The NT News predicts who will win in Finals Week 2 of the 2022-23 NTFL season
Finals footy will heat up once again this week as the men’s and women’s premier league outfits reach the semi-finals. We’ve analysed each NTFL match and predicted who will win and why.
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Finals footy is heating up once again this week as the men’s and women’s premier league outfits reach the semi-finals.
The men’s matches feature a blockbuster minor semi-final between rivals Nightcliff and St Mary’s, while in the major semi Districts will take on a Waratah side with momentum.
Over in the women’s competition minor premiers PINT take on Waratah, and Saints are caught in a do-or-die clash against the Darwin Buffettes.
St Mary’s vs Darwin Buffettes
There’s no second chances when reigning premiers Darwin Buffettes go head to head with St Mary’s in the knock-out semi-final.
The Double Blues come into this encounter with some finals momentum having beaten last season’s grand finalists Nightcliff in the elimination battle.
They will also take some confidence in the fact they handily beat St Mary’s last time these sides went head to head.
However, one of their best players on that day, Dom Carbone, is unlikely to return, while Tayla Hart-Aluni, who will return, has not played since.
Ebony Miller and Freda Wosomo were standouts for the Buffs in the elimination final dominating possessions, and will be raring to go once again.
While last year’s Gwynne Medalist Molly Althouse and joint Buffaloes’ best and fairest winner Crystal Browne have enjoyed consistent form all year.
Meanwhile, the Saints women are ruing their loss to Waratah in their rain-affected qualifying final, and now, like the Buffettes, face elimination if they don’t get the win.
Leading into the encounter the Green Machine had won 12 of their previous 13 matches, only dropping the aforementioned game to the Double Blues.
However, the qualifying loss was a bit of a dampener for the young side and now with the stakes heightened this is their chance to prove they belong in the premiership hunt.
They will be hoping for drier conditions this time around so they can get the most out of goal kicking sensation Kaitlyn Armstrong.
Saints will also look to AFLW star Danielle Ponter for another big game, while Jemma Iacono and Billie Byers can be expected to be in the action all match long.
If they can all fire, as they have in their best matches, then it could become a difficult match for Buffs.
Our tip: Saints by eight points
PINT vs Waratah
The PINT women have proved an uphill battle for all sides this season, but Waratah will be hoping their major semi-final meeting will be different.
The Queenants have seen off all-comers this season, winning all but one of their matches.
Even against Waratah they stormed to comfortable wins, but finals is a different ball game.
PINT will be without two of their most-consistent performers in Reni Hicks and Anna Traill, but do have a host of stars still in the side.
2020-21 Gwynne Medalist Jasmyn Hewett will prove a tough challenge to get the better of in the ruck.
While captain Cassie Henderson and Sarah Ingram will be busy contributors around the ball all day long, in an attempt to feed forwards Steph Lawrence and Amy Chittick as much as they can.
Waratah played one of their best games of the season in beating St Mary’s in a wet qualifying final.
Despite being a much-changed side from their glory days, they are always in the hunt for the women’s premiership.
Steph O’Brien in the ruck was one of the standouts last time out, and now has the more difficult challenge of taking on Hewett in the ruck.
Waratah will also look to their x-factor players, such as Aggie Singh up forward, to create some momentum when the going gets tough.
But most important will be their defence, where Jordan Mifsud and Lauren Pluker have stood out.
Tahs’ biggest advantage comes in game time and match fitness, as the PINT women have been out of action for the past two weeks.
But at this stage it’s just so hard to look past the almost unbeaten Queenants.
Our tip: PINT by 12 points.
St Mary’s vs Nightcliff Tigers
Another year and another knock-out final featuring St Mary’s and Nightcliff, but who will come out on top this time around?
Nightcliff won both the 2019-20 and 2020-21 grand finals against St Mary’s to claim the premiership.
Then Saints struck back in the 2021-22 preliminary final knocking the Tigers out on the way to winning a premiership of their own.
Now they meet in the knock-out semi-final, and it’s truly anyone’s game with Saints losing in the qualifying final, while Nightcliff are on an eight game winning streak.
Saints were put in the same position last year, and have a list of talented players once again to help see them through.
Dylan Landt and Nate Paredes have been two of the most dominant midfielders in the comp, and their combination through the middle will be crucial.
Brandyn Grenfell has also proved his importance week after week whether it’s aiding Jackson Calder in front of goal, or securing the ball in the ruck.
But most impressive about this Saints side is their defence with Kieran Parnell and Matthew Green important contributors each and every week.
Nightcliff are also a side who know a thing or two about defending, conceding the fewest points during the home and away season.
