The NT News predicts who will win in Finals Week 1 of the 2022-23 NTFL season
Just four clubs will be represented in what promises to be a thrilling opening week of finals for the senior men and women. We’ve analysed each match and predicted who will win and why.
Local AFL
Don't miss out on the headlines from Local AFL. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Finals footy is back at TIO Stadium, but in a curious twist, just four clubs are involved across both men’s and women’s fixtures.
Nightcliff will take on Darwin Buffaloes in the elimination final, and Waratah faces St Mary’s in the qualifying decider, in both Men’s and Women’s Premier League.
It will be a particularly emotional day at the Tigers v Buffs contests, with the late Kaine Riley, who played at both clubs, farewelled on Friday at St Mary’s Cathedral.
Meanwhile, Waratah’s men will be out to seek revenge for a one-point Round 17 loss while their women will be looking to put the clamps on their rivals who have won 12 of the past 13 matches.
Darwin Buffettes vs Nightcliff Tigers
TIO Stadium - 12.15pm
Both sides will go into this match with some confidence, with the ledger split 1-1 over the Women’s Premier League season.
The Double Blues knocked off Nightcliff by 50 points in Round 16 following a 25-point loss in Round 8, a result cruelled by Buffs’ poor kicking for goal (1.9).
However, Mel Taylor’s team enter the elimination final at TIO Stadium with serious momentum, a 114-point smashing of Southern Districts it’s most recent encounter amid a 7-1 run since late November.
That includes the scalps of top three teams Waratah and St Mary’s.
Meanwhile, the Tigals were utterly pasted by ladder leaders PINT by 98 points just two weeks ago.
At least Nightcliff will have the added motivation of losing last season’s decider to the Buffettes, who have lost a bit of talent since that day.
With Dom Carbone joining Hawthorn, premiership winners Jemma Iacono and Tikesa Docherty-Cole defected to St Mary’s.
But inspirational captain Kylie Duggan, reigning Gwynne medallist Molly Althouse and Machaelia Roberts remain in the mix.
That being said, the Buffettes will need to find match ups for a potent Tigers forward line, with Cassie McWilliam and Mickayla Ward combining for 47 majors.
Our tip: Buffettes by 12 points.
St Mary’s vs Waratah
TIO Stadium - 2.15pm
The St Mary’s women have been absolutely dominant in recent history, but the competition’s most successful club, Waratah, stand in their way in the qualifying final.
The Green Machine has won 12 from their past 13 games, only dropping a match in the post-Christmas period to reigning premiers Darwin Buffettes.
It’s a stark turnaround to where they were at the outset of the season where they dropped their first three matches, including one against Waratah.
AFLW star Danielle Ponter is one player who is no stranger to finals success, and will be drawing on all her experience to help her side through.
Goal kicking sensation Kaitlyn Armstrong will also be focal point, while Jemma Iacono and Billie Byers have been frequent contributors.
The Tahs were one side who recently tasted defeat to Saints, losing by 13 points, but were also down a player or two throughout the season.
Annabel Kievet, who was injured midseason, is still the team’s leading goal kicker, and is a noted threat across the ground.
The return of Mia Haas and Jordan Mifsu will bolster the squad’s depth in this match-up.
But most important is neutralizing Saints’ strike options, and the defensive team including Lauren Pluker know they will be up against it there.
Our tip: Saints by 12 points.
Nightcliff Tigers vs Darwin Buffaloes
TIO Stadium - 4.15pm
It will be the Tigers, entering Men’s Premier League finals with the competition’s best momentum after winning seven on the trot, including a 70-point smashing of Buffs in Round 16, that are red hot favourites.
And back in the Nightcliff side comes twin towers John Butcher and Sam Overall, who were unstoppable that night, especially in the second quarter which yielded a-near season high of nine contested marks in the forward 50.
A team which struggled to kick winning scores in the first half of the season have well and truly found their kicking boots, with big scores of 128 and 96 against Buffs and Tiwi Bombers respectively as the returning Jay Moody kicked two bags of four.
The Tiger defence, the league’s most stingy, welcomes back Simon Deery for the elimination final, too.
Meanwhile, the Buffs were badly beaten last round by Southern Districts with only Mitch Robinson appearing to have a strong afternoon in the midfield (27 touches, 11 clearances and a goal).
There are also doubts over Jarrod Stokes’ fitness after appearing to suffer a hamstring injury against the Crocs.
However, with Liam Holt-Fitz, Patrick Boles and Tom Baulch returning to the squad, and the only top five team the Buffs have beaten this year being the Tigers, where there’s life there’s hope.
Head coach Cam Stokes is aware of the challenge which awaits his team.
“There’s obviously no tomorrow for this one,” Stokes said.
“We’ll throw all of our eggs in this one and give it a real crack.
