Oil Reheated: Flemington best bets and race-by-race analysis with Michael Manley
Form analyst Michael Manley is tipping favourite backers to put the bookies on the back foot early on Derby Day and trainer Simon Zahra shares his confidence. BEST BETS, ANALYSIS
SuperRacing
Don't miss out on the headlines from SuperRacing. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Zoutori thrives down the famous Flemington straight, so punters won’t have to wait long to line their pockets with cash, according to leading Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley.
The four-year-old speedster followed his first-up win in fast time with a third to Sunlight and Santa Ana Lane both over this track and distance.
Manley says that’s great form for this and hasn’t hesitated in making Zoutori (Race 1) his best bet for the Derby Day.
Stream over 50 sports Live & On-Demand with KAYO SPORTS on your TV, computer, mobile or tablet. Just $25/month, no lock-in contract. Get your 14-day free trial and start streaming instantly >
BEST BET
ZOUTORI (R1, No. 4)
NEXT BEST
SOUND (R4, No. 2)
EARLY QUADDIE
1,2/1,2,5,14/1,2,3,4,6,13/2,6,7,15
$100 Flexi for 69.44%
BIG6
1,2,3,4,6,13/2,6,7,15/2,6/1,8/6,12,13,14/2,4
$100 Flexi for 13.02%
QUADDIE
Race 6: 2,5,6,12
Race 7: 1,2,3,4,10,11
Race 8: 5,6,8,11,12,13,14,15
Race 9: 2,4
$100 flexi for 26.04%
Derby Day: Five races you cannot miss
Quinny’s tips: Shadow has rivals covered
Weekend best bets: Fly high with top guns
RACE 1: 11.45AM TAB STAKES (1200M)
ZOUTORI (4) has emerged as a straight-track specialist at his last two starts with a win and then a third behind Sunlight and Santa Ana Lane. VIRIDINE (3) finished strongly to finish fourth at Caulfield last start being subsequent placegetter in The Everest, Trekking.
THE TRAINER: SIMON ZAHRA
ZOUTORI (No.4): “He’s going well. He’s bounced back from his last run and had a nice easy trial. If he’s good enough he’ll win. There’s no excuses.”
BET: ZOUTORI the win (Confidence level 9/10)
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Zoutori $2.15-$2.20 ($1500 @ $2.20, $200 x $500 e/w @ $2.20/$1.28, $500 @ $2.15, $500 @ $2.10); Renewal $7.50 unchanged ($2000 e/w @ $7.50/$2.20)
RACE 2: 12.20PM WAKEFUL STAKES (2000M)
Thousand Guineas winner FLIT (1) opened at $2.15 but has drifted. There’s been a good rally for Winx’s relation VEGAS JEWEL (5) who has firmed from $4.40 to $3.40. MIAMI BOUND (2) will be better suited at Flemington and is at nice each-way odds.
THE TRAINER: DANNY O’BRIEN
MIAMI BOUND (No.2): “I think she can run really well. She’s been set for this race and the Oaks and her fitness levels are spot on. She’ll be better suited at Flemington and her last run topped her off nicely for this.”
BET: MIAMI BOUND (2) each-way (Confidence 9/10)
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Flit $2.15-$2.40 ($1600 @ $2.40, $1300 @ $2.40); Vegas Jewel $4.40-$3.40 ($500 @ $4, $1000 @ $3.90)
RACE 3: 1PM CARBINE CLUB STAKES (1600M)
GROUNDSWELL (2) and DALASAN (1) finished third and fifth respectively at their last starts in the Caulfield Guineas which reads as excellent form for this. HEIRBORN (5) suffered his first defeat but lost no admirers when third at Caulfield last start. Big watch on Chris Waller’s KAVALMO (11) as he has a good record in this race.
THE TRAINER: JAMES CUMMINGS
HILO (No.7): “He galloped nicely at Flemington on Tuesday morning, his two wins have been here in Melbourne and he probably didn’t have things all his own way at Caulfield last start.”
BET: GROUNDSWELL (2) the win (Confidence 8/10)
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Groundswell $3.60-$3.70-$3.50 ($2,800 @ $3.70, $500 @ $3.60, $500 @ $3.50); Heirborn $5.50-$4.80 ($500 @ $5.50, $600 @ $5, $500 e/w @ $5/$1.90)
Deductions: Moreno 2c Win 1c Place
RACE 4: 1.40PM LEXUS HOTHAM STAKES (2500M)
SOUND (2) loomed as if he was going to be in the finish in the Caulfield Cup but was checked in the closing stages. HUSH WRITER (4) defeated CARIF (13) in the ATC St Leger and that form should be to the fore. Irish visitor DOWNDRAFT (1) finished third in the Moonee Valley Cup last week.
THE TRAINER: GAI WATERHOUSE
HUSH WRITER (No.4): “If we can do it with Cismontane (winner in 2017), I think we’ve got a bit of a chance with a horse that kicked their brains in when he won the St Leger in Sydney. I’m not being hush about him, I think he’s the real deal and I’m hoping he can get into the Cup.”
