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US recession

This Month

Fund manager Cathie Wood says interest rates will still need further cutting as corporate tax cuts take time to pass through Congress.

Cathie Wood says Trump will be the best boost for US in 40 years

The investment manager says Donald Trump’s tax cuts will stimulate the US economy, but companies will put investments on hold until they see the details.

  • Updated
  • Matthew Cranston

September

Jerome Powell opted for a bigger rate cut than many had expected.

Powell’s jumbo rate cut is a big insurance policy

This super-sized rate reduction is the Federal Reserve chairman’s bid to cement his legacy as he tries to nail a soft economic landing.

  • Matthew Cranston

August

The RBA now alleges it will hit 2.9 per cent by December 2025.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s credibility is shot

The central bank’s hawkish pivot has no credibility given it is not willing to do the bare minimum and raise interest rates in line with global peers.

  • Christopher Joye
A Republican sweep over Kamala Harris would give Donald Trump control of the White House, Congress and Senate, giving him unfettered power to pursue his agenda, says Marko Papic.

There’s ‘only one outcome’ that really matters, and it’s not Trump v Harris

Calmer markets mean investors are back to worrying about US politics and the Middle East conflict. But this leading strategist says both fears are overdone. 

  • Updated
  • James Thomson
The bears were on the march on Monday.

ASX investors have been caught out by a brutal bear panic

This isn’t just investors fretting about bad news. It’s investors fretting about bad news and panicking about the fact they are simply not positioned for it.

  • James Thomson
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A trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Friday.

US recession rumblings to roil ASX

The Australian sharemarket is set for its worst two-day sell-off in two years after jobs data in the US confirmed traders’ biggest fears of a worsening economy.

  • Joshua Peach
Wall Street is now starting to panic about a recession it is not postioned for.

Why recession panic is gripping the markets

Global markets are being lashed by a perfect storm of recession fears, volatility and AI scepticism. But there’s a key reason it threatens to turn into panic. 

  • Updated
  • James Thomson

May

Republicans Greg and Jamie Luttrull did not vote in 2022 because they did not like the Republican Senate candidate. Now, with a baby and a mortgage, they say President Joe Biden doesn’t offer them what they are looking for.

The number that sums up Biden’s biggest economic problem

While price rises have cooled from more than 9 per cent to 3.4 per cent, household budgets have not recovered since Biden took office.

  • Updated
  • Matthew Cranston

April

Kevin Hassett, former chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

Trump’s Fed chairman option opposes rate cuts this year

Kevin Hassett is a frontrunner to become Federal Reserve chairman if Donald Trump is elected. He says inflation remains sticky and isn’t being measured properly.

  • Matthew Cranston
People from Mexico at the US border in Texas.

Immigration politically toxic, but it’s helping drive US growth

Immigration has been good for the US economy, just as an out-of-control border becomes the No.1 issue for voters in some states and No.2 in swing states.

  • Matthew Cranston

February

Migrants wait in line to be processed at the US-Mexico border in May.

Immigration could save the US from recession. But there’s a catch

The immigration crisis is fuelling economic growth, according to experts. Others say it can burden cities with huge costs and drive down productivity and wages

  • Matthew Cranston
Households have continued to pull back on spending for non-essential items as inflation and interest rates bite.

Amazon economists say they can spot a recession in real time

Two economists at the tech giant say they have a model that allows them to identify a recession in the US and Europe.

  • Alex Tanzi

January

Shoppers in New York. The US economy continues to grow, but consumer are easing off.

How much longer can the US avoid recession?

Job cuts and softer spending may be the warning signs that it’s too early to say the world’s biggest economy will continue to expand this year.

  • Updated
  • Matthew Cranston
The US consumer is still strong, but growth has slowed in the fourth quarter.

Don’t be too quick to celebrate latest US economic data

There might not be a crash landing for the US economy, but it’s too early to say it is safely back on the tarmac. Much depends on jobs and spending this year.

  • Matthew Cranston

December 2023

How were so many economists so wrong about a US recession?

There is a reason that so many economists have been predicting a recession in the US — and it is not because they are out of touch.

  • Tyler Cowen
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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell doesn’t spend much time in the Oval Office.

Anyone seen that US recession?

The US economy avoided a recession this year but, if history is any guide, it’s still a possibility.

  • Matthew Cranston
US Fed chair Jerome Powell gives a press conference this week after the bank’s interest rate decision.

Strong jobs market holds back Fed rate cuts

Employment growth is still key to predicting the Federal Reserve’s path to interest rate cuts, as Jerome Powell faces intense pressure to reveal his plan.

  • Matthew Cranston

October 2023

United Auto Workers members march through downtown Detroit, Friday, Sept. 15, 2023. The UAW is conducting a strike against Ford, Stellantis and General Motors. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Why a 36pc pay rise at US car makers won’t inflame inflation

The wage jump over four years demanded by US car workers would lift inflation only slightly, according to new analysis from Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan.

  • Matthew Cranston

September 2023

Since the 1950s, recessions have been accompanied by much higher inflation than soft landings.

Bank stocks 17pc overvalued based on bonds

New research that extends the equity risk premium framework to bank stocks implies they face downside risks.

  • Christopher Joye
About 60 per cent of US mortgages are under 4 per cent interest. As the current rate rises to more than 7.2 per cent fewer want to move and trigger refinancing.

How first home buyers are keeping the US market alive

Few Americans are selling their homes as about 60 per cent of mortgages are locked in to low rates, but first home buyers are still entering the market.

  • Matthew Cranston

Original URL: https://www.afr.com/topic/us-recession-6fuj