The NT News predicts who will win in Round 14 of the 2022-23 NTFL season
The run home to NTFL finals will only get hotter this weekend as sides start to plan their run to the top. We’ve analysed each match and predicted who will win in Round 14 and why.
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The run home to NTFL finals will only get hotter this weekend in Round 14 of Men’s Premier League.
And for some teams, it might be their last chance to rally for fifth place with Southern Districts, Waratah, St Mary’s and arguably Darwin Buffaloes assured of finals action.
At TIO Stadium, Wanderers take on PINT, with both sides locked on 16 points and eyeing off fifth place.
Meanwhile, sixth-placed Palmerston will look to revive its season and get their first win since Round 6 against the Buffaloes.
At Nightcliff Oval, the Tigers will chase their third win in a row in what would be their best effort of the season if they can knock off ladder leaders Crocs.
And at Gardens Oval, Waratah and bottom-placed Tiwi Bombers will duke it out for the Maurice Rioli Cup.
Waratah vs Tiwi Bombers
Gardens Oval - 2.30pm
Waratah has a chance to increase their percentage when they meet the Tiwi Bombers at Gardens Oval, but Brenton Toy’s men will want to turn up for the prestigious Maurice Rioli Cup.
The Tahs have all the components of a side ready to sweep not only into the NTFL finals, almost certainly the grand final.
Jayden Magro has been on fire this season and has one hand on the leading goal kicker trophy at the moment, the Dennis Dunn, with 41 majors.
Likewise, Darcy Hope and Tom Banuelos are two others who have provided forward line damage, and yet the Tahs have still managed to add to their firepower.
Peel Thunder and multiple WAFL leading goal kicker Blair Bell comes into the fold for the remainder of the NTFL season and looks set to take Tahs to the next level.
It’s the perfect forward line for a side full of ball winners including Joel Crocker, who gathered a game high 33 possessions against PINT, and defensive ace Dylan Collis.
Tahs will be sure not to let their guard down against a Tiwi unit who will want to make an impression in this historic match.
Tiwi have enjoyed a longer rest than most sides - having had the week off in Round 13 - and come in slightly more refreshed than other sides.
But for a club who has struggled all season and still sit bottom of the table, the lack of recent game time could also spell danger too against a side full of run.
The Bombers will rely on their experienced players such as Shannon Rioli, Harley Bennell and Nick Hooker to keep them in the fight.
Despite one of their best performances of the season being against Waratah, a 39-point loss in Round 6, it might be a bridge too far for them once more.
Our tip: Waratah by 64 points.
Nightcliff Tigers vs Southern Districts
Nightcliff Oval - 4pm
A stellar Southern Districts team looks set to be even more powerful as it storms home to finals.
Already one of the most potent teams in the competition, the man who kicked 35 goals from 14 Men’s Premier League games last year, Leigh Williams, has re-joined the Crocs for the 2022-23 season.
Williams slotted four majors in a comfortable 60-point victory over Palmerston at Cazalys Arena last round and he again looms large in this contest.
Coming off a 78-goal season with Yarrawonga, Williams complemented the old firm of Luke Smith, Ronald Fejo, Matt Shannon and Jake McQueen who boasted six goals and 91 touches between them.
The Crocs also pulled in 13 forward 50 marks to just two, as McQueen, Smith and Williams also did the damage in that regard.
With Claremont’s Jye Bolton equally industrious with 29 touches in his fourth game of MPL, the Crocs might be hitting close to peak form.
Goal kicking is one aspect the Tigers have found difficult at times this season, with Nightcliff last kicking more than 60 points in Round 8.
In round 13, they could only muster six majors from a superior inside 50 count (41-33)
On current form, PINT, who is four points behind the Tigers, appears its main threat at this stage in the season, and will fancy its chances against Wanderers.
Fortunately for Nightcliff, their best player of the season, Brodie Filo, appears to be back this weekend.
While for the ladder leaders, swingman Matt Mazzini and defender Brodie Lake have been named as emergencies, if PlayHQ is anything to go by.
Our tip: Southern Districts by 30 points.
Wanderers vs PINT
TIO Stadium - 5pm
It might be season over for the loser at TIO Stadium in Round 14.