Skipper Ryan Nyhuis has been a force down back, while Nathan Brown, Simon Deery and Ben Vile, who played a tagging role on Calder last time out, have also had massive seasons.
Former Port Adelaide player Hamish Hartlett and NTFL great Cam Ilett come back into the Tigers outfit and will both be itching to play a role.
Dual Nichols Medalist Brodie Filo is another who’s expected to fire, as he usually does, and the bigger the role he plays the more likely Nightcliff are of making it nine wins in a row.
As always this should be tough and tight encounter and will come down to the big game players.
Our tip: Saints by five
Southern Districts vs Waratah
Minor premiers Southern Districts get their shot at some finals footy when they take on a Waratah side who last week showed they mean business.
Districts will be down their captain Dean Staunton, who was suspended for striking in the Crocs’ Round 18 match against
It has been a fairly disrupted preparation for Districts who have only played one match in three weeks.
However, this is a talented side who finished on top for a reason with star power all over the place from Michael Bowden and Frazer Driscoll down back to Sam Dunstan up front.
Superstar ruck Matt Dennis has been massive in his first year with the side based at Fred’s Pass, and was once again the premier player in his position.
And with Luke Smith, Ronald Fejo, Jake McQueen and Jack Sexton all getting clean ball off the big man it’s no wonder why the Crocs finished the year on top.
For their part Waratah are coming off a dominant win against reigning premiers St Mary’s.
However, they have yet to beat Districts in the 2022-23 NTFL season, losing both their previous encounters by four goals.
That’s not to say the Tahs are a side lacking firepower in front of goal with Jayden Magro and Darcy Hope both in the top three goal scorers for the season.
The likes of Will Collis and captain Brodie Carroll are also no slackers in front of goal, while the explosive Tom Cree makes his return.
The Waratah back six are as solid as any in the comp marshalled by vice-captain Dylan Collis.
Arnold Kirby does have a challenge ahead of him up against Dennis, but the ruckman is a versatile player who always shows up where he’s needed for the Warriors.
Districts have the freshness, but Waratah have the momentum and this will be a closer match than recent history would suggest.
Our tip: Waratah by 10 points.
ANALYSIS AND BEST PLAYER RATINGS FROM NTFL FINALS WEEK 1
It was a weekend of heartbreak for St Mary’s Football Club in week one of Men’s and Women’s Premier League finals.
The Saints were never in the hunt against Waratah in the men’s qualifying final, going down by 37 points, while the lady Saints’ golden home and away run took a hit, also going down to Tahs by 11 points.
Meanwhile, Nightcliff’s winning run extended to eight after withstanding a late Buffs charge to win by two points, while reigning premiers Buffettes had the answers against the Tigals, getting home by seven points.
Women’s comp in the air
All the talk has been about St Mary’s’ eight-game winning run and PINT’s apparent invincible standing in Women’s Premier League.
But what about the reigning title-holders, the Darwin Buffettes?
The Buffs disposed of last season’s grand finalists Nightcliff at TIO Stadium by seven points in the elimination final and will now square off against the Saints in a semi.
Coming into last weekend after 114 and 78-point smashings of Southern Districts and Wanderers respectively, the Buffettes were on a 7-1 run since a loss to the Saints in Round 9.
The last time they met, Buffettes won by five goals, even if the Saints were without the competition’s leading goal kicker in Kaitlyn Armstrong (52 majors from just 11 games).
Meanwhile, St Mary’s were brought down to earth by Waratah in the qualifying final, after winning 12 of its last 13 games.
Their defence could not quell the impact of Aggie Singh, who has slotted nine goals from four games since her return to Women’s Premier League in late January.
However, the Saints have made a habit of winning games on the bounce and stringing a further three together to claim the premiership will not be as daunting as it sounds.
And St Mary’s are the only team to get the better of the Queenants this season.
There could be a surprise or two left in the WPL finals series.
Darwin Buffettes vs Nightcliff Tigers Player Ratings
3. Ebony Miller (Buffettes)
2. Freda Wosomo (Buffettes)
1. Sophie Hatzismalis (Nightcliff)
Waratah weather wet
Saints may have come in as favourites on the back of an impressive winning run, but with the conditions playing their part, it was the Waratah women who came out on top.
In perhaps the wettest match of the day, the Women’s Premier League qualifying final proved that you never know what to expect from Top End footy.
The rain-soaked TIO Stadium provided little in the way of bounce, with the ball practically sitting still as it hit the ground on more than one occasion.
But Waratah stuck to their guns and found a way to make the conditions work in their favour as they took the lead.
Their defence, particularly Jordan Mifsud, enjoyed a big day out disrupting Saints’ attacking plays wherever and whenever they could.
