Derby Day: Best bets, analysis, quadrella, betting strategy
Leading form analyst Michael Manley gives you four peach $50 betting strategies, a handful of best bets, throws in his best two quaddies and then runs the rule over the big Derby players. What more do you need for Derby Day?
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Leading form analyst Michael Manley is sticking with the Sydney three-year-old form heading into the $2 million Victoria Derby, with Manley confident Shadow Hero will continue his rich vein of form.
Check out all his betting options and suggestions as we prepare for arguably spring’s biggest raceday.
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DERBY DAY
Gates open: 8.30am
First race: 11.45am
Victoria Derby: 3.45pm
Last race: 5.15pm
Track: Good (4)
Rail: True
Weather: 22C thunderstorm in morning and afternoon.
BEST BET
ZOUTORI (R1, No.4 $2.20)
Powered away to win first-up and followed that with a third to Sunlight and Santa Ana Lane both over this track and distance. Looks placed to win.
NEXT BEST
SHADOW HERO (R7, No.1 $3.10)
Ran down Cox Plate runner-up Castelvecchio to win the win the Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick which is great form. Shapes as if he’ll run out the 2500m.
PIPPIE (R9, No.4 $5)
Forgive her last start failure where she had excuses. She won her three previous starts in brilliant fashion and she loves it wet.
BEST EACH-WAY
MIAMI BOUND (R2, No.2 $7)
Not disgraced last start at Caulfield and back to her own sex. She’s much better suited over 2000m at Flemington and looks nice each-way odds.
BEST ROUGHIE
LONG JACK (R7, No.8 $19)
Came from well back and won the Geelong Classic with something in hand. Bred to run out the 2500m.
THE TRAINER
SAM FREEDMAN
(Assistant to father Anthony)
GROUNDSWELL (R3, No.2 $3.30)
“It’s hard to split the pair. He’s improved out of the run in the Caulfield Guineas and is super condition. He’s got a good turn of foot and should go close.”
HEIRBORN (R3, No.5 $4.80)
“His chances will improve if the track is rain affected. He has a different form line and we think he’ll be suited at the mile.”
WARNING (R7, No.4 $8.50)
“We think 2500m at Flemington should be perfect for him. If he gets a strong tempo which he had when he won at Flemington he’ll run a big race.”
GIFT OF POWER (R9, No.7 $10)
“She’s a really consistent mare but she can be quite temperamental. We’ve taken the tongue tie off here as she played up in the gates last start. She’s won eight races on wet tracks so she loves the rain. If she jumps cleanly we’re expecting a bold run.”
THE QUADDIE
LEG 1: 2,5,6,12
LEG 2: 1,3,4,10,11
LEG 3: 5,6,8,11,12,13,14,15
LEG 4: 2,4
$100 flexi for 31.25%
$50 FOUR PLAY
R1 11.45AM: TAB STAKES (1200M)
$50 win ZOUTORI (R1, No. 4) at $2.20
ZOUTORI has the right form to set punters off on the right foot for the carnival. His two runs this time at this track and distance have produced a first-up win and then a third behind two of Australia’s best sprinters in Sunlight and Santa Ana Lane.
R2 12.20PM WAKEFUL STAKES (2000M)
$25 each-way MIAMI BOUND at $6/$2
MIAMI BOUND didn’t look comfortable at Caulfield last start when she finished a well beaten fourth behind Thought Of That. She’ll be much better suited at Flemington. She carries three kilos less than Flit and she looks a nice each-way bet.
R7 3.45PM VICTORIA DERBY (2500M)
$30 win SHADOW HERO at $3.20
$10 each-way LONG JACK at $19/$4.40
SHADOW HERO defeated subsequent runner-up in the Cox Plate Castelvecchio at his last start in the Spring Champion Stakes which reads well for this. LONG JACK won the Geelong Classic with something in hand and he’s got the pedigree to run the 2500m right out.
R9 5.15PM FURPHY SPRINT (1100M)
$50 win PIPPIE at $4.60
Brilliant sprinting mare who has been freshened up since she failed at Caulfield where she had excuses. Her three prior wins were dynamic and she loves it wet.
