April 2024
- Opinion
- Inside China
Battered from all sides, China needs new solutions
Mindful of the inspiration deficit that ultimately brought the East Asian growth miracle crashing down, Chinese policymakers must seize the moment.
- Updated
- Opinion
- China
China stifles the debate it needs to have
What is the point of attending China’s most important public forum if foreign delegates are instructed before going on stage not to say anything negative about the economic outlook.
- Opinion
- China relations
America and its self-defeating Sinophobes
Excessive fear of Chinese competition is blinding Americans to the real weaknesses in their economy that need to be addressed.
December 2023
- Opinion
- Global economy
Three lessons from my 50 years of forecasting
Confession: my crystal ball has been cracked countless times by purportedly unprecedented developments.
- Updated
November 2023
- Opinion
- China relations
Three ways the Biden-Xi summit can help the world
This week’s meeting must produce tangible, practical and symbolic improvements in relations between China and the US.
August 2023
- Opinion
- China’s Great Slowdown
China draws debt-fuelled growth line in sand
By opting for surprisingly small measures, the Communist Party leadership is accepting an over-leveraged Chinese economy that cannot afford another round of debt-financed stimulus.
- Opinion
- Global economy
China decoupling comes with a high price tag for America
Regardless of whether politicians obfuscate reality by calling it “de-risking”, there is no escaping the deleterious effects on the US economy.
June 2023
- Opinion
- China relations
Managing China with Kissinger-style personal diplomacy is a dead end
Shifting to a more institutionalised model of engagement would take conflict resolution out of the hands of hyper-reactive, politically constrained leaders.
- Opinion
- AI
Why censorship is the big ‘if’ about China’s AI future
The major pitfall for a ChatGPT with Chinese characteristics are the strict political rules for sticking to the party line.
May 2023
- Opinion
- Globalisation
The high price of decoupling China
Lower growth, higher inflation, and a weaker US dollar are all likely outcomes if the Sino-American economic chill continues to deepen..
January 2023
- Opinion
- Inside China
Wall Street’s biggest China optimist says Xi is killing the dream
A generation of Chinese reformers came close to creating the promised land of economic development. Xi Jinping”s fixation with security is now laying waste to it.
August 2022
- Opinion
- Inside China
In Xi’s China, dogma trumps everything
The country’s economic slowdown is not just a natural plateau, or the unwinding of massive debt. It’s a deliberate choice to put ideology ahead of even economic growth.
April 2022
- Opinion
- Global economy
A global recession is coming, whatever the IMF thinks
The idea that an outright recession can be avoided as interest rates rise to tackle inflation and the China cushion deflates may be wishful thinking by the IMF.
March 2022
- Opinion
- Russia-Ukraine war
Xi Jinping must do the unthinkable, and broker peace for Ukraine
If China’s leader really wants to be a historic statesman, he can turn his toxic alliance with Putin into leverage for a Ukrainian settlement.
February 2022
- Opinion
- China relations
This is a turning point in Cold War 2.0
In 1972, Henry Kissinger triangulated Beijing against Moscow. Now Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are playing the same manoeuvre against the US.
January 2022
- Opinion
- Monetary policy
The US Federal Reserve is still playing with fire on interest rates
A huge stimulus added to the longest period of negative interest rates in modern times could be the riskiest experiment in the Fed’s history. The exit will rock the markets.
September 2021
- Opinion
- Global economy
Evergrande is not China’s biggest problem
People should worry less about the property developer and more about a major rethinking of the country’s growth model.
July 2021
- Opinion
- Inside China
China threatens its own future by stifling its tech giants
The tension between state control and the animal spirits of China’s private sector raises serious doubts about the economy’s ability to keep thriving.
May 2021
- Opinion
- Inflation
Ghost of the ’70s haunts US Fed
The world has paid a heavy price before for cavalierly dismissing inflationary costs as “transitory”.
April 2021
- Opinion
- Biden's White House
How I got my ‘double dip recession’ forecast so wrong
The worst forecasting mistake of my career? It sure seems that way. Rather than the relapse that I was looking for, there is now widespread talk of an open-ended boom.