After rallies across equities, bonds and credit, lower returns are likely. Investors caught up in tech stocks and bond assumptions need to take a closer look at conflicting scenarios at a time of great economic uncertainty, where even the smallest changes can trigger big market movements.

A common question is whether the market is pricing in expected conditions. The danger here is that in the short term, markets are mostly attuned to reacting to unanticipated historic data – such as better-than-expected labour or inflation outcomes – rather than forecasting future events.