The NT News predicts who will win in Round 4 of the 2022-23 NTFL season
We’re four rounds into the NTFL season and certain sides are putting their hands up for early favourtism with the introduction of some big recruits. We’ve analysed who will win and why.
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We may only be four rounds deep in the 2023-24 NTFL season, but already some sides are putting their hands up for early favourtisim.
The unbeaten Darwin Buffaloes will get the round underway and have three former Brisbane Lions players joining their arsenal against Palmerston.
Meanwhile, PINT and Districts will face off in the match of the round on Saturday with the winner putting themselves in a strong position going forward.
The match between Tiwi and Nightcliff should also be a thriller, while old rivals St Mary’s and Wanderers meet on Sunday.
Buffaloes vs Palmerston
A number of big-name inclusions will bolster the still-unbeaten Darwin Buffaloes when they take on the winless Palmerston at Cazalys Arena.
The Double Blues are without Baxter Mensch for this encounter, and will miss his possessions, but otherwise this is perhaps the best side they’ve fielded this year.
Former Carlton and Brisbane Lions player Mitch Robinson will play his first match of the year, after first appearing in the Buffaloes midfield last year.
He will link up well with skipper Jarrod Stokes, who was in absolutely electric form in both of the Buffaloes matches heading into their Round 3 bye.
Robinson has brought some of his Lions friends, Blake Coleman and Rhys Mathieson, along to make Palmerston’s night just that little bit harder.
And 2017-18 Rising Star winning and 2021-22 NT News Player of the Year Nick Yarran will also play his first game in Buffaloes colours after making the switch from St Mary’s.
He will add some real firepower to the Buffaloes forward line alongside tall forward Daniel Stafford, who has already scored five goals from two matches this season.
For Palmerston it’s hard to say where they will find the front foot with a largely similar side to the one which lost to Tiwi in Round 3.
Ashton Hams will need to be at his ball magnet best and will be key to any inroads forward, while Phil Wills will need to inspire something from his troops.
If the ball does make its way down their end Broderick Church and Joshua Patullo need to have their kicking boots on to keep their side in the contest.
But this will be another tough match for a Palmerston side focused on building its junior base, against a Darwin Buffaloes side which appears to be getting stronger by the week.
Our tip: Darwin Buffaloes
PINT vs Southern Districts
PINT have a chance to beat another NTFL heavyweight when they face a Southern Districts side eager to get a result.
PINT’s only loss this season came against the Buffaloes in Round 1, and it’s one the Greenants led for the majority of the day only to fade late.
The same result seemed likely against the reigning premiers in Round 3, but they hung in that time around to win by a single point.
Steven Motlop was at his best in that game controlling the tempo from the midfield and even notching a major when needed to keep his side afloat.
And it’s his experience, as well as the likes of Thomas Motlop that will be needed again if PINT are put in more situations like that.
Matt Ryan has also been great for the side and has nine goals from three matches to show for it, while Elliott Chalmers has been great in the midfield.
Meanwhile, his is a great Districts side who on their day can mix it with anyone in the competition, however the results have yet to come their way.
Last year’s runners-up currently sit 1-2, with only a 10-point win over an improved Tiwi side to show from their outings so far.
Beau Schwarze has arguably been the side’s most consistent in the early stages of the season, and in a midfield containing Jed Anderson and Roy George can disrupt PINT’s chances.
And Matt Dennis in the ruck will give his men plenty to work with, particularly with full forward Jarrod Brander scoring four goals last week against St Mary’s.
This is a match which could absolutely go either way, but based on form and recent results the Greenants are the slightly favoured side in this one.
Our tip: PINT
Nightclif vs Tiwi
The efficient Nightcliff Tigers are going to put the newly rejuvenated Tiwi Bombers to the test when they clash at TIO Stadium.
When they’re on their game Nightcliff are perhaps the most efficient side in the league at the moment.
They can move the ball swiftly out of their midfield, and once it’s in their forward line they’re more likely to kick a goal than not, as the only side not to exceed eight behinds in a match.