BET: SOUND each-way (Confidence 7/10)
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Downdraft $5-$4.60
RACE 5: 2.20PM EMPIRE ROSE STAKES (1600M)
Kiwi star MELODY BELLE (2) has won nine Group 1 races including her past three starts at that level. PRINCESS JENNI (7) was unlucky in the Toorak Handicap. FIDELIA (15) and SPANISH REEF (6) loves this track and distance.
THE TRAINER: SIMON ZAHRA
ARISTIA (No.3): “We’ve set her for the two races this week and everything has gone to plan so far. We’ll have to navigate our way around barrier one and that New Zealand horse Melody Belle is going to be hard to beat.”
BET: PRINCESS JENNI each-way (Confidence 7/10)
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Melody Belle $3.20-$3.50; Pohutukawa $7-$7.50-$7 ($1000 e/w @ $7.50/$2.70, $2000 @ $7, $300 x $2000 e/w
RACE 6: 3PM COOLMORE STUD STAKES (1200M)
Quality colts BIVOUAC (2) and EXCEEDANCE (6) clash again. It’s 2-1 in Bivouac’s favour with his defeat to Exceedance coming on a wet track. Exceedance has blinkers on and has also drawn out which should suit. Brilliant filly Sydney LIBERTINI (12) has also been set for this.
THE TRAINER: MIKE MORONEY
ALABAMA EXPRESS (No.8): “We’ve thrown in him the deep end but we think he’s shown enough to give it a go.”
BET: EXCEEDANCE each-way (Confidence 8.5/10)
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Microphone $13-$10; Bivouac $3-$3.20 ($1050 @ $3.10, $1,000 @ $3.10 TWICE, $600 @ $3.10, $500 @ $3.10); Exceedance $4.60-$4.40-$4.80 ($1,000 e/w @ $4.80/$1.90); Libertini $5.50-$5-$4.80
RACE 7: 3.45PM VICTORIA DERBY (2500M)
Although it’s a strong Victoria Derby, SHADOW HERO (1) has the form to suggest he could be a level above his rivals. At his last start he defeated subsequent Cox Plate runner-up Castelvecchio. LONG JACK (8) sprinted home to win the Geelong Classic comfortably. THOUGHT OF THAT (3) might be a star and WARNING (4) should be suited by Flemington and 2500m.
THE TRAINER: MARK NEWNHAM
SHADOW HERO (No.1): “I’m very happy with his preparation and I planned it for this to be his fourth run. Everything about him suggests to me he’ll stay the trip and he’s a class colt.”
BET: SHADOW HERO the win (Confidence 9/10)
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Shadow Hero $3-$3.50-$3.40 ($1000 @ $3.50, $2000 @ $3.40, $1,500 @ $3.40, $1000 @ $3.40 MULTIPLE TIMES, $1000 @ $3.30); Soul Patch $6-$4.40 ($1000 @ $6.50); Thought Of That $4-$4.20-$3.80-$3.90 ($750 @ $4.20, $600 @ $4.20, $500 @ $4.20 TWICE, $1000 @ $3.90); Southern Moon $13-$16. Deductions: Serious Liaison 2c Win 1c Place
RACE 8: 4.35PM KENNEDY CANTALA (1600M)
Every horse has claims. FIERCE IMPACT (6) proved too good in the Toorak Handicap and even though he’s drawn out he can win again. Three horses which ran well in the Epsom, ROCK (13), STAR OF THE SEAS (14) and CASCADIAN (12) should also be in the finish.
THE TRAINER: SAEED BIN SUROOR
ROYAL MEETING (No.5): “His first run in the G3 at Caulfield was very good considering he hadn’t run for one year. His work since has been good and he has improved a lot. He has shown us that he’s a very good horse and the mile will suit him better on Saturday. I expect him to run well.”
BET: FIERCE IMPACT each-way (Confidence 7/10)
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Nights Watch $8.50-$7 ($2000 @ $7.50 AVERAGED OUT, $500 @ $7 TWICE); Rock $11-$9.50; Star Of The Seas $15-$10-$9.50 ($500 @ $14, $250 e/w @ $13/$4.20, $500 @ $12, $500 @ $10); Chief Ironside $15-$12-$13 ($300 e/w @ $14/$4.60, $250 e/w @ $15/$4.80)
RACE 9: 5.15PM FURPHY SPRINT (1100M)
PIPPIE (4) put together three brilliant wins before last start failure where she had excuses. She’s been freshened since. She loves it wet. TOFANE (2) swooped home to win at Caulfield last start. Stablemates’ MANICURE (1), RESIN (3) and DEMERARA (6) all have good chances.
THE TRAINER: MIKE MORONEY
TOFANE (No.2): “I think this is a nice race for her. She’s trained on well and she’s run well down the straight in a jumpout.”
BET: PIPPIE the win (Confidence 9/10)
TAB MARKET MOVERS: Manicure $6.50-$5.50; Tofane $8.50-$6.50; Pippie $3.70-$4.60
MORE NEWS
Melbourne Cup: Everything you need to know
Melbourne Cup order of entry: Who will miss out?
SuperCoach: Derby Day tips, trade advice