The Reserve Bank of Australia made three 25 basis point cuts to official interest rates in June, July and October last year, bringing the cash rate to a historically low 0.75 per cent. With the effective lower bound on rates being 0.25 per cent, this year is all about whether, and when, the bank will cut to that level.

Plenty of commentators have warned against a cut when the RBA board meets next Tuesday – including the experienced and thoughtful former board member Warwick McKibbin.