Dual Nichols medallist Brodie Filo has started the season off brilliantly racking up possession after passion, while Adrian Scott also starred in the midfield.
They will still be without Jonathan Lanyon, who was in their best in the opening two rounds, but there’s still plenty of ball users to rely on.
Tigers will also be missing Cody Szuest, who scored five goals against Wanderers, but with Kyle Emery, John Butcher and Cam Ilett in there’s plenty of players who know how to kick a goal.
The Bombers played some of their best footy in four seasons in Round 3 against Palmerston, and it’s a performance they can now build their season around.
A fresh group of coaches, a later TIFL season and the return of Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti have all been factors in their uptick in performance this year.
They will however be without McDonald-Tipungwuti this week, meaning they will have to rely on experience from elsewhere for guidance when the game flows against them.
But this is a side full of x-factor including Kim Kantilla, Brendan Kantilla and Stanley Tipiloura, while Rising Star nominee Karlson Kantilla will once again step up to the plate at ruck.
This Bombers side is a team on the up and if they can turn the contest into a shootout they will be more than in the contest.
However, if Nightcliff find their way on top in the midfield it could be a difficult match up for the Bombers.
Our tip: Nightcliff
St Mary’s vs Wanderers
St Mary’s are arguably the form side in the NTFL at the moment having beaten both of last year’s grand finalists, Waratah and Southern Districts, back to back.
Dylan Landt is in red-hot form whether he’s kicking goals or dominating in the midfield, while brother Jack Landt showed his explosiveness in front of goal against Southern Districts.
Jackson Calder, the league’s most prolific goal kicker in recent times, is also back in the mix while VFL players Sam Glover, Joel Garner and Charlie Offermans will make their first appearances.
And with plenty of other strong performers in the squad, it’s hard to deny this Saints side will be hard for anyone to beat.
For Wanderers’ part they need to get better at how they approach the start of their matches, being put out of the contest by half time against both the Buffaloes and Nightcliff.
They’re a side who have shown plenty of resolve, and have fought back to win the second half in both matches, however a late charge in junk time isn’t the right time to kick into gear.
Ball magnet Nathan Arbon hasn’t been named on the list for this week which leaves more work to do for the remaining midfielders in the side.
Jaxon East, Marcus Totham and Daniel Clee all know how to find the ball, while Aiden Domic and Mahli King have kicked a few goals each this season.
But overall, on current form, this side is outmatched by their St Mary’s counterparts and have a lot of ground to make up if they want to pull off a win.
Our tip: St Mary’s
WHAT WE LEARNED ROUND 3
A one-point thriller, a record scoreline and the Bombers getting back to their best were among the big talking points from NTFL Round 3.
PINT, St Mary’s, Nightcliff and Tiwi were the victors in the men’s premier league, while it was Nightcliff, St Mary’s, Palmerston and PINT who won in the women’s competition.
Read all the big talking points below.
Tiwi bring back excitement
The Tiwi Bombers’ place in Premier League has been questioned in recent years with the side only managing one win across three seasons.
But there’s no question the competition, and NT footy in general, is in a better place when Tiwi are in the mix.
Nothing is more exciting than a Tiwi side with their tails up, and for the first time in a long time we got that at TIO Stadium against the Palmerston Magpies.
Kim Kantilla was electric in a best on ground showing, while Karlson Kantilla, Brendan Kantilla and Stanley Tipiloura were all impressive as well.
It was the exciting footy the side have become famous for, but also a measured defensive display rarely seen by the side known for loving a shootout, and it could pay off as the season goes on.
There’s a number of reasons for Tiwi’s resurgence, but the biggest is the later Tiwi Island Football League season which has the players coming into the NTFL fitter than prior years.
Some fresh coaches as well as the return of Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, who has brought all his AFL experience to the side, are other key factors.
A win against a young Palmerston outfit, as well as a narrow 10-point loss to last year’s runners up Southern Districts, is a solid start for the Bombers.
However, they will know there are bigger mountains to climb if they want to contest finals this year, but this is still a better start than recent years.
They get another big challenge against Nightcliff in Round 4, where staying in the contest right the way through should be the target.
