A $14 billion hit to the economy in the first three months of the year from the coronavirus and bushfires could snowball into Australia's first recession in 29 years, but one with a sharp recovery, economists say.

All four of the big bank economists forecast the economy to contract in the March quarter. They are also recalibrating their views on the June quarter and the federal budget position following the Reserve Bank's and Treasury's estimate of a 0.7 percentage point hit to the economy in the March quarter.