
Player Ratings PINT vs Buffaloes
3. Alex Harvey (PINT)
2. Matt Ryan (PINT)
1. Jarrod Stokes (Buffaloes)
Nightcliff in the chase for double chance
What a difference a few weeks make.
Before Christmas, Nightcliff were on the wrong side of a five-game losing streak, couldn’t buy a goal at crucial moments and were sitting outside the top five.
And then they beat Wanderers, and Palmerston, top of the table Southern Districts and most recently St Mary’s in a scrappy TIO Stadium affair, and could be pushing for the double chance.
That’s right, only four points separate the men from Tiger town from last year’s premiers St Mary’s in third, and at this stage you’ll be a fool to count them out from that chase.
The Tigers aren’t out of the danger zone just yet with the two sides directly behind them, Buffaloes and then PINT, still to play, but they have momentum.
Perhaps most impressive in their win against Saints was their fitness at their death, the side dug deep to push through and score two crucial fourth quarter goals, in a game where majors were few and far between.
The Green Machine had their chances against Nightcliff early on, but the Tigers defence, who have conceded the fewest points all season, held them out as best they could.
Ben Vile limited the threat of Jackson Calder, while Ryan Nyhuis and Luke Wines put the pressure on, making moves into their defensive fifty extremely difficult.
There are tough matches to come, but Nightcliff will be eying the top three now and with the likes of Cam Ilett to return, they can only get better.
Nightcliff have morphed from the competition’s dark horse into genuine contender.
Player Ratings Nightcliff vs St Mary’s
3. Ben Vile (Nightcliff)
2. Bailey Edwards (Nightcliff)
1. Matthew Green (St Mary’s)
Wanderers missing the finishing touch
It was an all too familiar tale at Tracy Village in Round 15 with Wanderers yet again failing to kick anything resembling a winning score against Waratah.
This season, the Eagles have suffered from the loss of solid 2021-22 forward line contributors in Darren Shillabeer and Keelan Fejo - limited to just six games between them - while Ed Simpson (38 goals from nine matches in 21-22), has split his time in the ruck.
John and Stanley Tipiloura also returned to the Tiwi Bombers before the season began.
But the road out of 2022-23 has at least one bright spot not far ahead in the distance, with the Eagles due to play the Bombers in Round 16.
However, it might be a far tighter contest than first expected with Steven Motlop reportedly finished for the season.
The former Port Adelaide and Geelong mercurial forward is the only Muk Muk who has hit double digits with goals this season.
He was the difference last time Wanderers and Tiwi met in Round 8, with Motlop’s three, third quarters goals the spark for a dominant second half, finishing with six.
It was also the last time the Eagles kicked more than 64 points in a match, with a scoring average of 47 points per game since that mid-November clash.
The Eagles have also missed Thomas Motlop – who slotted two against the Bombers that day – for chunks of the season, playing just seven MPL matches and has not been sighted at the level since early December.
With the decorated veteran playing Reserves Premier League in Round 15, he would be a handy inclusion for Aaron Motlop.
Player Ratings Wanderers vs Waratah
3. Joel Crocker (Waratah)
2. Brodie Carroll (Waratah)
1. Dylan Collis (Waratah)
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