A loss for either side will make it incredibly difficult to snare a finals place, with fifth spot, currently held down by a diminished Nightcliff side, looking the most likely.
That being said, the Tigers face ladder leader Southern Districts and would certainly pull off their best win of the year if it secured the four points.
The Greenants were competitive again last round despite suffering its biggest loss of the year since Round 1, a 27-point fadeout against Waratah when only one point separated the sides at the final break.
However, Tom Schott was consistently excellent for PINT at Gardens Oval, collecting 33 touches, five inside 50s and clearances while Kyle Winter-Irving was imposing at times in the forward line (three goals and forward 50 marks).
The Eagles, however, are coming off a disappointing, low scoring loss to Nightcliff and face a brutal finish to the season with Waratah, Buffaloes and St Mary’s to follow.
The usual suspects of Brodie Newman and Mitchel Taylor were again linchpins in defence against the Tigers, recording a total of 15 rebounds from 50 between them while the former pouched six intercept marks.
But in a similar vein to Nightcliff, the Eagles have struggled to kick winning scores of late with their last big tally being 107 in Round 8 against Tiwi Bombers.
If Aaron Motlop’s men are going to mount any kind of charge for the finals, it has to start now.
Our tip: PINT by 18 points
Darwin Buffaloes vs Palmerston Magpies
Cazalys Arena - 7pm
Darwin Buffaloes will be eager to cement their place in the top five, against a Palmerston outfit who need to turn matters around at Cazalys Arena.
The Buffaloes tested third placed St Mary’s for the majority of their Round 13 encounter, but were unable to seal the deal, going down by 31 points.
But this is a side who have shown all year that despite not quite matching the top three teams, they belong in the finals chase.
Skipper Jarrod Stokes is one player who keeps the whole side ticking along with his explosive bursts out of the midfield and ability to kick long.
However, his midfield partner and former AFL veteran Mitch Robinson has not been listed by the Double Blues on PlayHQ, in a definite downer for the side.
They do have options across the park though with Thomas Clarke and Tanner Coulthard both guns in the midfield while up front Liam Holt-Fitz and Matt Campbell could cause havoc.
The Buffs come up against a Palmerston side who have struggled since their last match-up in Round 6, which was the Magpies’ most recent win.
Since then the Maggies have descended from the top spot to outside the top five and have been unable to reverse their fortunes.
Baxter Mensch, who gathered 31 possessions last round, and Ashton Hams, who managed 29 touches in a defensive role, are two match winners in the squad.
They will be needed if Palmerston is to win once more, and in front of their home crowd might be the perfect opportunity to get the job done.
But for now, the Buffs are in better form.
Our tip: Buffaloes by 14 points.
NTFL ROUND 13: PLAYER RATINGS AND TALKING POINTS
Top End footy returned from the Christmas break with a bang in what proved a thrilling Round 13 full of goals and exciting match-ups.
In the men’s competition Southern Districts, Waratah, Nightcliff and St Mary’s triumphed improving their chances come finals.
And in the women’s competition the Buffettes, Nightcliff, PINT and Palmerston were the victors.
Waratah’s second halfs
Waratah sit comfortably second on the Men’s Premier League ladder but how does their season compare to last at this point?
The Tahs have injected some fresh faces into the mix, with Darcy Hope’s two-goal burst just before half time showing he has become one of the club’s most influential when on song.
The Victorian is equal second for contested grabs in the league, third on the goal kicking table and forward 50 marks, and fifth for score assists.
Moreover, the likes of Scott Carlin (first for uncontested possessions, second for disposals, third for contested touches for the club) has also been damaging with the leather in hand.
Despite dropping a few early season games, losing twice to ladder leaders Southern Districts would be the biggest disappointment for Waratah this season.
And while Tahs turned a one-point, three quarter time deficit into a 27-point win over PINT at Gardens Oval, the stats show this is an area the home side has fallen away in to a degree in 2022-23.
It was perhaps reflected last time the two met in Round 9, where the Greenants turned a 39-point half-time buffer into a 13-point margin by the final siren, as the Tahs held on in the wet.
All up, the Tahs have lost five second halves, and final terms, this season until Round 13.
In 2021-22, Waratah lost just two second halves and final terms, while winning 10 consecutive of the former, and eight of the latter in a row, to Round 15.
