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Patrick Commins

November 2019

A decade in here's what Patrick Commins learnt.

Markets, manias and modern-day fortune-telling

On my last day, allow me the indulgence of laying out some things I have gleaned from my spot as a privileged outsider in the marbled halls of high finance, writes Patrick Commins.

October 2019

US Fed boss Jay Powell indicated it would take a lot to get more easing, but much more to get a hike.

Markets see a dove behind the Fed's 'hawkish cut'

If Federal Reserve boss Jay Powell hoped to sell a message of a central bank on hold, investors weren't buying it.

Futures traders believe RBA rates at 0.75 per cent may be low enough.

Markets say rate cut cycle might be over

Wednesday's inflation data has left markets unconvinced the RBA needs to cut again. Economists disagree.

RBA boss Philip Lowe knows how important it is that Australians believe inflation will, one day, return to target.

The RBA cannot lose control of the inflation narrative

In the twilight of the central banking gods, monetary policy is reduced to shadow boxing.

  • Updated
Traders are betting on an inflection point in the global economic narrative.

The winds of change blow through markets

After a fraught August, a palpable shift in mood among investors has put stocks back within reach of record highs. But this new-found optimism may be misplaced.

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Investors hoping for an end to the saga of Brexit negotiations will have been disappointed.

Improved mood around the pound to stay despite Brexit vote delay

The weekend's delay of a key Brexit withdrawal agreement should result in some selling in the UK currency, but it should retain much of gains made in the past two weeks as a no deal exit still looks unlikely.

There is a degree of angst in the labour market not captured by the official jobless stats.

Tracking the new adjusted misery index

This week confirmed a record streak of jobs growth, but structural shifts in the labour market mean this is not the unalloyed good news of times past.

Outgoing ECB president Mario Draghi is 'the last great central banker' and marks the end of an era, Citi's chief European economist says.

The end of the era of the almighty central banker

A former special advisor to ECB boss Mario Draghi explains why monetary policy has lost traction and yet central bankers keep easing.

There seems a consensus that the banks are making too much money - so how much should they make?

How profitable should the big banks be?

There seems to be a consensus that the banks are making too much money - so how much should they make?

Investors should temper their hope around Brexit and US-China trade deals.

Uncertainty remains as long as Trump tweets

Investors are happy to buy into hopes of a resolution to two of the most intractable global uncertainties - Brexit and the trade wars - but scepticism remains that the latest agreement doesn’t represent much more than a truce in a conflict which has smashed business confidence around the world.

A much much more important question is how deep a recession will be, says Karen Ward.

US-China trade conflict 'the most systemic risk' for global economy

Donald Trump's escalating trade war with China is the biggest threat to the global economy, says JPMorgan chief European market strategist Karen Ward.

This is crucial: high equity valuations can be justified by low rates only as long as we don't have a severe downturn or recession.

Are Australian shares too expensive?

Shares still look reasonable value if you believe monetary easing remains effective today and that fiscal stimulus will come to the rescue tomorrow.

Wall Street fell again overnight.

Investors sweat on the final domino to fall

The storm that swept through global markets this week shows just how much this bull market depends on the health of the American consumer.

Whatever the angst around the implications of further rate cuts, easier monetary policy still means higher asset prices.

Rate cuts work their magic for shares again as bond proxies fly

Economists might be agonising over whether rate cuts will do anything to boost the economy. For investors, the RBA's power to move markets is undiminished.

September 2019

Low and stable inflation is no worry, but bond markets signal the RBA risks losing control of inflationary expectations.

Why low inflation does and doesn't matter

RBA boss Philip Lowe has said that the average Aussie doesn't care about inflation slightly below target and nor does the bank - so why is he about to cut rates again?

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A combination of improvements at home and overseas should see Australia's economic performance improve over the second half of this year and into the next.

RBA gets GDP growth wrong, but says it will pick up

The Reserve Bank is talking up the potential for a 'gentle turning point' in the economy. Market economists agree: they predict better times ahead.

David Rowe cartoon.

Stockmarket returns in a world of negative rates

By pushing official rates below zero, central banks have altered the way key financial assets perform through the cycle. What's less clear is what happens next.

The threat of impeachment hearings against US President Donald Trump adds to uncertainty, but there are bigger worries for investors.

Trump impeachment talk a 'sideshow' for markets

Investors didn't respond well to news of plans to initiate impeachment hearings into President Donald Trump, but there are more pressing concerns for markets.

Getting businesses to invest the vast pool of savings is the key to escaping the low rate world, RBA governor Philip Lowe said.

Lowe warns rates could stay low 'for a long, long time'

The governor fielded many questions, but returned to one theme: how to get businesses willing to expand, invest, innovate and hire.

Main Street is more exposed to Wall Street than has historically been the case.

How what happens on Wall Street matters more than ever

American households are more exposed to movements in capital markets than in the past, suggesting a sharemarket crash would have an outsized economic impact.

Original URL: https://www.afr.com/by/patrick-commins-j7gav