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US recession

April

The IMF’s Tobias Adrian.

Financial crisis seen as distant threat at IMF meeting

Many experts believe Donald Trump’s trade chaos could trigger the next financial crisis. But the bankers at the IMF spring meeting largely disagreed.

Donald Trump’s trade policies have sent the ASX and Wall Street through a wild few days.

Goldman’s 73-minute recession says everything about a reeling market

Was it The Art of the Deal, or just Donald Trump blinking in the face of a bond market shock? Either way, it’s been a day of whiplash for traders and brokers.

Trillions of dollars were wiped from Wall Street over just two days last week. Markets have see-sawed ever since.

The four tiers of fear for investors in a market meltdown

From a “garden-variety pullback” to “major crisis”, analysts at RBC Capital Markets are war-gaming where the Trump tariff volatility could take Wall Street.

The S&P 500 slumped 5.97 per cent on Friday, closing out its worst week since the COVID pandemic.

Investors brace for $115b ASX wipeout amid ‘peak uncertainty’

Futures indicate Australian shares will sink 4.3 per cent at the open on Monday as panic flares that the world’s largest economy is headed for a recession.

March

US economic data are diverging wildly, fuelling a debate over whether rising anxiety from President Donald Trump’s trade policies will push a moderating economy into a serious downturn.

US data begs the question: Is a slowdown coming?

Diverging economic numbers have experts worried that Donald Trump is leading America into a serious downturn.

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November 2024

Fund manager Cathie Wood says interest rates will still need further cutting as corporate tax cuts take time to pass through Congress.

Cathie Wood says Trump will be the best boost for US in 40 years

The investment manager says Donald Trump’s tax cuts will stimulate the US economy, but companies will put investments on hold until they see the details.

September 2024

Jerome Powell opted for a bigger rate cut than many had expected.

Powell’s jumbo rate cut is a big insurance policy

This super-sized rate reduction is the Federal Reserve chairman’s bid to cement his legacy as he tries to nail a soft economic landing.

August 2024

The RBA now alleges it will hit 2.9 per cent by December 2025.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s credibility is shot

The central bank’s hawkish pivot has no credibility given it is not willing to do the bare minimum and raise interest rates in line with global peers.

A Republican sweep over Kamala Harris would give Donald Trump control of the White House, Congress and Senate, giving him unfettered power to pursue his agenda, says Marko Papic.

There’s ‘only one outcome’ that really matters, and it’s not Trump v Harris

Calmer markets mean investors are back to worrying about US politics and the Middle East conflict. But this leading strategist says both fears are overdone. 

The bears were on the march on Monday.

ASX investors have been caught out by a brutal bear panic

This isn’t just investors fretting about bad news. It’s investors fretting about bad news and panicking about the fact they are simply not positioned for it.

A trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Friday.

US recession rumblings to roil ASX

The Australian sharemarket is set for its worst two-day sell-off in two years after jobs data in the US confirmed traders’ biggest fears of a worsening economy.

Wall Street is now starting to panic about a recession it is not postioned for.

Why recession panic is gripping the markets

Global markets are being lashed by a perfect storm of recession fears, volatility and AI scepticism. But there’s a key reason it threatens to turn into panic. 

May 2024

Republicans Greg and Jamie Luttrull did not vote in 2022 because they did not like the Republican Senate candidate. Now, with a baby and a mortgage, they say President Joe Biden doesn’t offer them what they are looking for.

The number that sums up Biden’s biggest economic problem

While price rises have cooled from more than 9 per cent to 3.4 per cent, household budgets have not recovered since Biden took office.

April 2024

Kevin Hassett, former chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

Trump’s Fed chairman option opposes rate cuts this year

Kevin Hassett is a frontrunner to become Federal Reserve chairman if Donald Trump is elected. He says inflation remains sticky and isn’t being measured properly.

People from Mexico at the US border in Texas.

Immigration politically toxic, but it’s helping drive US growth

Immigration has been good for the US economy, just as an out-of-control border becomes the No.1 issue for voters in some states and No.2 in swing states.

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February 2024

Migrants wait in line to be processed at the US-Mexico border in May.

Immigration could save the US from recession. But there’s a catch

The immigration crisis is fuelling economic growth, according to experts. Others say it can burden cities with huge costs and drive down productivity and wages

Households have continued to pull back on spending for non-essential items as inflation and interest rates bite.

Amazon economists say they can spot a recession in real time

Two economists at the tech giant say they have a model that allows them to identify a recession in the US and Europe.

January 2024

Shoppers in New York. The US economy continues to grow, but consumer are easing off.

How much longer can the US avoid recession?

Job cuts and softer spending may be the warning signs that it’s too early to say the world’s biggest economy will continue to expand this year.

The US consumer is still strong, but growth has slowed in the fourth quarter.

Don’t be too quick to celebrate latest US economic data

There might not be a crash landing for the US economy, but it’s too early to say it is safely back on the tarmac. Much depends on jobs and spending this year.

December 2023

How were so many economists so wrong about a US recession?

There is a reason that so many economists have been predicting a recession in the US — and it is not because they are out of touch.

Original URL: https://www.afr.com/topic/us-recession-6fuj