Inflation may have peaked, and interest rates could also be nearing their zenith – even if only temporarily, according to markets, which are pricing in almost no chance of an increase. But that doesn’t necessarily make it easier for investors to choose which way to invest.

As Future Fund chief executive Raphael Arndt told the Australian Financial Review Alpha Live Summit last week, the bond market expects a recession is on the way. On the other hand, equity markets are remarkably buoyant.