Opinion
Three lessons from my 50 years of forecasting
Confession: my crystal ball has been cracked so many times by purportedly unprecedented developments that I have lost count.
Stephen RoachAsia watcherI have been in the forecasting business for more than 50 years. Over that period, I have heard the constant refrain that the world is in the midst of “unprecedented changes”.
This popular trope frequently resulted in equally hyperbolic corollaries: breathless claims that we have never faced greater risks or such an uncertain future, that forecasting has never been harder. Repeat it enough, and it starts to become believable.
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