Federal election 2019: NSW must watch battles
Some of Australia’s top political analysts, who have given News Corp their predictions for 35 of the “must watch” battles of the election, say Malcolm Turnbull’s former seat will be up for grabs in one of the battles of the 2019 election, with experts divided on whether Kerryn Phelps can win.
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Malcolm Turnbull’s former seat will be up for grabs in one of the “must watch” battles of the 2019 election with experts divided on whether Kerryn Phelps can win.
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Tony Abbott is also facing the electoral fight of his life in Warringah where experts say his “technically safe” margin is “irrelevant” and “anything could happen”.
Some of Australia’s top political analysts, who have given News Corp their predictions for 35 of the “must watch” battles of the election, also say Immigration Minister David Coleman could be one of just four Coalition MPs in marginal seats to defy expectations on May 18 and hold their seat.
Election analyst Dr Kevin Bonham said Mr Abbott was “fairly wobbly” and predicted his “safe” 11.5 per cent margin wouldn’t mean anything against strongly backed independent Zali Steggall.
“The last election was a really half-baked effort by those seeking to unseat him,” Dr Bonham said.
“I think (the margin) is irrelevant. I think this is a really serious challenge this time.”
Dr Bonham added the former prime minister had a strong standing with Warringah voters and “it’s not going to be easy”.
“But the argument that he’s safe — I don’t think that holds water at all,” he said.
Griffith University political expert Paul Williams said Mr Abbott was “technically safe” on his margin but added “anything can happen” given his “polarising effect on the NSW Liberal party”.
“Small “L” Liberal voters are deserting the party over Turnbull’s dumping and a failure to adequately address climate change, and even many Libs in Abbott’s own branch wanted to dump him,” Dr Williams said.
“Given he’s facing a popular independent in Zali Steggall, and probably every other candidate preferencing against him, Abbott faces his toughest battle ever.
“But this is a big ask for Steggall who doesn’t quite command the presence of Kerryn Phelps.
“Abbott will probably just hold on, although that would be his last term.”
Veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, a visiting fellow at the Australian Catholic University, tipped the former prime minister to win.
“I give Tony Abbott a 60 per cent chance while I give Zali Steggall a 40 per cent chance,” he told News Corp
The experts were also divided on whether the Liberals could reclaim Wentworth after Dr Phelps won it in the October by-election triggered by Mr Turnbull quitting politics.
Mr Mackerras gave Liberal candidate Dave Sharma a 55 per cent chance of winning and Dr Phelps just a 45 per cent chance.
But Dr Williams said voters were still stinging over Mr Turnbull’s dumping. “Phelps should hang on and may get a small swing to her,” he said.
Australian National University’s Dr Jill Sheppard also tipped Dr Phelps to return.
“Kerryn Phelps typifies the current rush of prominent independent candidates: smart, economically conservative, socially liberal, and with a high profile that precedes their political career,” the politics expert said.
“If Wentworth voters believe that Phelps is an improvement on electing an automaton Liberal member, there is no reason she will not be returned to the House.”
Independent Rob Oakeshott is tipped to win in Cowper, while Labor is tipped to win in Gilmore and Robertson.
Lindsay is one of the seats the Liberals could potentially pick up, while Mr Coleman could buck the national trend in Banks to hold his seat.
Reid and Page are also marginal seats that could fall to Labor.
THE NINE SEATS YOU NEED TO WATCH IN NSW
● Gilmore
● Lindsay
● Cowper
● Banks
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