The NT News predicts who will win in Round 18 of the 2022-23 NTFL season
The last round of the NTFL regular season is upon us with plenty of sides still having a point to prove before finals. We’ve analysed each match and predicted who will win and why.
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The last round of the NTFL regular season is upon us with plenty of sides still having a point to prove before finals.
Nightcliff and Tiwi will get proceedings underway at Gardens Oval, with the Tigers in with a chance to extend their winning streak to seven matches.
Then, over at TIO Stadium we have the match of the round between two sides heading to finals, Darwin Buffaloes and Southern Districts.
The other matches include St Mary’s and Wanderers at TIO Stadium, and a clash between Palmerston and Waratah at Cazalys Arena.
Tiwi Bombers vs Nightcliff Tigers
There are two clear objectives for the fourth-placed Tigers at Gardens Oval: get through the match unscathed and rack up a healthy score.
This is far from a dead rubber for Nightcliff who can leap to third on the Men’s Premier League ladder with a big win over the Bombers and if Saints lose for the second time this season to Wanderers.
And after losing key man Shaun Wilson to a season-ending injury in the Round 16 match against Darwin Buffaloes, the Tigers will be hoping to keep its casualty list short approaching finals with Cam Ilett missing too, reportedly due to a calf complaint.
Nightcliff welcomes back some quality in ruckman Jackson Bowen, Brodie Filo and James Gow but John Butcher and Sam Overall have not been named, reducing its capacity to kick a monster score.
Butcher, Wilson and Overall have been the club’s most prolific in front of goals in a season not noted for large scores, so the Tigers will look to Filo, Jay Moody (four last week against PINT) and Peter Politis for six-pointers.
Meanwhile, the Tigers will also debut young Finnis Trigwell after a strong season in the Under 18 competition.
For the Bombers, who were competitive for a half against Palmerston in Round 17, will be relieved when the final siren sounds on an incredibly tough 2022-23 campaign.
There were bright spots at times, with a win and a draw against PINT, but it’s been a nightmare after the Christmas break, with an average losing margin of 75 points.
It’s difficult to see the Bombers kicking anything meaningful against the league’s stingiest defence, with an average score of 40 since the break.
Their leading goal kicker, Stanley Tipiloura, has slotted one major in that time while second-placed Kim Kantilla left for South Australia in mid-November.
Our tip: Nightcliff by 60 points.
Darwin Buffaloes vs Southern Districts
For Darwin Buffaloes, a match-up against the league’s top side, Southern Districts, is a chance to prove they belong in finals.
The Double Blues have been placed in the NTFL top five for the best part of the season, but have struggled recently, particularly when compared to the top bracket of teams.
Many of their issues have come down to an inability to field a consistent squad, week after week.
However, the squad named to play Districts is the exact same as what the Buffs fielded in their big Round 17 win against Wanderers.
Jarrod Stokes was electric - as he has been all season - against the Muk Muks, bursting out of midfield to supply his forwards with plenty of opportunities.
In a further plus, Mitch Robinson will play his second consecutive match after missing several after the representative match against South Fremantle.
Excitement machines Tom Baulch and Liam Holt-Fitz will also provide options in the forward line.
However, crucially, Buffs have only won one game against another top five side this season; a stat which plays into Districts’ hands.
The Crocs are in need of a good tune-up in a match which will sit directly between two weekends off.
Meanwhile, Michael Bowden and Frazer Driscoll are two of the league’s most consistent defenders and will punish Buffs’ inaccuracies.
And it could be a tough day for whoever finds themselves up against the league’s standout ruckman in Matt Dennis, while Luke Smith has also been one of the Crocs’ best.
Districts will also welcome back the versatile Matt Shannon back to the fold after he was struck down by injury during the rep game.
Both sides have a point to prove and form to maintain, but a well-rested Districts will fancy their chances.
Our tip: Districts by 12 points.
Wanderers vs St Mary’s
St Mary’s can secure the finals double chance if they fend off fierce rivals Wanderers at TIO Stadium.
The last time these sides met, all the way back in Round 4, Saints couldn’t buy a goal and stumbled to a three-point loss to the Muk Muks.
That was also the turning point in the Green Machine’s season, with Saints putting together a five-match winning streak from there on.
