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China’s Great Slowdown

This Month

Wendy Qian, 25, facing finding a job in Australia after graduation difficult.

A master’s no longer a golden ticket – just ask the AI job interviewer

Wendy Qin has a higher degree in management on top of her commerce degree. She applied for 40 jobs before landing her first gig.

March

A news report of Xi Jinping, China’s president, at the National People’s Congress displayed a screen in Beijing, China.

Signs of consumer pick-up as China fights off tariff hit

Data released on Tuesday showed retail sales rose 4 per cent in the January-February period, better than a 3.7 per cent rise in December. 

Chinese President Xi Jinping.

China set to repeat 5pc growth target at annual political gathering

Investors and markets are watching the National People’s Congress for signs of how Xi Jinping plans to withstand Donald Trump’s tariffs on the sluggish economy.

February

A wander around Beijing’s and Shanghai’s empty shopping malls and half-filled restaurants makes the point.  But in other cities, such as Hangzhou, the home of Alibaba and DeepSeek, a different story is told.

DeepSeek is a sign of China’s structural shift, not decline

Contrary to the narrative that China’s private sector has been squeezed into irrelevance, major developments in new industries are being led by young entrepreneurs.

January

A Chinese worker makes new year lanterns at a factory in Weifang in eastern China’s Shandong province.

China’s economy loses steam ahead of new year holiday

The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to 49.1, the lowest since August, missing economists’ forecast for a modest expansion.

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Employees assemble new energy vehicles at an intelligent factory of electric vehicle enterprise Leapmotor.

Has China already reached peak oil?

The country’s demand for crude seems to be plateauing sooner than expected. The implications are huge

The closure of Port Hedland has temporarily disrupted iron ore supply.

Iron ore could collapse 30pc as Rio Tinto floods market

The latest rally in iron ore prices is expected to be short-lived, with Westpac warning the commodity could plummet 30 per cent from current levels.

Chinese President Xi Jinping delivers his New Year message.

China poised to hit its 2024 growth target: Xi

The Chinese president’s disclosure capped off a year of economic uncertainty, with the growth goal initially seen as a ‘target without a plan’.

December 2024

Hunting down winter bargains in Beijing. Consumption remains weak in China.

Weak consumption drags on China as Trump tariff threat looms

Weaker retail figures come despite a boost from online shopping promotions and government-subsidised trade-in programs that have lifted sales in some sectors.

China’s intention to deliver more stimulus has kept iron ore prices above $US100.

China slowdown to rip $8.5b from federal budget: Chalmers

The treasurer’s downbeat assessment came despite Beijing last week announcing plans to stoke the country’s slowing economy next year with a “moderately loose” monetary policy.

Xi Jinping

China’s ‘bazooka’ stimulus will have to wait - again

Beijing says “vigorous” efforts to boost domestic consumption are the country’s top economic priority, but details are once again lacking.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang.

The four charts that show what’s wrong with China’s economy

Key indicators reveal the challenges facing Chinese policymakers as they gather to deal with the task of balancing short-term stimulus with longer-term reforms.

October 2024

A train loaded with iron ore heads toward the port in Western Australia.

Rio Tinto considers iron ore strategy shift

Rio Tinto is reviewing its iron ore product strategy after low-grade volumes accounted for 19 per cent of sales. Analysts say investors should be concerned.

These Chinese government faces some hurdles to delivering the sort of fiscal stimulus markets are looking for.

Why China is hesitant to fire its stimulus bazooka

China bulls want stimulus, and quick. But three big roadblocks stand in the way. 

August 2024

Fortescue Metals chief executive Dino Otranto is laying out the iron ore vision to investors.

Australia’s iron ore future is different, not dead

There’s plenty of red dirt in Fortescue’s results – which makes it a bit different to its two big rivals. Andrew Forrest is in China trying to work it out.

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July 2024

China’s Third Plenum outlined economic reforms but there was little detail.

China cuts key interest rate after Xi’s top meet disappoints

China surprised markets with interest rate cuts on Monday, in efforts to boost growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

Luxury brands roll out huge discounts as Chinese rein in spending

The sales are being offered primarily by aspirational brands such as Versace and Burberry, as China’s once-voracious middle-class consumers become more frugal.

Pedestrians in Beijing’s Wangfujing shopping area. China needs a pick-up in consumer spending to subdue criticism it is heading towards a prolonged period of low growth.

China’s GDP miss set to boost stimulus calls from Third Plenum

China-watchers and investors are doubtful the Third Plenum policy gathering in Beijing will throw up any comprehensive reform.

June 2024

China’s property crisis has crippled the economy.

China’s banks feel the sting as problem loans mount

China’s deepening housing market crisis is eroding the balance sheets of the country’s largest state banks.

Competitors take part in the annual dragon boat race to celebrate the Tuen Ng festival in Hong Kong.

China’s broken housing market and a generation ‘lying flat’

While wallets were open at last weekend’s national Dragon Boat Festival, Chinese consumers are still not spending enough to get the economy out of its housing hole.

Original URL: https://www.afr.com/topic/china-s-great-slowdown-6g6y