Why this fundie thinks a soft landing might just be achievable
With fiscal stimulation and monetary authorities limiting the negative consequences of quantitative tightening, any downturn in the US and Australia is more likely to be mild rather than deep.
Reviewing the policies of central banks across the world remains crucial in understanding the trajectory of key investment markets – both bonds and equities.
A cursory look at these policies suggests there are two camps of central bankers undertaking two starkly different approaches. The aggressive camp includes the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the passive camp includes the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan. The former are aggressively lifting cash rates, trying desperately to get “in front of the curve”, while the latter are only reluctantly moving rates or seemingly doing nothing at all.