Wanderers lacking in opening halves
The Muk Muks haven’t been the favoured side in the past two weeks, but their first half showings have not reflected what they’re capable of.
Against both the Buffaloes and Nightcliff they conceded far too big a lead by half time, forcing the side to play catch up in ultimately losing causes.
The Buffaloes led 65-30 at half time in Round 2, and the Tigers were ahead 83-22 at the same stage in Round 3.
Wanderers fought back in both matches winning the second half of each, but the already established deficit meant they had lost the game by that stage.
There’s talent in this Muk Muk side with Jaxon East and Nathan Arbon both ball magnets, while Marlon Moltop and Mahli King found the goal.
That’s without having brought in some of their top line imports, such as Ed Simpson, who played against Buffs but not Tigers, and Brodie Newman, who has yet to feature.
But for some reason they aren’t able to switch into gear in time for the start of the match as their opposition is able to.
They fix that and perhaps this Wanderers side will be able to take on the top sides, otherwise they’re in for a tough stretch of matches.
Meanwhile, Nightcliff were just far too efficent when on top, moving the ball swiftly out of the midfield to their forwards who were scoring from everywhere.
They have St Mary’s, Waratah, PINT and Districts before their Round 8 bye, arguably the toughest run of matches of any side in the comp.
PINT dig deep
The Greenants had perhaps their most important NTFL win in their short history when they held off a charge home from the reigning premiers to win by single point.
PINT led for the majority of the match at Gardens Oval spurred on by a constantly busy Steven Motlop out of the midfield.
But as in Round 1 they started to fade late in the match, and when Waratah scored four goals in a row to start the fourth quarter it looked like history would repeat itself.
However, they stuck in and a long bomb from Motlop as well as a goal from a crowded Elliott Chalmers sealed the deal for the Greenants.
Former Wanderers players such as Warwick Williams and Thomas Motlop were other standouts.
Coach Shannon Motlop said it was the type of win his side needed after previous defeats coming under similar circumstances.
However, they like everyone will need to get better as the season wears on with a late fade like that potentially becoming the difference between a side making finals and not.
They now have a tough match against a win-hungry Southern Districts, in what should be a real test of where each sides are at in the early stages of the season.
But for now the Greenants stand on two wins from three games, not too far off where they were last season with one win and one draw.
The skill has been there all along, the issue is sustaining themselves not just four quarters of a match but for a whole season.
PINT women’s smothering defence
PINT remain the side to beat in the women’s premier league, particularly after beating Waratah in the grand final rematch.
And while their much-talked about forward line has been key once again, their smothering defence should be just as celebrated.
They’ve conceded just 55 points from three games, all against quality opposition including Waratah, 2021-22 premiers Buffaloes and the Nightcliff Tigers
PINT denied the Tigers plenty of scoring opportunities through their all-encompassing defence in Round 2.
That same Nightcliff outfit went on to put a record 40.16 (256) to 0.0 (0) score against Wanderers in Round 3, proof that despite the skill gap the Tigers could have done more vs the Queenants.
Again against Waratah the Queenants dominated defensively with Zoe McWhinney perhaps their best on ground for the match.
It is early days in the season, but the big tester for PINT’s title defence will come in Round 5 when they face St Mary’s, who are undefeated themselves.
Nightcliff’s record score
In itself the Nightcliff destruction of Wanderers in the women’s competition is worth a mention as it was a record score line.
Cassie McWilliam was the star in front of goal for the Tigers scoring 12 goals, making the most of everything that came her way from her mids.
She wasn’t the only major benefactor with Mickayla Ward scoring nine goals, Sophie Berry getting five, and three each going to Sophie Hatzismalis and Jacqueline Anyon-Smith.
To their credit, Wanderers never stopped all day and never stopped trying despite the result similar to the fate they suffered in Rounds 1 and 2 as well.
There are great sportswomen across their list including Ivana Schober, who has starred in netball and league, and Jayla Thorne, a real up-and-comer in basketball.
These are two outfits undertaking very different journeys in the 2023-24 season, one focused on making finals by any means and the other looking to build its group.
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