Five economists have broken with the pack and think the Reserve Bank will resist cutting interest rates this month. If they’re right, it will be the biggest upset in economic forecasting since 2015.

US President Donald Trump’s chaotic trade policies are yet another reason for the RBA to keep interest rates on hold, they say. A benign inflation report last week prompted bond traders to price in an 84 per cent chance the central bank will lower the cash rate to 4.1 per cent at the first 2025 policy meeting on February 18.