US economic data are diverging wildly, fuelling a debate over whether rising anxiety from President Donald Trump’s trade policies will push a moderating economy into a serious downturn.
Surveys of sentiment among households and businesses, known as “soft data”, warn of a marked slowdown ahead as Trump pushes forward with tariffs and steep cuts to federal spending. But “hard data” from government statistics, such as employment and manufacturing, suggest those fears – potentially including stagflation or even recession – are overblown.