That run was broken by St Mary’s in a 68-point hammering.
Which makes Round 17 this season, where last year’s grand finalists will meet again, all the more intriguing.
Waratah vs PINT Player Ratings
3. Dylan Collis (Waratah)
2. Adam Gulden (Waratah)
1. Thomas Schott (PINT)
Nightcliff need forward options
Nightcliff are back among the finals positions having won two matches in a row, and despite confidence growing the side have a long road ahead of them.
Despite their 5-6 record the Tigers are arguably the best defensive side in the league only conceding 591 points across 11 matches, almost 100 points fewer than the next best side.
However, with the exception of their Round 4 match against the Tiwi Bombers, Nightcliff have been unable to truly dominate any encounter and take advantage of their success down back.
That has come down to inconsistencies in their forwards with consistent goal kickers lacking despite plenty of strengths in other areas.
In fact, Nightcliff’s best goal kicker this season is John Butcher with 11 goals, but he has played just three games and scored seven of his majors in Round 5.
Former Western Bulldog Andrew Hooper is emerging as a key forward option having scored five goals from the three matches he has played.
But they need options if they’re too succeed and push on not only for a finals spot, but a potential premiership tilt.
Tigers have two incredibly difficult matches ahead of them against Southern Districts and St Mary’s which could very well be the test of their premiership chances.
Nightcliff vs Wanderers Player Ratings
3. Cam Ilett (Nightcliff)
2. Beau O’Connell (Wanderers)
1. Ryan Nyhuis (Nightcliff)
Saints have plenty of scoring threats
In contrast, St Mary’s have plenty of goal scorers across their pack, and those options could go a long way in their tilt for back to back flags.
Jack Landt made his return to the Green Machine after almost two years away and slotted in perfectly booting three goals to break the match open against Buffaloes.
It was a perfect addition to the already forward strong team which has last year’s leading goal kicker Jackson Calder and fellow tall Brandyn Grenfell.
Small forwards Beau Tedcastle, Nick Yarran and Joseph Salmon are all good for a goal or two each game, while Dylan Landt and Nate Paredes can burst out of the midfield any time for a major.
They also had Nigel Lockyer Jr in their side against Buffaloes, and while he was unable to get on the scoreboard he will sure become an option once he turns out consistent appearances.
Those options are what Saints were in sore need of early in the season when Calder was often isolated as the only kicking option they had at their disposal.
But the side has most of its players back now and will prove an issue for any defensive unit they find themselves against, proven by their standing as the side with the most points this season with 1015.
However, Saints have yet to really stand out against either Waratah or Districts, the top two who have the midfield capable of limiting Saints’ opportunities.
And with another two week break ahead of them they have a bit of wait until they can bounce back into the action as a full unit again.
St Mary’s vs Buffaloes Player Ratings
3. Kieran Parnell (Saints)
2. Dylan Landt (Saints)
1. Hassan Ahmat-Watkins (Buffaloes)
Palmerston starting to run out of chances
Not so long ago it looked as if the Magpies would finally end their finals drought, and yet they now sit outside of the finals berths with an uphill battle ahead of them.
Make no mistake they weren’t favourites to beat top side Southern Districts in Round 13, despite their home ground advantage and the return of Eddie Betts and Travis Varcoe.
But the way in which they were dominated and the margin of their defeat (17.13 (115) to 8.7 (55)), in a season where percentage could matter will have disappointed the Magpies.
Palmerston have not won since their Round 6 win against Darwin Buffaloes, at which stage they were top of the table with only one loss to their name.
They did technically beat Crocs in Round 8, but were handed a forfeit for breaching the fly-in rule, and it has been downhill since then with five defeats in a row.
Besides ruckman Tristen Waack, who is pursuing chances down south, they’ve still got the core of the squad who enjoyed early season success.
But with five rounds to go, one of which Palmerston have the bye and two matches in which they will face top three sides chances to jump back into finals are starting to dry up.
It will take a momentum shift for the side to bounce back, but perhaps in their favour they’re not alone in that boat with Nightcliff, PINT and Wanderers all close in points to the Magpies.
Palmerston vs Districts Player Ratings
3. Jake McQueen (Districts)
2. Matthew Dennis (Districts)
1. Jack Sexton (Districts)
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