Inflation is not falling fast enough to prevent central banks in Australia and the northern hemisphere from continuing to raise interest rates despite an increasing risk of recession, economic data this week is expected to show.

Australia’s monthly consumer price index for May will be released on Wednesday and will show how the Reserve Bank’s four percentage points of rate increases over the last 13 months is working to bring inflation back down to target. The market expects CPI to slow to 6.1 per cent from April’s 6.8 per cent, driven by lower fuel, travel and house prices.