“We’re quietly confident we can come away with this one, we have a number of key players back in the side and we’re really confident about our squad.”
Some heavy rain during the week, and plenty forecast for Saturday, should even the contest for the Buffs, but there’s an irrepressible element to Nightcliff’s footy at the moment and it feels like its best is still to come.
Our tip: Nightcliff by 30 points
Waratah vs St Mary’s
TIO Stadium - 6.45pm
Major rivals St Mary’s and Waratah will enter yet another finals battle, but will the see-saw nature of their previous encounters continue?
The reigning premiers were embarrassed in the opening round of the season, losing by 101 points, but then got revenge stealing a single-point victory on the buzzer in Round 17.
Another battle between the pair concluded in Round 18 with Saints forward Jackson Calder winning the leading goal kicker count with 51 goals, one more than Tahs’ Jayden Magro.
Saints have ace Dylan Landt back in the fold after he was rested in Round 18, while fly-in star Joshua Smithson also returns.
The Green Machine’s defence will come under the spotlight once again, particularly Kieran Parnell, who will more than likely get the job on Magro.
The West Australian was the league’s premier forward for the majority of the season, before Parnell kept him goalless in Round 17.
For Waratah, vice-captain Dylan Collis has been one of the standout players throughout the 2022-23 NTFL season, and has injected some versatility since moving into the midfield.
Abe Ankers and Will Collis are also both back in the 22 while ruckman Arnold Kirby has been impressive, third in the league for hitouts.
This contest is an almost impossible one to call given recent history, and may well come down to who handles the conditions better.
It could be a case of individual battles and one percenters where any one player, on either side, could make the difference.
The only thing certain is that this will be a fiery contest.
Our tip: Saints by five points
Best player ratings and analysis from Round 18
The NTFL regular season has finally drawn to a close, and Round 18 complete with a thrilling goal kicking race and four out of five finals-bound sides recording big wins.
In the men’s competition Nightcliff, Districts, St Mary’s and Waratah pulled off the win.
And in the women’s league Nightcliff, Buffaloes, St Mary’s and Waratah all pulled off convincing wins to close out the regular season.
Nightcliff’s unrivalled momentum
Nightcliff will enter another Men’s Premier League finals series with the strongest momentum of any top five side.
Banking their seventh win on the trot against the Tiwi Bombers in Round 18, the Tigers will fancy their chances against the Darwin Buffaloes in the elimination final, who they towelled up by 70 points just a few weeks ago.
That night in Round 16, John Butcher and Sam Overall could not be contained by the Buffs defence as they delivered 13 goals between them and plenty of forward 50 marks.
And despite the pair missing in Round 18, the Tigers will racked up another huge score against the Bombers, after a worrying five-game slump.
In fact, Nightcliff should have won by much more, with poor kicking for goal (13.18.96) the only thing saving the Bombers from a three figure loss.
After missing a chunk of games due to osteitis pubis, Jay Moody has returned to kick eight majors from his past two games, and was everywhere in the final quarter at Gardens Oval.
Nightcliff’s forward line is still a work in progress with Overall telling this publication after the Round 16 game he was unsure of his exact commitments in MPL for the remainder of the 2022-23 season.
However, in a positive for the Buffs, key marking forward Daniel Stafford kicked three against Southern Districts, while Mitch Robinson is back after a few games away.
Small forward Liam Holt-Fitz, who has been in solid form of late but did not play against the Crocs, will be looking to turn it on against his former team.
But the biggest question mark will be on the fitness of Jarrod Stokes, who was limping during the Round 18 match against the Crocs with a suspected hamstring injury.
Tiwi Bombers vs Nightcliff Tigers player ratings
3. Brodie Filo (Nightcliff)
2. Bailey Edwards (Nightcliff)
1. Luke Wines (Nightcliff)
Districts disjointed run
It will be interesting to see if the ladder leaders lose any momentum as they take another Saturday off.
Southern Districts, who pushed Buffs aside by 52 points in Round 18, will play two games in a month after having the bye in Round 17.
The Crocs were back to their prolific best - kicking their fifth 100-plus score for the season - with key forward Sam Dunstan slotting four while there was a blast from the past in Jonathon Ross kicking a six-pointer in his only MPL game for the season after three in the reserves.
On the plus side, the Crocs have done all they can after a dirty afternoon against Nightcliff in Round 14, while midfield beast Cam Ellis-Yolmen returned for his first MPL match since mid-November.
After absolutely belting Tiwi Bombers, Districts has also recorded strong wins over PINT and Buffs to close out the home and away season.
They have been the season’s biggest improvers, helped by stellar debut seasons from Matt Dennis and Matt Shannon.
However, it appears reliable, rebound defender Brodie Lake will not return for finals, having not played MPL since Round 13 against Palmerston.
