The seats to watch in the federal election: Liberal Tony Abbott’s seat of Waringah
Tony Abbott is in the fight of his political life to hold the seat of Warringah, with independent candidates lining up to take him on — but experts believe the former Prime Minister could pull off an astonishing victory.
Federal Election
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Warringah
Incumbent: Tony Abbott
Margin: 11.5 per cent
Candidates
Liberal: Tony Abbott
Independent: Zali Steggall, a former skiing champion and a barrister
Independent: Susan Moylan-Coombs, an indigenous television producer and activist
Greens: Kristyn Glanville
Labor: Dean Harris
Local issues
Local infrastructure, energy policy and climate change, health funding, negative gearing and the retiree tax.
CANDIDATES UNITE AGAINST ABBOTT
Tony Abbott is facing the electoral fight of his life to keep Warringah with independent candidates lining up to take him on and activist group Get-Up launching a cashed-up campaign to oust him.
The former prime minister is tipped to narrowly hold on but experts say “anything can happen”.
Abbott won 51.65 per cent of the primary vote in 2016 and he still has an 11.5 per cent margin, which would traditionally be considered “safe”.
He is also known as a strong campaigner with great name recognition.
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His future depends on whether Warringah voters still think he’ll be the best candidate for them or if they want him gone over his role in the government’s instability over the past three years and his stance on climate change and coal.
Independent Zali Steggall will be banking on the latter.
It’s unclear how the Liberal Party’s in principle preferences deal with Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party will play out in the seat.
Griffith University political expert Paul Williams told News Corp that while Abbott was “technically safe” with a margin of 11 per cent, “anything can happen” given his “polarising effect on the NSW Liberal party”.
“Small “L” Liberal voters are deserting the party over Turnbull’s dumping and a failure to adequately address climate change, and even many Libs in Abbott’s own branch wanted to dump him,” Dr Williams said.
“Given he’s facing a popular independent in Zali Steggall, and probably every other candidate preferencing against him, Abbott faces his toughest battle ever.
“But this is a big ask for Steggall who doesn’t quite command the presence of Kerryn Phelps.
“Abbott will probably just hold on, although that would be his last term.”
The NSW state election result will also make Liberals wary in Abbott’s electorate.
The party’s primary vote in the state seat of Manly dropped from a whopping 68 per cent for Mike Baird in 2015 to 53 per cent for James Griffin at the latest poll.
And election analyst Dr Kevin Bonham predicts Abbott’s margin won’t mean anything against a strongly backed independent.
“The last election was a really half-backed effort by those seeking to unseat him,” he said.
“I think (the margin) is irrelevant. I think this is a really serious challenge this time.
“I think that Abbott’s pretty wobbly.
“He’s got such a standing within the seat. It’s not going to be easy. But the argument that he’s safe — I don’t think that holds water at all.”
Veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, a visiting fellow at the Australian Catholic University, tipped the former prime minister to hold on.
“I give Tony Abbott a 60 per cent chance while I give Zali Steggall a 40 per cent chance,” he told News Corp.
WHAT VOTERS WANT
The big issue on voters’ minds in Warringah on election day will be whether Tony Abbott deserves to remain their local member.
But climate change, the economy, local transport and other infrastructure will also be key factors for the northern beaches seat.
Voters are reacting to posts about the need to clean up politics with a National Integrity Commission and political ad reforms on independent candidate Zali Steggall’s official Facebook page.
Steggall’s posts about climate change and “sensible economic policies” are also attracting attention.
Abbott’s social media presence far outstrips his rival, with posts about testimonials from cricketer Brett Lee and other supporters attracting a massive response on his official Facebook page.
Other issues gaining traction for Abbott include being out in the local community, upgrades for the Manly Life Saving Club and the Liberal Party’s record on the economy.
WHAT WILL SWAY THE VOTE IN NEW SOUTH WALES
New South Wales state and federal issues are far more entwined than ever before, political scientist Dr Mark Rolfe says.
The UNSW social sciences professor said the cost of living issues that dominated the March 23 state election will also happen federally.
“Some of this entwining is due to the concurrent power of both tiers in health and education with the ALP branches especially making plays in what are its strong suits. Abortion now adds to this pressure on the Coalition,” Dr Rolfe said.
“Some of this entwining is also due to issues that don’t fall into the concurrent basket but are linked across the tiers.
“Immigration is a federal responsibility but its effects are in the states, as you know, with Gladys (Berejiklian) wanting a reduction in migrants because of the impact on infrastructure.”
Dr Rolfe said environment and renewables were also issues for both levels, with the “ (Berejiklian) government ... attempting to distance itself from ScoMo.”
Dr Rolfe predicted a Labor swing federally.
He said Lucy Wicks (Liberal) in Robertson is on a knife-edge while Labor’s Emma McBride is looking to hold Dobell.
He was also watching Riverina closely, held by Nationals leader Michael McCormack.
“He’s on a big buffer but voters there might be restless.”
Federally, he expects the Liberals to have a difficult time and there’s not much they can do to weather it.
“I think the mind of the electorate is mostly made up … They cannot rely anymore on the winning formulae of John Howard; we’re not in Howardland anymore, Dorothy.”
— Additional reporting by Natasha Christian
Originally published as The seats to watch in the federal election: Liberal Tony Abbott’s seat of Waringah
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