There are probably just two Reserve Bank board meetings before the federal election. The first is on February 17-18, the second on March 31-April 1. The government obviously hopes the RBA will cut rates at one or both of those meetings. In fact, that’s the gamble it made when it came into office.

But these won’t be two ordinary meetings. The newly constituted monetary policy board starting in March creates some interesting dynamics. Will the existing board want to start an interest rate loosening cycle in its last meeting? Or will it wait for the new board to make that decision – with two more monthly consumer price figures to inform it?