BETTING INFO
Derby Day: Race-by-race analysis and tips
Derby Day: Five races you cannot miss
Quinny’s tips: Shadow has rivals covered
Weekend best bets: Fly high with top guns
VICTORIA DERBY
BEST CHANCES
SHADOW HERO
He could be a star. He held off the challenge of subsequent Cox Plate runner-up Castelvecchio in the Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick which is a great form line for this. His trainer Mark Newnham has always had this race in mind and this is only his fourth run this preparation.
LONG JACK
Ridden back in the Geelong Classic and outsprinted his rivals in the straight to win with something in hand. He’s got the pedigree to run out this trip. Murray Baker has trained a Victoria Derby winner previously.
THOUGHT OF THAT
He’s destroyed his opposition in his two runs since the blinkers have gone on leading throughout each time. The controversial jockey change from noted front running jockey Linda Meech to Mark Zahra suggests they don’t want to lead. Could be a real star.
WARNING
No match for Thought Of That at Caulfield last start but this is a different scenario. He sprinted home quickly to win at Flemington before that and he should be suited by 2500m. Also has Damien Oliver on.
SOUL PATCH
Another colt who could be a star. Blinkers went on last week in the Vase at The Valley and he thrashed his rivals. If he can reproduce the same finishing sprint he’ll go close.
BEST ROUGHIE
RELUCENT
Worked hard to share the lead in the Geelong Classic and was left in front a long way out. From a fitness view point that would have topped him off nicely and from barrier four he should get a nice run. He has Hugh Bowman on who has won this race three times.
THE SPEED
THOUGHT OF THAT (3) is likely to lead but if he doesn’t it’s a guessing game. INDEPENDENT ROAD (7) should push forward. SHADOW HERO (1) is likely to be on the pace. SOUTHERN MOON (10) and RELUCENT (11) should also go forward.
THE STRATEGY
Back SHADOW HERO to win as he might be too good for his rivals. LONG JACK looks nice each-way value.
HISTORY
The Victoria Derby is a graveyard for favourites. Only two have won in the past ten years. Seven of the last ten winners have drawn inside barrier seven. Damien Oliver who rides Warning has won the race five times.
THE TRAINER
MARK NEWNHAM
SHADOW HERO
“I’m very happy with his preparation which has gone to plan without any interruptions. Everything about him to me suggests he’ll stay the distance and he’s a class act.”
THE TIPS
1. SHADOW HERO
2. Long Jack
3. Thought Of That
4. Warning
MORE NEWS
Melbourne Cup: Everything you need to know
Melbourne Cup order of entry: Who will miss out?
SuperCoach: Derby Day tips, trade advice
COOLMORE STUD STAKES
BEST CHANCES
BIVOUAC
He’s taken his game to another level as a three-year-old with three wins from five including the Golden Rose Stakes wherehe defeated Yes Yes Yes and Exceedance. Luckless last start in the Manikato Stakes. He’s the one they’ve got to catch.
EXCEEDANCE
Team Hawkes have targeted this race and have placed blinkers on him for the first time. He defeated Bivouac first-up on aheavy track in August at Randwick. He jumped out well recently at Flemington. Also he has Barrier 11 which might be the bestplace to be.
LIBERTINI
Another Sydneysider who has been set for this. Her best win was first-up last campaign when she ran a sensational time over1200m at Randwick. Also has Oliver on.
COSMIC FORCE
Brilliant Sydney colt who led throughout to win the Roman Consul Stakes at Randwick last start in race record time and thatevent is often a good lead in to this race. Team Snowden have a big opinion of him.
ROUGHIE
BROOKLYN HUSTLE
She hasn’t won since her debut but she’s been unlucky in most of them. She’s fitter for two runs back from a spell. If thepressure goes on a long way out she might be able to swoop over the top of her rivals.
THE SPEED
SARTORIAL SPLENDOUR only knows one way and he’s likely to lead. COSMIC FORCE, BIVOUAC and LIBERTINI will also be on the speed.EXCEEDANCE should sit mid-field and sprint home powerfully.
