The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Mallee, held by Andrew Broad
A field of independents and a Liberal candidate are lining up to challenge the Nationals in Mallee where the so-called ‘sugar baby’ scandal has seen incumbent Andrew Broad quit politics.
Federal Election
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Mallee
Incumbent: Andrew Broad (retiring)
Margin: 19 per cent
Candidates:
Nationals: Anne Webster
Independent: Ray Kingston
Independent: Jason Modica
Liberal: Serge Petrovich
Local issues:
Energy policy, the Murray-Darling Basin Plan, cost of living, jobs, the economy, infrastructure, health and education.
MALLEE AND THE ‘SUGAR BABY’ FACTOR
A field of independents and a Liberal candidate are lining up to challenge the Nationals in Mallee where the so-called ‘sugar baby’ scandal has seen incumbent Andrew Broad quit politics.
Mr Broad’s departure and other issues for the National Party, such as Barnaby Joyce stepping down last year amid the firestorm over his relationship with ex-staffer Vikki Campion, could damage the party’s vote.
THE OTHER SEATS TO WATCH IN VICTORIA:
CORANGAMITE: Trouble ahead for Libs
CHISHOLM: Banks exit could determine result
DEAKIN: Sukkar’s seat could go either way
FLINDERS: The ugly fight of the federal election
HIGGINS: Wentworth-style battle for O’Dwyer’s seat
INDI: Will McGowan’s seat stay independent?
KOOYONG: Frydenberg under pressure
LA TROBE: Seat set to go to preferences again
MACNAMARA: ‘Anything can happen’ in Danby’s old seat
But the Nats have also pre-selected Dr Anne Webster — Mildura’s citizen of the year in its 2019 Australia Day Awards — as their candidate.
Webster runs a not-for-profit providing parenting support to disadvantaged young mums.
She will face a challenge from Melbourne-based criminal barrister Serge Petrovich, who is running for the Liberals.
Mildura deputy mayor Jason Modica and former Yarriambiack Shire mayor Ray Kingston will run against her as independents.
Kingston announced his decision to run last year less than 24 hours after Mr Broad announced his decision to quit politics, writing on Twitter: “Excited to announce that I’m running as the independent voice for Mallee. Nothing to do with recent events. It’s just become blindingly obvious we can do better.”
Modica will campaign on energy, climate change and water, big issues for growers and producers in the regional Victorian community.
Griffith University political expert Paul Williams told News Corp the Nationals “shouldn’t be in any trouble” with a solid margin of 19 per cent.
Veteran psephologist Malcolm Mackerras also predicted a Nationals win.
HOT TOPICS IN MALLEE: HEALTH AND INFRASTRUCTURE
Local infrastructure, health services and the Murray River are among the issues getting voters’ attention in Mallee.
Nationals candidate Anne Webster has had a reasonable response online with posts about upgrades to local sporting facilities, as well as her promise to tackle the shortage of medical professionals in the region, a social media analysis by News Corp and Storyful Australia shows.
Calls for “basics” such as acceptable health services, education, roads and telecommunications have gained traction for independent Ray Kingston.
Kingston also appears to be having more cut through online than independent Jason Modica.
WHAT WILL SWAY THE VOTE IN VICTORIA
Monash University political scientist Dr Zareh Ghazarian says issues within Victoria’s state Liberal party could spill over as people decide who they will vote for federally.
“Voters tend to be aware of the difference between state and federal governments and party leaders, so we would expect them to vote on what federal Labor has promised rather than their experience of the Andrews government,” he said.
However the bitter public divisions within Victorian Liberals since last November’s election loss would not endear them to voters, he said, and that instability - coupled with similar ructions at the federal level - “will play a big role in deciding who people vote for”.
Dr Ghazarian says infrastructure, the economy and employment will be the issues residents want to hear about pre-election.
“The trend in opinion polls over the last few months has been showing a swing towards the Labor Party. This means that any Liberal MP who holds their seat with a margin of five per cent or less is in for a hard time to keep their job,” he said.
“There is also a complication at this election. The Electoral Commission has undertaken a major redistribution of federal seats which has resulted in at least two Victorian seats currently held by the Liberal Party to be notionally Labor (ie. if the seat boundary was used at the 2016 election, Labor would have won it).”
Dr Ghazarian said because of this key seats Corangamite and Dunkley are deemed to be notionally Labor so both sitting MPs will be starting from a disadvantage.
“We would expect the Liberal Party to pour in resources and campaigning staff into these two seats in order to hold them. If it can’t hold these seats, the party will not be able to hold government,” he said.
Dr Ghazarian expects whoever takes Chisholm will win government.
“It is very difficult for individual MPs to resist a swing and, if it is as strong as opinion polls have suggested, these ultra marginal seats will be the first to go on election night,” he said.
- Additional reporting by Natasha Christian
Originally published as The seats to watch in the 2019 federal election: Mallee, held by Andrew Broad
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