Australia’s economy will markedly slow but will dodge a recession this year thanks to surges in migration and government subsidies – in contrast to Europe and New Zealand, which are already in a downturn, or on the verge of one.

That’s the view from The Australian Financial Review’s survey of 40 economists, who suggest the local economy will slow to about 1 per cent by the middle of the year before rebounding to 2.1 per cent in 2025. All but one said there would be two consecutive quarters of negative growth, the technical marker for a recession.