HISTORY SAYS
The last favourite to win was Zoustar in 2013. Last year Sunlight finished seventh in the Manikato Stakes before she won this.Seven fillies have won the race this century.
THE TRAINER
CHRIS WALLER
ACCESSION
“Accession I think is capable of winning the race. I think a tough 1200 metres will suit. His Dad won up the straight. He’sa very similar type to Brazen Beau who is doing a great job. I’ve just found it’s not always the favourite that wins the race.”
THE STRATEGY
EXCEEDANCE looks a good each-way play. MICROPHONE also looks over the odds.
THE TIPS
1.EXCEEDANCE
2.Bivouac
3.Libertini
4.Microphone
SATURDAY QUADRELLA UP CLOSE AND PERSONAL
LEG 1: RACE 6
BIVOUAC (2) and EXCEEDANCE (6) are must haves. They are quality colts. Brilliant three-year-old filly LIBERTINI (12) has been freshened up and she ran a very quick time when she won first-up this campaign. COSMIC FORCE (5) won the Roman Consul Stakes at Randwick last start which is often a 1st Leg: 2,5,6,12
LEG 2: RACE 7
SHADOW HERO (1) is a must after defeating Castelvecchio at his last start. It’s a Victoria Derby though and favourites don’t have a great record so should go a little wider. THOUGHT OF THAT (3), WARNING (4) and SOUL PATCH (2) should be must inclusions. The placegetters from the Geelong Classic – LONG JACK (8), SOUTHERN MOON (10) and RELUCENT (11) should also be included.
2nd Leg: 1,2,3,4,6,10,11
LEG 3: RACE 8
The Cantala Mile is always a tough leg to crack and it won’t be any different this year. The Toorak quinella of FIERCE IMPACT (6) and NIGHT’S WATCH (8) need to be included. Sydney gallopers STAR OF THE SEAS (14), CASCADIAN (12) and ROCK (13) need to go in. Add ROYAL MEETING (5) and SIKANDARABAD (11).
3rd leg: 5,6,8,11,12,13,14,15,
LEG 4: RACE 9
Happy to come home with the last leg as the skinny one. PIPPIE (4) is a must have. She put together three easy wins before flopping last start at Caulfield where she had excuses. She’s drawn out which will suit and she loves a wet track. TOFANE (2) swooped home to win at Caulfield last start and no surprise to see her repeat that performance.
4th leg: 2,4
FIRST LEG: 2,5,6,12
SECOND LEG: 1,2,3,4,6,10,11
THIRD LEG: 5,6,8,11,12,13,14,15
FOURTH LEG: 2,4
$50 flexi for 13.02%
SKINNY QUADDIE
Just take the pair of BIVOUAC (2) and EXCEEDANCE (6) to start off the Skinny Quaddie. SHADOW HERO (1) could be a level above them in the Derby so take him one out. Narrow the third leg to four main chances which are FIERCE IMPACT (6), CASCADIAN (12), ROCK (13) and STAR OF THE SEAS (14). Come home with PIPPIE (4) one out.
FIRST LEG: 2,6
SECOND LEG: 1
THIRD LEG: 6,12,13,14
FOURTH LEG: 4
Cost $25 for 312.5%
AROUND THE TRACKS
RAY THOMAS (Daily Telegraph)
ROSEHILL
TALLY (R6, No. 1 $4)
Been racing well in stronger company and gets his opportunity.
Value bet: ZARDORO (R2, No. 4 $6.50)
NATHAN EXELBY (The Courier-Mail).
EAGLE FARM
FRANCISCA (R7, No. 12 $3.60)
She should be closer in the run this time and banking on her class comparative to her rivals being enough to see her break the run of outs.
Value bet: THE CARPENTER (R6, No. 8 $15)
MORPHETTVILLE
LINCOLN MOORE (The Advertiser).
SECRET BLAZE (R3, No. 4 $2.40)
Fitter for a nice return from a spell. Raced very well last campaign in stronger company and although over further might be good enough to hit back quickly jumping to the mile.
Value bet: MORVADA (R8, No. 2 $17)