At the start of another financial year, it is common for investors to get caught up in forecasts on what is likely to happen in investment markets. To show how misleading they can be, it’s worth looking at what was forecast this time last year.

Twelve months ago, the sentiment was bearish – interest rates were rising quickly, inflation was at 30-year highs, geopolitical tension was everywhere and a recession seemed imminent. The inference was that it would be a terrible year for shares. What in fact played out was returns north of 10 per cent for all leading sharemarkets.