For Wanderers, however, apart from another scrappy win over Nightcliff in Round 9, that was the high point of their season.
St Mary’s are a much changed team to the one from those early stages of the season, boasting an embarrassment of riches in most positions.
However, if PlayHQ is to be believed, second-half specialist and all-around star Dylan Landt will miss the match - presumably in preparation for tougher matches to come.
His brother Jack has been named, and he will once again add an extra scoring option for the Saints.
But with the Dennis Dunn leading goalkicker award on the line, Saints will be looking to provide all the ball they can to full-forward Jackson Calder.
Speaking about forwards, Steven Motlop kicked 12 in his previous NTFL appearance, against Tiwi, but will face stiffer competition in the likes of Kieran Parnell.
Beau O’Connell has also been a consistent bright spot in this Wanderers outfit, and will supply plenty of ball to the forwards, if he doesn’t choose to kick a goal or two himself.
However, Wanderers hopes truly rest with defensive dynamos Brodie Newman and Mitchel Taylor who have carried the side all year, even when results haven’t come through.
Wanderers will push to beat their rivals, but this is Saints’ match to lose with a double chance on the line.
Our tip: St Mary’s by 26 points.
Palmerston Magpies vs Waratah
Waratah will have plenty to play for against a far different looking Palmerston side to when they last met in Round 4.
At Gardens Oval in late October, the Pies boasted the likes of Tristen Waack, Neville Jetta, Eddie Betts, Travis Varcoe, Sam Clohesy, Chris Williams and Baxter Mensch, even if they went down by 13 points after a slow start.
None of those faces will be seen at Cazalys Arena in Round 18 as Pies coach Josh Heath looks to blood youth and prepare for the 2023-24 season.
The Pies scored their first win in more than three months when it beat the Bombers last round, but will face a far superior outfit in Tahs.
Waratah, without Abe Ankers and Will Collis named, will be looking to build some pre-finals consistency after playing just three games since the Christmas break, following a forfeit and a bye.
And it will be stung after coughing up a strong, early lead against St Mary’s in Round 17, despite Darcy Hope’s seven majors.
The Saints will remain in the back of their mind too, just four points behind them with a similar percentage.
If St Mary’s dispatch Wanderers in a big way, and Tahs lose, they could swap places on the MPL ladder.
However, expect a response from Ryan Ayres’ men with leading MPL goal kicker Jayden Magro kept quiet last round and leading Jackson Calder by a solitary goal for the Dennis Dunn award.
Our tip: Waratah by 50 points.
WHAT WE LEARNED FROM ROUND 17
The finals placings are now all locked in for the NTFL after the thrilling round tossed up plenty of talking points.
In the men’s competition Palmerston, St Mary’s, Nightcliff and Buffaloes all tasted victory.
Meanwhile, in the women’s competition it was Tiwi, St Mary’s, Buffaloes and PINT who came out on top.
Palmerston focused on young contingent
Plenty of former AFL talent has donned the black and white jumper at Cazalys Arena this season.
But with none of those ex-stars still turning out at the club, and the departure of three of their most consistent performers, the Pies have been left gutted by the closing rounds of 2022-23.
Alongside Gary Ablett Jr’s historic NTFL debut in November, Eddie Betts, Cam Pedersen and Neville Jetta returned in 22-23 while former Geelong and Collingwood forward Travis Varcoe also played five Men’s Premier League matches, with the vast majority in the opening rounds.
Ex-Richmond midfielder Ben Nason has also chipped in with four games.
However, Jetta has not been seen since Round 9 while Betts remains the club’s leading goal kicker with 24 majors despite having not played in the Territory since mid-January.
With three of their best in Baxter Mensch, Tristan Waack and Sam Clohesy also departing and senior numbers thin, the Pies have at least blooded a number of teenagers in 22-23.
For example, the Pies have got games into Enrique Andrews (six MPL matches), Round 17 Rising Star nominee Sam McNaughton (five), Brandon McConnell and Jordan Clyne (two) at the highest level.
After getting all the headlines early on in the season for its injection of legendary talent, junior development should be top of the priority list in 23-24.
Palmerston vs Tiwi Player Ratings
3. Eric Guthrie (Palmerston)
2. Harley Bennell (Tiwi)
1. Josiah Farrer (Palmerston)
The goalkicking race is still on
The grand final rematch between St Mary’s and Waratah more than lived up to the hype, and has set up an exciting race for the goal-kicking medal in the final round.
