Economist Min Zhu, speaking at a World Economic Forum panel in China in late June, was among the first to hint at China’s underwhelming post-COVID policy stimulus. Zhu, a former deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund, as well as a former deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), is no casual observer of the Chinese economy and its role in the world. He is also one of my oldest and wisest friends in China, and I have learned to take his views very seriously.

Zhu’s prediction has proved to be accurate. Despite a promising snapback after the abrupt zero-COVID exit, China’s economic rebound has faltered in recent months. Many had hoped that the government would respond to this shortfall and introduce another large-scale stimulus package, as is its usual practice. Yet a series of announcements in mid-August from the PBOC, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), and the State Council has dashed those hopes.

Project Syndicate