In the final column of last year, we anticipated the “coming of a dangerous decade”, fraught with geopolitical tensions, among a number of other existential challenges. In response, the former Commanding Officer of the Special Air Service Regiment, Ben Pronk, wrote that “it wouldn’t take anything more than a Franz Ferdinand-style miscalculation to kick [the next global war off]”.

Pronk, who is now chief executive of Mettle Global, a crisis consulting firm, penned these words 24 hours before President Donald Trump liquidated the second most senior member of Iran’s government, Qassem Soleimani, triggering a potentially catastrophic chain of events.