Their next meeting will come against either St Mary’s or Waratah, two sides in stellar form, in the qualifying semi-final.
Districts vs Buffaloes player ratings
3. Matt Dennis (Districts)
2. Jake McQueen (Districts)
1. John Vrodos (Buffaloes)
Should the women’s comp have a fly-in rule?
The fly-in player rule has become a discussion point once again in recent weeks, this time in regards to the Women’s Premier League.
Unlike the men’s competition, there is no player point system or fly-in rule for the women, meaning players can move more freely between teams.
The women’s competition, particularly among the top five, is more competitive than it has ever been and should be celebrated.
However, the lack of restrictions on player movement becomes a major issue when there’s a growing disparity between the stronger clubs and those with less resources.
For example, Darwin Buffettes premiership players Jemma Iacono and Tikesa Docherty-Cole went to St Mary’s over the offseason, making the Saints a lot stronger.
Under the MPL rules, they both would have been four point players, making them harder to recruit.
Meanwhile, Wanderers have been the battlers of the 2022-23 season, coming up against stronger sides which have reportedly fielded more than five fly-ins at times.
Palmerston and Districts have also struggled with much younger, less-experienced sides than the majority of their rivals.
Is it time to enforce similar rules for the women?
Ruthless St Mary’s defence
St Mary’s sent a message to the rest of Men’s Premier League after an absolutely ruthless defensive display which kept the Muk Muks goalless for three and a half quarters.
Wanderers burst out of the gates early, scoring three goals within the opening five minutes of the match through the likes of Nathan Arbon and Beau O’Connell.
It was the perfect start for the Muk Muks, but it was the only period of the match they could celebrate.
St Mary’s, who were obviously slow to start, were watertight in defence from then on, shutting the door on any opportunity the Eagles had to score.
Kieran Parnell, Lucas Jellyman-Turner and Matthew Green were the glue that held the backline together.
Even points were treated as a precious commodity by the Green Machine, with Jacob Long - keeping the ball in play along the last line of defence in the fourth quarter - the best example of the defence’s stinginess and workrate.
It was a statement-making day for the reigning premiers, with full forward Jackson Calder kicking seven goals to claim the Dennis Dunn.
The Saints proved they can get the job done without star Dylan Landt, who was rested in the lead-up to finals.
Nate Paredes ruled the roost, darting out of the midfield and kicking a few goals, while Sam Fowler and Nick Yarran were also busy.
It was a great tune-up for a side who now head into the qualifying final against second-placed Waratah, who will be out for revenge after losing their previous encounter in Round 17 by a point.
Wanderers vs St Mary’s Player Ratings
3. Lucas Jellyman-Turner (Saints)
2. Nate Paredes (Saints)
1. Jackson Calder (Saints)
Back to the drawing board
As the top five head into finals for a shot at the premiership, it’s back to the drawing board for the remaining four clubs.
PINT bowed out in Round 17, playing their last game of the season against Nightcliff in a match they could have won.
However, despite missing out on finals action, the Greenants undoubtedly impressed in their first season in Men’s Premier League.
Six points short of finals, PINT will now look to strengthen their core squad, with Wanderers’ Steven Motlop already rumoured to be joining.
Further questions will be asked of the other three clubs who missed out.
After a positive start to the season, the Magpies fell away hard losing key players to southern competitions, like Baxter Mensch and Tristan Waack.
However, they spent the back half of the year focused on developing their juniors, a move which could pay dividends in future seasons.
Josh Heath has been reappointed too in a further sign of stability.
Wanderers are a side brimming with talent, but faltered in key matches and will rue missed opportunities.
A 1.7 opening quarter against Waratah in Round 7 and three goals against Saints within five minutes, only to go goalless for the rest of the match, were indicative of the Muk Muks’ wasted season.
And finally, Tiwi.
If anything, this was perhaps a more positive season than the previous ones as they won their first game in 988 days on their return to playing at Wurrimiyanga.
However, they still forfeit a match and had to move one of their home games because of issues on the islands.
There is still a long way to go for each of these sides, and it will be interesting to see what moves they make in the off season.
Palmerston Magpies vs Waratah
3. Robert Turnbull (Waratah)
2. Scott Carlin (Waratah)
1. Marcus Wattie (Warath)
Live stream: How to watch Buffaloes v Palmerston in Round 16
Palmerston and the Buffaloes are in the wooden spoon decider, with both sides targeting a strong showing to finish their season on a good note. Find out how to watch the match LIVE here.
Live stream: How to watch Waratah v Nightcliff in Round 16
Waratah and Nightcliff both have plenty to play for when they clash in the annual Battle of the Beaches with a top three spot still a chance for both. Find out how to watch the match LIVE.