Waratah hit hard early on with Darcy Hope kicking four first quarter goals, forcing the reigning premiers to respond.
The scores were tied once more on the buzzer at full time, but Saints stole the win with ruck Brandyn Grenfell kicking the winning point.
However, one of the most interesting battles, in a match full of them, was the contest for the comp’s leading goal scorer between Waratah’s Jayden Magro (45) and Saints’ Jackson Calder (now 44).
One key moment in that duel was a free kick in the goal square for St Mary’s on the toll of half time when Waratah full-back Dan O’Dwyer laid a big hit on Mitch Musgrove.
The ball went the Green Machine’s way, but there was some discussion between Calder and the explosive Jack Landt on who would take the kick.
Eventually the ball went to Landt who duly sealed the six-pointer, but with Calder scoring three other goals, it left him one major behind the leader.
Either way, Calder and St Mary’s owe a lot to the defensive efforts of Kieran Parnell who prevented Magro from getting more than a single shot at goal for the match.
Calder and Magro, who played together for Cairns City Lions in 2022, will be looking for bags in the final round.
Facing Wanderers and Palmerston respectively, both will fancy their chances of taking the title for season 2022-23.
St Mary’s vs Waratah player ratings
3. Dylan Landt (Saints)
2. Darcy Hope (Waratah)
1. Kieren Parnell (Saints)
PINT exceeded expectations in their first season
The sheer fact PINT were a chance, however slim, of making the finals entering Round 17 indicates they perhaps exceeded expectations in their debut season in Men’s Premier League
The Greenants took big strides in 2022-23, taking the scalp of the reigning premier, getting within four points of the league leaders Southern Districts and pushing Waratah to the line at DXC in the wet.
However, their season was ultimately knocked off course by the most unlikely challenger: the Tiwi Bombers.
A 15-point win in late October was Tiwi’s only one for the season while a draw in Round 11 also hurt PINT’s chance of locking a final five place away.
The challenge now will be to convert those competitive, honorable losses into victories in season 23-24.
This year, PINT lost eight games by under 30 points, with its biggest loss being 34-points against Districts in Round 16.
While the Greenants have had an even spread of goal kickers this season, perhaps an injection of pace and a big-marking, focal point could be a handy addition next season.
Their biggest contributor was Jett Trotter with 18 majors, well behind competition leader in Jayden Magro (45).
PINT vs Nightcliff Tigers player ratings
3. Jay Moody (Nightcliff)
2. Brayden Taylor (PINT)
1. Daniel Jackson (Nightcliff)
Buffaloes are safe, but can’t take the foot off the gas
The Buffaloes have now sealed their place in the final five, but it’s no time to take their foot off the gas.
It was pretty easy going last round for the Double Blues as they charged to a 15.17 (107) to 4.11 (35) win over a depleted Wanderers outfit.
However, Buffs have much greater foes to come, and if anything they’re unproven against the best teams, last beating a current top five side (Nightcliff) in Round 8.
It’s a concern for a side who are heading into the elimination final against a Tiger side who beat them in Round 16 by 70 points.
Buffaloes are a team who have plenty of talent, but have lagged behind the best because they haven’t fielded their best team consistently.
Skipper Jarrod Stokes has been the club standout and a consistent thorn for any opposition.
But in recent weeks the main support crew in the midfield has consistently changed, whether due to injury (Mitch Robinson), the tribunal (Tanner Coulthard) or interstate commitments (Tom Baulch, Ryan Pendlebury).
The other question is: will marquee fly-ins Guy Lok and Dom Brew make a return for finals?
At this stage of the season Buffs can’t afford to rest their best, because they need time together to gel.
Especially in the forward line against a Nightcliff defence which doesn’t provide many opportunities.
Daniel Stafford, Liam Holt-Fitz, Matt Campbell and Baulch are all proven goalkickers, but the Buffs can be wayward
With one more week before finals, facing the competition leader in Southern Districts could be just the tonic to get their house in order.
Wanderers vs Darwin Buffaloes player ratings
3. Jarrod Stokes (Buffaloes)
2. Tom Baulch (Buffaloes)
3. Bradley Stokes (Buffaloes)
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