Meanwhile, Lauren Pluker played a massive role in limiting the impact of Adelaide Crow Danielle Ponter through the crucial periods of the match.
Most impressive though was the work of Jenna Singh kicking three goals, several on the run, as the rain came bucketing down.
The forward was one of the standouts early in her club’s 2022-23 campaign (18 goals from her first four matches), before missing nine weeks during the season.
Now back in the fold, Singh added the X-factor her club needed, kicking true in the rain and proving an all-round menace to the Green Machine’s backline.
Waratah’s ability to get the win in difficult conditions will put them in good stead for their upcoming matches.
So with one final down and more match fitness compared to PINT - having missed the past two weeks - they will be more than ready for their date with the Queenants.
Waratah vs St Mary’s Player Ratings
3. Jenna Singh (Waratah)
2. Jordan Mifsud (Waratah)
1. Stephanie O’Brien (Waratah)
Buffaloes honourable defeat
It took until the final game of Darwin Buffaloes’ season to provide arguably their proudest performance.
Going into the elimination final without midfield king Jarrod Stokes, the Double Blues were not given much chance at TIO Stadium against Nightcliff on a seven-game winning run.
Stokes, the club’s second most prolific goal kicker in 2022-23 with 16 majors, was close to the competition’s most irreplaceable, in terms of his worth to his team’s overall chances.
However, the Buffs started the stronger unit and seemed more suited to the wet conditions, with the likes of fleet footed Tom Baulch and Liam Holt-Fitz providing Darwin some spark.
And when goals to Kokwam Niki and Hassan Ahmat-Watkins gave their team a one-point lead early in the fourth quarter, it looked like Darwin had all the momentum.
But just as it has done all season, Nightcliff’s defence stood tall and cleared multiple entries as the Tigers snuck away with a two-point victory.
While the Buffs improved on last season where they finished sixth, and scored an additional three wins in 22-23, they managed just one victory against a finals team, Nightcliff by 14 points, who were amid a mid-season crisis at the time.
Missing Cade Abala and ruckman Ben Archard, who lead the competition’s hit outs by a whopping 249 last season, (the club was dead last for total tap outs in 22-23) when it came to the crunch, the Buffs simply couldn’t mix it with the best.
It had an average losing margin of 41 points against Waratah, St Mary’s and Southern Districts.
A Round 4 match against Crocs, where the Buffs were leading by 26 points until the game was called off due to an injury to Nick Weightman, was perhaps prophetic.
It also had the leakiest defence of all top five teams, conceding 1194 points, followed by St Mary’s (972).
Darwin would have loved more games out of Tom Baulch (seven home and away matches), who was particularly effective in the first half of the elimination final, Daniel Stafford (six games, 15 goals) and former Nichols medallist Dom Brew (four matches).
However, William Robinson was a good recruit down back and was amongst the team’s best against the Tigers, while Rising Star nomination Sterling Mitchell was also a bright spot for Buffs.
Darwin Buffaloes vs Nightcliff Tigers Player Ratings
3. Bailey Edwards (Nightcliff)
2. Jonathon Peris (Nightcliff)
1. Brodie Filo (Nightcliff)
Saints slow starts
Saints’ habit for starting matches slowly came to bite them in the qualifying final when a disciplined Waratah stood their ground.
Since Round 12, there have only been two occasions where St Mary’s have led at the first quarter break, one being the Round 18 match against Wanderers where they conceded the first three goals.
It’s a complete reversal compared to the same run of matches last season where the reigning premiers led at the first break in all but two matches.
In those two contests, both against Waratah and including the grand final, the Green Machine recovered strongly to upset the red and whites.
This season, however, they have conceded early points against PINT (9-21 at the first break), Buffaloes (8-21) and Nightcliff (18-21).
Saints faltered early against the Tahs in Round 17, trailing 18-39 at quarter time.
However, on that occasion it was Tahs’ ill-discipline and niggle that allowed the Saints to get back into the game.
Again in the qualifying final, Waratah were up at quarter time (29-2), but this time Tahs tightened their defence and kept their composure to win 13.8 (86) to 7.7 (49).
Arnold Kirby played his role in the ruck, Brodie Carroll and Tom Banuelos were everywhere around the ground and usual standouts Darcy Hope and Jayden Magro kept the points coming.
For Saints, it means they now go into a do-or-die encounter against Nightcliff, and Anthony Vallejo’s team, full of seasoned performers as they may be, need to start their games better.
If they don’t, their night against the in-form Tigers could become a very difficult one.
Waratah vs St Mary’s Player Ratings
3. Brodie Carroll (Waratah)
2. Tom Banuelos (Waratah)
1. Jack O’Sullivan (Waratah)
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