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Christopher Joye

Expect more pain in stocks and commercial real estate

As risk-free government bond yields surge towards 5 per cent thanks to higher-for-longer interest rates, there are profound consequences for the price of everything.

In August 2020, the US 10-year government bond yield sat at just 0.5 per cent. That was arguably peak cheap money – the apogee of the “low-rates-for-long” paradigm. Fast-forward a few years, and the US 10-year yield pierced a staggering 4.8 per cent this week, a gigantic lift from the 3.3 per cent level that prevailed as recently as April 2023.

This sent shockwaves through lackadaisical valuations of asset classes that price off this risk-free “discount rate”, including listed equities, venture capital, infrastructure, real estate, junk bonds and private credit, which are only reluctantly adjusting to the new normal of structurally elevated cash rates.

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Christopher Joye is a portfolio manager with Coolabah Capital, which invests in securities, including those discussed in his column. Connect with Christopher on Twitter.

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    Original URL: https://www.afr.com/wealth/personal-finance/expect-more-pain-in-stocks-and-commercial-real-estate-20231004-p5e9th