April
Financial crisis seen as distant threat at IMF meeting
Many experts believe Donald Trump’s trade chaos could trigger the next financial crisis. But the bankers at the IMF spring meeting largely disagreed.
Goldman’s 73-minute recession says everything about a reeling market
Was it The Art of the Deal, or just Donald Trump blinking in the face of a bond market shock? Either way, it’s been a day of whiplash for traders and brokers.
The four tiers of fear for investors in a market meltdown
From a “garden-variety pullback” to “major crisis”, analysts at RBC Capital Markets are war-gaming where the Trump tariff volatility could take Wall Street.
Investors brace for $115b ASX wipeout amid ‘peak uncertainty’
Futures indicate Australian shares will sink 4.3 per cent at the open on Monday as panic flares that the world’s largest economy is headed for a recession.
March
US data begs the question: Is a slowdown coming?
Diverging economic numbers have experts worried that Donald Trump is leading America into a serious downturn.
November 2024
Cathie Wood says Trump will be the best boost for US in 40 years
The investment manager says Donald Trump’s tax cuts will stimulate the US economy, but companies will put investments on hold until they see the details.
September 2024
Powell’s jumbo rate cut is a big insurance policy
This super-sized rate reduction is the Federal Reserve chairman’s bid to cement his legacy as he tries to nail a soft economic landing.
August 2024
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s credibility is shot
The central bank’s hawkish pivot has no credibility given it is not willing to do the bare minimum and raise interest rates in line with global peers.
There’s ‘only one outcome’ that really matters, and it’s not Trump v Harris
Calmer markets mean investors are back to worrying about US politics and the Middle East conflict. But this leading strategist says both fears are overdone.
ASX investors have been caught out by a brutal bear panic
This isn’t just investors fretting about bad news. It’s investors fretting about bad news and panicking about the fact they are simply not positioned for it.
US recession rumblings to roil ASX
The Australian sharemarket is set for its worst two-day sell-off in two years after jobs data in the US confirmed traders’ biggest fears of a worsening economy.
Why recession panic is gripping the markets
Global markets are being lashed by a perfect storm of recession fears, volatility and AI scepticism. But there’s a key reason it threatens to turn into panic.
May 2024
The number that sums up Biden’s biggest economic problem
While price rises have cooled from more than 9 per cent to 3.4 per cent, household budgets have not recovered since Biden took office.
April 2024
Trump’s Fed chairman option opposes rate cuts this year
Kevin Hassett is a frontrunner to become Federal Reserve chairman if Donald Trump is elected. He says inflation remains sticky and isn’t being measured properly.
Immigration politically toxic, but it’s helping drive US growth
Immigration has been good for the US economy, just as an out-of-control border becomes the No.1 issue for voters in some states and No.2 in swing states.
February 2024
Immigration could save the US from recession. But there’s a catch
The immigration crisis is fuelling economic growth, according to experts. Others say it can burden cities with huge costs and drive down productivity and wages
Amazon economists say they can spot a recession in real time
Two economists at the tech giant say they have a model that allows them to identify a recession in the US and Europe.
January 2024
How much longer can the US avoid recession?
Job cuts and softer spending may be the warning signs that it’s too early to say the world’s biggest economy will continue to expand this year.
Don’t be too quick to celebrate latest US economic data
There might not be a crash landing for the US economy, but it’s too early to say it is safely back on the tarmac. Much depends on jobs and spending this year.
December 2023
How were so many economists so wrong about a US recession?
There is a reason that so many economists have been predicting a recession in the US — and it is not because they are out of touch.