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Richard Holden

Yesterday

RBA governor Michele Bullock.

Why is the RBA acting scared of Jim Chalmers?

The governor and deputy governor’s dangerous signals of non-independence threaten the secret sauce of central banking.

This Month

Subsidies under Anthony Albanese’s Labor government, and the previous Morrison government, have driven up childcare prices.

The case for making childcare costs tax deductable

Government contributions will again increase demand without boosting supply. No wonder fees keep rising.

August

 The statistical tools of the credibility revolution are particularly important for informing public policy.

The two words you should always treat with caution in business

Sentences which begin “Studies show...” are often followed by a description of a correlation interpreted as if it were a causal relationship - when it’s not.

Why people really hate inflation, but politicians don’t get it

Prices are about 15 per cent higher than when the Albanese government was elected. People just hate that. The more interesting question is, why?

Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia Michelle Bullock during yesterday’s news conference.

Bullock talks tough, but board can’t stomach raising rates

The RBA has squibbed again this month. With long-run credibility on the line, it needs to focus on getting inflation inside the target band.

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July

Why is Australia doing well on income mobility relative to other countries? One big reason is tertiary education.

The land of the fair go is taxing social mobility

Australia’s antiquated over-reliance on income taxes means that if you do manage to succeed, then that success is taxed heavily.

Donald Trump at the debate: Joe Biden’s performance has obscured the serious flaws in Trump’s economic plans.

The economic consequences of re-elected President Donald Trump

Trump’s first-term tariffs did not crater the US or world economies. The same cannot be said for his far more ambitious plans the second time around.

June

 In an extraordinary admission in response to a press conference question Governor Bullock admitted that raising interest rates would “knock us off the narrow path” to a soft landing.

The RBA is refusing to act like inflation is a problem

Apparently the Reserve Bank thinks raising rates would trigger a technical recession, so don’t expect our inflation-driven cost-of-living crisis to end soon.

RBA governor Michele Bullock isn’t getting the news she wants on inflation.

The three key lessons for RBA and our leaders to defeat inflation

Interest rates are going to have to stay (or go) higher for longer, and governments are going to have to stop expanding their spending so rapidly.

May

Last year’s budget expanded net spending by 0.8 per cent of gross domestic product in a year. This year it’s another 1.5 per cent. And those increases look permanent.

Forget policy, Albonomics is all politics

The budget is just more hard proof that Australia has not elected a government driven by policy since Kevin Rudd’s Labor in 2007.

April

Anthony Albanese was the workers’ friend before the election, promising that wages would rise.

Australia’s last-mile inflation looks like the last 10 miles

The Albanese government took power promising to increase wages. It was a risky gamble that is not paying off.

Albanese’s central argument for his “Made in Australia” is a subtle variation on the standard 8-year-old’s defence for bad behaviour: “but they did it first.”

The dangers in using the wrong policy tools for the jobs

There are tangible costs and collateral damage when governments use the wrong instruments for the task at hand.

The net zero transition is going to change the picture of demand for capital.

Can Australia compete in the new post-inflation world?

The “new neutral” medium-term interest rate will make global competition for capital far more intense. The country needs to get ready for that.

March

We need the kind of expertise that foreign central banks have had for a long time.

Reserve Bank refresh is on shaky ground

Nothing good comes from negotiating with the Greens. The better option is Jim Chalmers cutting a deal with Angus Taylor to establish the new monetary policy board.

Who did that revenue go to? Not Meta and Google. It overwhelmingly went to online pure plays like realestate.com.au, Domain, seek, and Carsales.

Subsidise journalism, don’t shake down big tech

Meta and Google may be where the money is, but that doesn’t mean we should steal it from them. Even if it’s used for a good cause.

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February

Under the plan Australia would tax its own fossil fuel exports to fund a new set of winners to be chosen.

Garnaut-Sims power plan is big on ambition, short on logic

The $100 billion carbon tax proposal would penalise Australians, deter greener energy switches in Asia, and would be impossible to implement.

RBA governor Michele Bullock.

Bullock’s Q&A was what the RBA’s been missing

Gone are the days of Alan Greenspan-like, inscrutable “Fedspeak”. The straight-talking governor’s first media conference was all killer no filler.

January

This is the wrong policy done in the wrong way, driven by politics and the arbitrary structuring of the budget.

Tax cut retreat is a loss in the global war for talent

This is the wrong policy done in the wrong way, driven by politics and the arbitrary structuring of the budget.

  • Updated
RBA governor Michelle Bullock

This is not America: rates are not coming down in 2024

There are no grounds for the cash rate to fall here in 2024. The Albanese government’s big job will be selling that reality to voters.

  • Updated

November 2023

Universities are likely to respond only in bad ways if they lose income.

Taxing foreign students will have a terrible cost

A levy will not make Australian universities more resilient, but the opposite. And visa scams and housing shortages should be addressed directly, not with the blunt instrument of a tax.

Original URL: https://www.afr.com/by/richard-holden-p4yvjy