Nick Quinn: Expert tips and betting analysis for Derby Day at Flemington and the Golden Eagle at Rosehill
Punting guru Nick Quinn believes the Victoria Derby favourite is an excellent price but but he’s tipping against the top elect in the Golden Eagle.
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TAB form expert Nick Quinn pinpoints the top betting opportunities on a bumper Derby Day at Flemington as well as the inaugural Golden Eagle at Rosehill.
QUINNY’S BEST PLAY
BEST BET: Flit (Flemington R2, No.1)
VALUE BET: Kavalmo (Flemington R3, No.11)
LAY OF THE DAY: Thought of that (Flemington R7, No.3)
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FLEMINGTON
RACE 3: CARBINE CLUB STAKES (1600m)
A strong race with two Caulfield Guineas runners heading the market.
Dalasan has a stack of ability and is still learning what it is all about. He overraced when he finished second in the Guineas Prelude and was posted wide in the Guineas when fifth.
Groundbreak is a progressive runner from the Freedman stable and ran a nice third in the Guineas Prelude.
The early money has come for the Chris Waller-trained Kavalmo but he’s accepted in both Sydney and Melbourne.
Kavalmo firmed from $26 into $9 in the all-in market after a big push from Waller.
He reopened at $15 after the final field was declared and firmed into $11.
Kavalmo, an outstanding winner at Wyong last start, would be a massive chance if they head to Flemington.
SUGGESTED BET: KAVALMO each-way
RACE 6: COOLMORE STUD STAKES (1200m)
Always a highlight race and this year is no exception.
Bivouac was backed from $4.20 into $3.20 in the days leading up to acceptances and reopened a $3 favourite in the final field.
After winning the Golden Rose impressively, Bivoac didn’t get clear air at the Valley last Friday night in the Group 1 Manikato Stakes.
Bivouac shapes as the runner to beat but the main danger appears to be the stablemate Microphone.
Microphone won the Group 1 Sires in the autumn and has already firmed from $13 into $10.
SUGGESTED BET: BIVOUAC the win
RACE 7: VICTORIA DERBY (2500m)
One of the best editions of the Victorian Derby in years.
Shadow Hero was as short as $2.10 in the all-in market but is now a $3.40 market leader.
He looks the ideal Derby horse after winning the Gloaming Stakes at Rosehill on September 28 and the Spring Champion Stakes at Randwick on October 12.
In the latter race, Shadow Hero held off Castelvecchio, who then ran second in the Cox Plate last Saturday.
Most years Shadow Hero would be a commanding favourite and his price looks appealing.
Thought Of That is now the clear second elect at $4.
He broke his maiden at Donald before spanking his rivals at Caulfield in the Norman Robinson.
Soul Patch shot into contention with a strong win in the Vase at Moonee Valley on Saturday.
He had his price slashed to $6 and has subsequently been backed into $4.60 since the barrier draw.
The Anthony Freedman-trained Warning is also a leading chance.
Warning won the Super Impose Stakes at Flemington on October 5 before finishing second to Thought Of That in the Caulfield Classic a fortnight later.
Geelong Classic winner Long Jack is a long shot hope.
SUGGESTED BET: SHADOW HERO the win
ROSEHILL
RACE 7: THE GOLDEN EAGLE (1500m)
Punters are stepping into Arcadia Queen to win the inaugural Golden Eagle.
They are forgiving of her performance in The Everest which came on the back of a sizzling win in the Theo Marks.
Arcadia Queen should improve stepping up to 1500m and the money is on her to bounce back, with the ex-WA mare firming from $4.40 into $2.80.
There are only two last start winners in the race, Tassie star The Inevitable who and Kolding who comes into the race having won the Group 1 Epsom last start.
Tassie gun The Inevitable is unbeaten this campaign, winning the lead-up Silver Eagle, and looks overs at $10.
Epsom Handicap winner Kolding has won six of his past seven and at $7 is the each-way play in the race.
SUGGESTED BET: KOLDING each-way