The NT News predicts who will win in Finals Week 3 of the 2022-23 NTFL season
We’re into the prelim finals and that means it’s now or never for the remaining men’s and women’s sides. We’ve analysed each NTFL match and predicted who will win and why.
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We’re into the NTFL prelim finals and that means it’s now or never for the remaining sides in the men’s and women’s competitions.
First up we have what promises to be a thrilling encounter between minor premiers PINT and a very strong St Mary’s side in the women’s premier league from 4.30pm.
Then from 6.30pm another minor premier, Southern Districts, will be on the hunt for a finals win against the reigning premiers St Mary’s in the men’s compeition.
PINT vs St Mary’s women
It’s one win a piece for the PINT and St Mary’s women in the 2022-23 premier league, but previous history means very little in a prelim final.
In Round 3 it was the Queenants who absolutely blitzed this encounter, winning by 107 points.
But that was a loss which snapped the Saints women out of their early season funk and they went on a tear from there, winning 12 of their next 13 matches.
That run of matches involved a 25-point win over PINT, the minor premiers only loss of the season, proving the Green Machine could mix it with anyone with their full team.
And then against reigning premiers Darwin Buffettes in the semi-final, Saints once again pulled off a victory against the odds, coming from behind to win without AFLW star Danielle Ponter.
Ponter’s work across the ground, and particularly in the forward 50, is undoubtedly crucial to this Saints side, but despite losing her in the opening minute of play Saints held on.
Captain Emily Forshaw, club best and fairest winner Billie Byers and goal kicking sensation Kaitlyn Armstrong were all instrumental in the win, and have been all season.
Add in Jemma Iacono and Katherine Dann and it’s easy to see why Saints have been firing since the early season blip.
But knock out footy is different and after their loss against Waratah last week, the Queenants won’t be giving anything away easily.
Their main issue going into the match was lack of game time and match fitness after two weeks out of action, they won’t have those issues this time around.
Reni Hicks and Anna Traill are also back in the squad after a week’s absence, and both have been instrumental over the season.
The 2020-21 Gwynne medallist Jasmyn Hewett will be a force in the ruck once again, while dual forward stars Amy Chittick and Steph Lawrence will also be a handful when the ball comes their way.
Both these sides know there’s no tomorrow and that makes them equally dangerous, but after being the benchmark side all season it will be hard to look past PINT.
But after last week Saints will be confident they can upset the odds for the second time this season and climb into the grand final.
Our tip – PINT by six points.
Southern Districts vs St Mary’s men
It’s the reigning premiers against the minor premiers when St Mary’s take on Southern Districts in the prelim final.
The Crocs were humbled in their first finals outing, taking a beating from an in-form and well-gelled Waratah unit in the semi-finals.
And it wasn’t just the loss that will have had the Districts faithful concerned with more than one star player copping an injury throughout the match.
Districts will have been hanging out for Matt Dennis’ condition the most, hoping the premier ruckman will be sharp enough to dominate the ruck once again.
There are, however, some positives for Districts heading into the weekend with captain Dean Staunton set to return to the fold after a match ban.
Former WAFL Claremont star Jye Bolton has also been named in the side, after a late withdrawal ahead of the semi-final, and he is sure to be a weapon for the outfit.
As for Saints they will be wanting a continuation of their impressive outing against Nightcliff, and less of what they experienced against Waratah the week before.
While Dylan Landt and Nate Paredes will be the pivotal duo in the midfield racking up the possessions, it’s what the Green Machine have going on further back which will be most important.
Kieran Parnell and Matthew Green have been two of the best defenders of the 2022-23 NTFL season, and both have carried their fine form into the finals series.
Parnell has been perhaps the best tagger in the league in recent times, limiting the impact of danger men Jayden Magro from Waratah and Brodie Filo from Nightcliff in two weeks of finals.
Up forward it will mainly come down to Jackson Calder, he was on fire against Districts last time these sides faced off and if not for a missed kick would have been the victory clincher.
But Saints can’t leave him isolated up front, as the Districts defenders namely Michael Bowden and Frazer Driscoll will take him out of the match.
Nick Yarran and Jack Landt need to come in and lend a hand in the goal kicking department and force their opponents to divide their focus.
This will undoubtedly be a bruising encounter for both sides, but despite finishing top of the table Districts are the unproven entity in finals.
As such the scales will be tipping in Saints direction.
Our tip – Saints by 18 points.
WHAT WE LEARNED FROM FINALS WEEK 2
It was a weekend of jubilation for St Mary’s and Waratah with the clubs winning both their matches in the women’s and men’s competitions.
St Mary’s kept their hopes of a premiership defence alive beating Nightcliff, while Waratah raced into the NTFL grand final with a big win over Southern Districts.
Meanwhile, in the women’s comp Saints fended off reigning premiers Darwin Buffettes and Waratah went straight into the big dance with an upset victory against PINT.
Waratah much more composed than last year
Waratah are one step closer to winning their first premiership in 23 years, but they know more than anyone the job isn’t done until the final siren sounds.
For the red and whites this has been a season of parallels to last.
Once again they’ve finished in the top three, they’ve earned straight entry into the grand final after beating the other top sides and again they wait a week to see what’s to come.
But in many respects this is a better side than the one that reached the grand final this time last year, and that has come down to mentality.
If Waratah are to win in two weeks’ time then the lessons from Round 17’s one-point loss to St Mary’s may be the most important from the season.
On that occasion Tahs breezed to an early lead only to let a lack of discipline leak into their game, and they lost in the most agonising way.
In finals we’ve seen a much more composed Waratah unit who have kept its head and come away with the wins against both St Mary’s and Districts.
