National Australia Bank group chief economist Alan Oster puts the odds of the Reserve Bank pulling off a soft landing for the economy at 60:40 – though not if it takes the official interest rate well above 3 per cent.

Goldman Sachs’ top forecaster Andrew Boak has pencilled in a 25 per cent chance of a recession, while Vanguard’s Alexis Gray thinks a recession in the next few years is a 50:50 proposition.