Key ins have also played a role with Darcy Hope providing the tall forward option they’ve missed in recent years.
Arnold Kirby has come into his own in the ruck and Tom Banuelos adds more and more every week, while Abe Ankers and Will Collis have been able to commit to finals.
This all adds up to compliment the main stayers such as Brodie Carroll, Dylan Collis, Jayden Magro and Robbie Turnbull who have been consistent all year.
Waratah are on track to break the longest drought in the league, but they need to keep their heads to get there.
Player Ratings Waratah vs Southern Districts
3. Arnold Kirby (Waratah)
2. Tom Cree (Waratah)
1. Robbie Turnbull (Waratah)
Districts suffer from disjointed run in
A slow opening half from Southern Districts gave away their disjointed run of matches over the past month.
The Crocs had a bye in Round 17, handily beat Buffaloes a week later, and then missed the first week of finals because they finished on top.
But one game in three weeks wasn’t quite the preparation Districts were looking for against a battle-hardened Waratah who have played each week since Round 17.
Tahs overran the minor in the first half and didn’t look back as they charged into the grand final.
It was the first time this season that Districts had lost to Waratah.
Looking ahead, Districts’ biggest concern against St Mary’s will be the fitness of a number of key players.
Jake McQueen seemed to play most of the match against Waratah with just one working arm, while Jack Sexton took a heavy knock late in the piece.
There were also concerns for defender Frazer Driscoll, ruck Matt Dennis and former AFL player Cam Ellis-Yolmen.
Coach Shannon Rusca will be hoping the majority of the above make a return to the side as soon as possible ahead of their upcoming prelim-final against Saints.
However, it isn’t all doom and gloom for Crocs heading into next week with captain Dean Staunton returning from his penalty while Jye Bolton and Kaine Stevens could also make an appearance.
Minor premiers struggle in women’s comp as well
The PINT women looked a touch underdone in their first finals outing of the year, losing to a strong Waratah side.
PINT, much like the Districts men, had a disjointed schedule heading into finals with the Round 18 bye followed by the skip week for finishing top of the table.
It meant that despite their best efforts in training, including an intense practice match against Port Melbourne, they did not
Add on the fact that standout performers Reni Hicks and Anna Traill were missing and the Queenants were down on their best.
None of this takes away from the way in which Waratah took the game on, grinding out a win against the odds.
Steph O’Brien stood out again cementing her place as the player of the finals so far, popping up everywhere from the ruck to the forward line.
Skipper Kierra Zerafa was massive turning defence into offence while defenders such as Shelby Koh kept the Queenants at bay.
Prior to Waratah’s matches against both Saints and PINT the opposition would have been the favoured side, however Tahs have proved all naysayers wrong.
Now they’re in the grand final, with their opposition to come from what promises to be a thrilling encounter between St Mary’s and PINT.
Player Ratings PINT vs Waratah women
3. Steph O’Brien (Waratah)
2. Kierra Zerafa (Waratah)
1. Shelby Koh (Waratah)
Saints’ women battle on without Ponter
St Mary’s may have won the day against reigning premiers Darwin Buffettes, but an injury blow to star Danielle Ponter will have the side reeling.
Not even five minutes into the opening quarter Ponter was on the floor, and the worst was feared when she was taken to hospital instead of returning to the field.
It’s something Saints will have to grapple with as they look ahead at two tough matches without their star AFLW player.
It was a come-from-behind victory in trying conditions against the reigning premiers, but one that proved even down one of their best and a rotation the Green Machine can get the job done.
Emily Forshaw, Billie Byers and Katherine Dann were among the best performers while Kaitlyn Armstrong got the job done with another collection of goals.
But with a frustrated PINT side up next Saints know they have a task and a half ahead of them to come out on top.
However, the Green Machine will take some confidence into this match knowing they’re the only side who beat the Queenants during the regular season.
Player Ratings St Mary’s vs Darwin Buffettes women
3. Emily Forshaw (Saints)
2. Katherine Dann (Saints)
1. Michelle Friel (Saints)
Saints need to use their forward options
St Mary’s campaign for back-to-back premierships lives on after they broke Nightcliff’s eight-game winning streak.
Saint’s superstar Dylan Landt delivered yet another best-on-ground display collecting possession right across the ground and finishing with five goals.
The league’s leading goal scorer Jackson Calder also notched five goals to complete a stellar forward line performance from the pair.
It was a match and win that the Saints more than needed after what would felt a like disappointing loss to Waratah the week before.
But if Saints are to get over their next hurdle of Southern Districts and then Waratah the week after there’s two things they need to do.
First and foremost they need to hit the ground running, they matched Nightcliff in the first quarter but chasing games has become a theme for the Green Machine of late.
Then they need to make sure to alternate their forward line.
Calder led the goal scoring for a reason, but if he’s left as the only kicker then opposition defence will strangle him out of the game.
As soon as Landt moved up forward the Green Machine had more freedom and started to score for fun.
Jack Landt, Nick Yarran and Brandyn Grenfell, who is doing a solid job in the ruck, can all score themselves and Saints should use those weapons to rack up scores.
Most disappointing for Tigers is how they didn’t much use out of their dual Nichols medal star Brodie Filo who was effectively taken out of the equation by Kieran Parnell.
It took the go forward out of Nightcliff’s game and allowed Saints to dominate the midfield battle through skipper Nate Paredes.
Player Ratings St Mary’s vs Nightcliff Tigers
3. Dylan Landt (Saints)
2. Kieran Parenll (Saints)
1. Nate Paredes (Saints
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